ATL : INVEST 96L

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cycloneye
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ATL : INVEST 96L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:15 am

This is for the gale low in the northcentral Atlantic.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200911011408
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2009, DB, O, 2009110106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962009
AL, 96, 2009110106, , BEST, 0, 307N, 514W, 45, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 300, 200, 100, 300, 850, 0, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2009110112, , BEST, 0, 316N, 531W, 45, 998, DB, 34

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.

viewtopic.php?f=61&p=1939019#p1939019

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ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:23 am

WHXX01 KWBC 011418
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1418 UTC SUN NOV 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20091101 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091101 1200 091102 0000 091102 1200 091103 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.6N 53.1W 34.1N 56.0W 37.3N 57.1W 40.2N 56.9W
BAMD 31.6N 53.1W 32.9N 56.3W 35.0N 57.5W 37.4N 57.0W
BAMM 31.6N 53.1W 33.7N 56.1W 36.9N 56.8W 40.1N 55.6W
LBAR 31.6N 53.1W 33.5N 55.6W 35.1N 57.3W 36.1N 57.2W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091103 1200 091104 1200 091105 1200 091106 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 43.1N 56.1W 49.9N 49.6W 55.6N 42.2W 58.1N 35.2W
BAMD 40.1N 55.4W 47.6N 46.0W 52.4N 23.6W 43.5N 7.1W
BAMM 43.2N 53.3W 50.3N 42.1W 52.2N 24.1W 46.1N 9.4W
LBAR 37.4N 55.3W 41.1N 46.1W 43.0N 34.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 36KTS 35KTS 23KTS
DSHP 46KTS 36KTS 35KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 30.4N LONM12 = 49.6W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 46.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 300NM

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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:37 am

Quite a shallow low, although I don't see any frontal structure.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#4 Postby Crostorm » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:56 am

Image
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Re:

#5 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:03 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Quite a shallow low, although I don't see any frontal structure.


The front is occluded. Occluded lows aren't attached to the front. Question is - should such lows be named? They weren't in the past (prior to this decade). At least it's over warm water (unlike Grace).

I'm still pulling for our receptionist in the office hurricane pool. She's the only one with less than 10 named storms picked. She can still win the $100 if one more storm is named, but not if we get to 10. ;-)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:32 am

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters thinks about 96L.

96L is looking very photogenic, but is still extratropical. With 25C SSTs and plenty of thunderstorms firing up at the center, it will start to warm its core today, and will be a hybrid system by Monday. Whether it will cross the ill-defined magical line that causes it to be named "Ida" remains improbable at present, but it tough to forecast the thinking of the forecasters at NHC sometimes.

Jeff Masters
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#7 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:37 am

hey guys!!
Image

Image

I can smell Ida :ggreen:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#8 Postby caneflyer » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:42 am

Recently occluded lows are still attached to an occluded front, and in an occlusion some of the frontal boundaries get lifted off the surface, making them difficult to detect. Over time, however, these frontal boundaries can get mixed out, with the dissipation of the boundaries assisted by persistent convection. In the case of Grace, it seems as though there was ample time for the old frontal structure to mix out - it's not likely there was any such structure left by the time the system had developed a persistent eye/eyewall structure. But, without in situ measurements we will never know for sure. It does seems odd, though, that people would offer such strongly worded opinions in the absence of definitive data.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#9 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:46 am

By the way, I'm measuring a 4hr movement toward 290 deg. at 31.3 kts. It moved 125nm in that 4 hours. Quite fast!

5hr movement toward 293deg at 29 kts (146nm moved 1145Z-1645Z).
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 12:35 pm

Code Orange

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... REFER TO
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 1:42 pm

711
WHXX01 KWBC 011827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SUN NOV 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20091101 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091101 1800 091102 0600 091102 1800 091103 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.7N 55.4W 34.6N 57.9W 36.8N 59.0W 39.1N 58.9W
BAMD 32.7N 55.4W 33.7N 58.0W 35.2N 57.8W 37.4N 55.6W
BAMM 32.7N 55.4W 34.3N 58.1W 36.2N 58.1W 38.5N 56.0W
LBAR 32.7N 55.4W 34.3N 57.8W 35.2N 58.9W 36.4N 58.1W
SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 50KTS 48KTS
DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 50KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091103 1800 091104 1800 091105 1800 091106 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.3N 57.7W 50.2N 50.3W 56.2N 40.1W 57.5N 30.0W
BAMD 40.4N 52.6W 48.3N 42.0W 53.4N 21.8W 48.4N 4.3W
BAMM 41.6N 53.1W 50.0N 41.1W 54.3N 24.2W 54.6N 10.4W
LBAR 37.9N 55.1W 42.7N 44.2W 44.5N 29.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 43KTS 40KTS 45KTS 24KTS
DSHP 43KTS 40KTS 45KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.7N LONCUR = 55.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 51.4W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 45.6W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 240NM RD34SE = 180NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 300NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#12 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:22 pm

NOAA getting pretty bullish on this becoming sub-tropical storm ida...

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#13 Postby cpdaman » Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:23 pm

quite a windfield with this low pressure area...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas25.png

a bit excited to see what kind of swell will be pushed toward the New England coast line....probably take a drive tues. pm and take a look

and wow wxman57 i didn't realize this thing had been moving at 30 knots! over the last several hours......how far west could it go?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:29 pm

cpdaman wrote:quite a windfield with this low pressure area...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas25.png

a bit excited to see what kind of swell will be pushed toward the New England coast line....probably take a drive tues. pm and take a look

and wow wxman57 i didn't realize this thing had been moving at 30 knots! over the last several hours......how far west could it go?


A high surf advisory is in effect for the north coast of Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin islands and northern Leewards as 10-15 foot swells from the low pressure arrive down here.

Read more about the high swells and see the waves at the web cams on the first post of thread at the Eastern Caribbean thread in the Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&p=1939097#p1939097
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#15 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:45 pm

floater set at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

labelled as invest 13
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#16 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:51 pm

Graphic from wunderground....note the estimated max wind speed

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#17 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:57 pm

Looks good. 8-)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#18 Postby littlevince » Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:59 pm

Image
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Derek Ortt

#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:15 pm

have to be honest, this looks like a storm
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#20 Postby cpdaman » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:15 pm

bueller ......bueller


lookn good bit more tighter look...........special advisory ....or wait till 8 .....or am i missing something
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