ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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cycloneye
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ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:20 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200911031212
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2009, DB, O, 2009110312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972009
AL, 97, 2009110212, , BEST, 0, 96N, 804W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110218, , BEST, 0, 96N, 807W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 810W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110306, , BEST, 0, 97N, 813W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 815W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest


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Thread that discussed about this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106928&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:28 am

524
WHXX01 KWBC 031220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC TUE NOV 3 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091103 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091103 1200 091104 0000 091104 1200 091105 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 82.3W 10.9N 83.2W 11.4N 84.2W
BAMD 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 81.5W 11.3N 81.9W 12.0N 82.6W
BAMM 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 81.8W 11.0N 82.4W 11.7N 83.3W
LBAR 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 82.0W 11.8N 82.9W 13.2N 83.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091105 1200 091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 85.1W 12.5N 86.6W 13.4N 87.9W 14.1N 89.4W
BAMD 13.0N 83.4W 14.9N 84.8W 17.3N 85.4W 19.2N 85.5W
BAMM 12.4N 84.2W 13.5N 86.1W 14.8N 87.5W 15.4N 89.1W
LBAR 14.8N 84.6W 16.9N 85.4W 17.9N 83.8W 17.8N 81.8W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS 37KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 80.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#3 Postby Macrocane » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:02 am

Why are thing so quiet here? With the strong model support people on Central America, Caribbean and Florida should monitor the system carefully. This system may preoduce heavy rains in Central America later this week into the weekend so I'm very interested on it.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#4 Postby CourierPR » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:18 am

This system appears to be organizing. Perhaps this season will end with a surprise.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#5 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:20 am

This system already looks like a TD to me. Do any of you think that this will pose a threat to SFL?
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:23 am

it has lost much of its support from the global models. They are now developing the EPAC system
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#7 Postby boca » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:30 am

97L looks like its less organized (hence2009 season) and the tops are warming.It looks like its slowly spreading westward and eventually into the EPAC.I'm giving up.Bring on winter.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#8 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:31 am

I plotted a map with the 168hr (6pm CST Monday) GFS and ECMWF surface prog on the same map. Isobars are analyzed for every 1/2 millibar. GFS is in purple, EC in yellow. Fairly similar. Has a good chance of moving into Central America, too.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#9 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:33 am

Has a nice spin looking at the first visibles as it remains stationary:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#10 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:42 am

Maybe the models are finally remembering the shear problem.

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Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:54 am

not really any shear over the system at the present time in the very deep SW Carib

However, if the EPAC spins up, its outflow will likely spread strong shear over the Carib low, causing it to weaken.
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#12 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:23 am

Just need to keep an eye on it. But if it were to develop and head north I cannot imagine it gaining much intensity with the shear and likely a run in with the westerlies and lowering SST's, especially if it made it to the GOM. A heavy rain producer would prolly be the biggest threat for anyone!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:57 am

Its the NAM,but I only am posting this 12z run as is superbullish.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:10 am

Recon for Wednesday Afternoon

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
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#15 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:19 am

Yea, I was just reading a FB Hurricane Hunter page that said they have been tasked to fly into the western Carib. tomorrow if this disturbance keeps developing!!
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#16 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:20 am

It does look healthy this morning and convection seems to be increasing around the center.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:36 am

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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:37 am

Image

Latest
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#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:40 am

looks like a migit tropical depression or a storm to me. Very small, but very impressive. Similar to Marco last year
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L=Recon for Wednesday Afternoon at 20:00Z

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:42 am

Below is the long discussion about 97L by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:39 PM GMT on Noviembre 03, 2009

An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L

Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.
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