WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (25W)

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JTE50
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#21 Postby JTE50 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:59 am

cycloneye wrote:The site works ok for me. http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC


Thanks cycloneye - that site works for me now!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#22 Postby oaba09 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:02 am

cycloneye wrote:The site works ok for me. http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC


This link works for me too...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#23 Postby Aslkahuna » Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:51 pm

JTWC has been announcing for some time that the public access URL would be changing to the US Naval Observatory portal so that's their new URL.

The NE Monsoon does not extend that far east. However, the NE Trades (similar but warmer) do extend that far south in that longitude and it's also possible to get the bottom end of a deep trough when they dig down west of HI.

Steve
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2009 5:50 pm

There is plenty of convection with this system,but it is poorly organized at this time.Lets see what occurs in the next few days as the system moves more west.

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#25 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:02 pm

FROM JTWC: ITS POOR

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.8N 165.0E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK MID-LEVEL TURNING AMIDST AN AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATING A WEAK ELONGATED CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL 25 DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST THAT CAN POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM SHOULD THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO TRACK OR REORGANIZE FURTHER NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. DUE TO THE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#26 Postby oaba09 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:23 pm

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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:14 am

Image

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ricmood

#28 Postby ricmood » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:38 am

Nothing was said about 98W from JMA's latest report
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#29 Postby Infdidoll » Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:25 pm

On radar, looks like the convection is really starting to wrap. Waiting to see what happens...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#30 Postby ozonepete » Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:59 pm

Infdidoll wrote:On radar, looks like the convection is really starting to wrap. Waiting to see what happens...


No dice, so far. This is VERY disorganized, and what looked like some wrapping of convection was just two different clusters of thunderstorms briefly interacting with each other. I don't see any LLC or MLC (Mid Level Center) at all, and neither does JTWC as of 06Z today:

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 165.0E,IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL TURNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATING A WEAK ELONGATED CIRCULATION ALONG THE REMNANT EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR PRESSURE TENDENCY IN KWAJALEIN HAS SEEN A RISE OF 0.5 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL 25 DEGREES TO
THE NORTHWEST THAT CAN POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM SHOULD THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO TRACK OR REORGANIZE FURTHER NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.


This one is in a very hostile environment. I can't see anything coming of this...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#31 Postby Infdidoll » Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:48 pm

Looked like something on radar, last night...now just looks disorganized again. You're right. Bummer for the storm chasers...but good for everyone else! :wink:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#32 Postby oaba09 » Wed Nov 04, 2009 11:54 pm

It's not looking good right now....too disorganized....
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#33 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:05 am

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911050600 14.3 160.5 15
200911050000 7.5 161.8 15
200911041800 7.5 162.3 15
200911040000 10 166 15
200911031800 3.8 163.4 15
200911030000 7.7 172 15

***Significant increase in latitude...It seems like we filipinos don't need to worry about this system........
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#34 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:07 am

Image
Image
Image
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Re:

#35 Postby dhoeze » Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:29 am

oaba09 wrote:Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911050600 14.3 160.5 15
200911050000 7.5 161.8 15
200911041800 7.5 162.3 15
200911040000 10 166 15
200911031800 3.8 163.4 15
200911030000 7.7 172 15

***Significant increase in latitude...It seems like we filipinos don't need to worry about this system........


Yup hopefully... from what we are seeing that massive ridge between this and Phillipines will prevent it from going west towards us. Plus the fact that there is a an ongoing poleward directions of the winds around it.
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Re: Re:

#36 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:41 am

dhoeze wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911050600 14.3 160.5 15
200911050000 7.5 161.8 15
200911041800 7.5 162.3 15
200911040000 10 166 15
200911031800 3.8 163.4 15
200911030000 7.7 172 15

***Significant increase in latitude...It seems like we filipinos don't need to worry about this system........


Yup hopefully... from what we are seeing that massive ridge between this and Phillipines will prevent it from going west towards us. Plus the fact that there is a an ongoing poleward directions of the winds around it.


We're actually lucky coz if this system went under that ridge, it will most likely be a direct hit to us....
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#37 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:07 am

Great loop...
Invest 98W

You can see how the Ridge is affecting the direction and movement of the system
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#38 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:11 am

Seems to be heading NW....If ever this system develops, I think it will affect Japan...Our friends from japan should closely monitor this system :)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#39 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:17 am

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#40 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:21 am

Going to sleep now...Will try to post updates tomorrow from the officed(yay it's friday tomorrow!!!) :D Good night guys!!!
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