ATL : INVEST 96L

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pepeavilenho
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Re:

#41 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:21 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...


the same for me, i remember Henri and Danny this season and they were less than 96-L

we''ll see.

does someone know when is the nest part from NHC? :cold:
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:26 pm

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Re:

#43 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:28 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...


Here they are. They are not really well detached at all. It still looks more like a North Atlantic gale than anything tropical.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:29 pm

We had a system that was well north in latitud than this one with cooler waters and that was tropical storm Grace.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#45 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:We had a system that was well north in latitud than this one and was tropical storm Grace.

Image


Yes but it looked a lot better. When it was named it had become circular (i.e. symmetrical) with thunderstorms all the way around the center and it wasn't attached to any fronts.
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#46 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:33 pm

this is borderline

we can wait until morning after the DMAX to see if convection is able to fire closer to the center
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#47 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:35 pm

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Re:

#48 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:this is borderline

we can wait until morning after the DMAX to see if convection is able to fire closer to the center


Sounds good. I would never count it out after this weird season.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:46 pm

Very tight circulation there.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#50 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Very tight circulation there.

Image


Yeah. If that convection can wrap all the way around and it doesn't move north too fast, it's got a shot.
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Re: Re:

#51 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:51 pm

pepeavilenho wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...


the same for me, i remember Henri and Danny this season and they were less than 96-L
we''ll see.
does someone know when is the nest part from NHC? :cold:


You have to look at the big picture. 96L is an occluded low. Front extends southward to east of the Caribbean:

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Re: Re:

#52 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
pepeavilenho wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...


the same for me, i remember Henri and Danny this season and they were less than 96-L
we''ll see.
does someone know when is the nest part from NHC? :cold:


You have to look at the big picture. 96L is an occluded low. Front extends southward to east of the Caribbean:

Image


yes, you're right, but I think it's not a polar low...
maybe a occuded low yet, it could be...remember Grace.


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#53 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:41 pm

Grace was totally separated from the front
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:20 am

What a difference a day makes.I think its over for this to be at least subtropical today.Yesterday it looked like it was going to separate from the front and it had much more convection mainly lopsided,but as you can see convection is sparse today.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#55 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:32 am

Yep, no Ida. Just a naked swirl now, and still attached to the front.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#56 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:52 am

Downgraded to Code Orange

No surprise here.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LOSING
ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

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#57 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:11 am

:uarrow:
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#58 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:14 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S OF THE LOW ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG
41N51W 32N49W 26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 20N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N55W SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING
STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
FRONTAL PROPERTIES...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY WERE. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW THEN NORTHWARD.


...$$
WALTON
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#59 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:16 am

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#60 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:20 am

No Ida here...
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