WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (25W)

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#61 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:02 pm

07/2030 UTC 21.0N 156.7E T3.0/3.0 25W -- West Pacific

3.0 = 45 knots
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:00 pm

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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:34 pm

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WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 157.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 157.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.6N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.4N 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.1N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.7N 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 34.2N 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:36 pm

JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 21.1N 157.4E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
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#65 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:05 am

204
WWJP25 RJTD 080600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 21.5N 158.5E MINAMITORI SIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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#66 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:06 am

** WTPN31 PGTW 080900 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 158.3E

REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 158.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (TWENTYFIVE). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM THAT HAS ENHANCED THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 080246Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
OF T3.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 25W IS NOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES WHICH ARE INITIALLY PROVIDING
GOOD VENTILATION OVER THE SYSTEM. TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) WITH FULL ET COMPLETED BY TAU 48. THE
LIMITED NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO REFLECT ET VICE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z.//
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#67 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:38 am

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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:02 am

08/0857 UTC 21.6N 158.4E T3.0/3.0 25W -- West Pacific

3.0 = 45 knots
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:11 pm

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WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 159.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 159.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.9N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.1N 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.7N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL STORM 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 160.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
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#70 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:09 pm

Image

WTPQ20 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 21.3N 159.5E POOR
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 23.6N 162.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 25W)

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:22 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 159.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 159.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.6N 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.2N 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.9N 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 159.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//

Image
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#72 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 09, 2009 5:19 am

Amazing that the JTWC kills it just as the JMA thinks it'll become a TS.
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#73 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:15 am

ZCZC 569
WTPQ20 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 20.8N 160.6E POOR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 25.2N 164.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:29 am

Image

Partially exposed but it looks a lot better.
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