ATL : INVEST 96L

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28416
Age: 67
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re:

#21 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:have to be honest, this looks like a storm

It sure does and it looks tropical to me or am I missing something?
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#22 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:37 pm

Ida know, maybe NHC will just let it accelerate out to sea tonight/tomorrow and not name it? ;-)

Last model run had the name Invest 96L. If they were going to name it, the model run would have a different header. And only a medium chance of development next 48 hrs. All point to no name today. Therefore, I expect it to be named STS Ida in a few minutes. I think Bill Read has 9 named storms in the office pool for 2009.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#23 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:44 pm

I'm thinking it may be named at 0300 UTC, or 10 p.m. EST
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#24 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:46 pm

It should be peaking in intensity over the next 12-18 hours. After then, it's accelerating out to sea over cooler water. So if the NHC is going to name it, they better get with it soon.

Oh, and note the cold front extending south from the low to just east of the Caribbean. Unusually strong front for this time of year that far south.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:11 pm

Pass from this morning but you can see a well rounded circulation with pretty strong winds.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#26 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:35 pm

WOW!!! I wasnt even looking at this. That QS caught my eye. Needs a name! Whats the temperature profile on that?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:37 pm

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Cookie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 478
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:13 am
Location: Isle Of lewis scotland

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#28 Postby Cookie » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:04 pm

second system to affect the uk this season?

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:10 pm

01/2345 UTC 33.1N 56.7W ST3.0 96L -- Atlantic

45 knots says Dvorak
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16096
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#30 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:01/2345 UTC 33.1N 56.7W ST3.0 96L -- Atlantic

45 knots says Dvorak


Actually its Herbert-Poteat technique, not Dvorak.
0 likes   

fogbreath
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 11:07 am
Location: Central Ohio via San Fran via Northern FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#31 Postby fogbreath » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:29 pm

Well, I'm glad the prelim tracks are all away from the East Coast - I'm going to be out by NC next weekend and that would not be a fun scenario to deal with
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:54 pm

This Q pass was made at 6:14 PM EST and shows IMO a storm with a very big circulation and strong winds reflected in those purple and black barbs.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4539
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#33 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:56 pm

Doesn't look very sub-tropical yet, other than that it's occasionally getting some thunderstorms over the center. Really lopsided and still attached to that front.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#34 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:28 pm

Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4539
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#35 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.


I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.
0 likes   

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

#36 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:52 pm

I don't know what to say... :?:

Image

when is the next paper from NHC?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:58 pm

ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.


I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.


Then why NHC changed the code from orange to red?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

#38 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:01 pm

[img]http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/4305/5dvryf.gif
[/img]

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27372
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:13 pm

I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4539
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#40 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.


I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.


Then why NHC changed the code from orange to red?


Because it had possibilities (and I thought it did too) but it hasn't capitalized on those possibilities in the last 6 hours and it's just about run out of time, as wxman57 said. It needed to wrap convection all the way around the center and it hasn't done it. And now it's clearly moving north over even cooler water, so there's not enough heat energy from the ocean to produce thunderstorms over the center.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests