ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Sanibel]

Impressive swirl. This area has been a hot spot for convection formation all season and itching to put out a system. That's about as far south as you can get a spinning system near 10N in the West Atlantic. This odd kind of location is what you would expect in an odd year like 2009.

[tolakram]

This may require one of those infamous 'eye like feature' comments if it continues to organize.

[ozonepete]

This may require one of those infamous 'eye like feature' comments if it continues to organize.

heh heh. here we go again.

[HURAKAN]

This may require one of those infamous 'eye like feature' comments if it continues to organize.

heh heh. here we go again.

No time to waste.

[wxman57]

Not a lot of surface obs out over the water. The ones I do find are in the 10-15 kt range north of the low center. Probably some 20-25 kt winds in the shower bands. Looks more impressive than most of the named tropical storms of 2009. My current thinking is that a track inland into Central America/Nicaragua may be most likely, where it could dissipate. If it does get drawn northward late this week, then it may encounter increasing wind shear.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 120 hours

Tropical Storm ready to make landfall in Yucatan.Derek,the EPAC low is weak in this run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[img]
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif[/img]

Emerges at Bay of Campeche.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[AtlanticWind]

Does not seem to be making any westward progress, looks to me me like it will stay out over the water next 3 days at least

[HurricaneBelle]

This may require one of those infamous 'eye like feature' comments if it continues to organize.

Like this one? "A RELATIVELY CLEAR AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE".

That was from the initial discussion on what became Gustav, when it had an eye before it was named a TD.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Evil Jeremy]

Should be code red in the TWO in about an hour.

[MGC]

Just back from the Florida Keys. Had a wonderful time. Did any of ya'll see me at Fantasy Fest? I was a vampire...

Looks like a TD to me. Wish Recon was today as 97L looks to be organizing this morning......MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS shows it merging with a cold front while in the WGOM in about 240 hours. Of course, when there is doubt, do the math: GFS + 10 days out = Entertainment.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC at 144 hours.Is with GFS on the placement of the system.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS continues along the line of the 00Z, taking it west and northwest and inland over Central America in a few days then dissipates it over the Yucatan this weekend. Probably a likely scenario. Wind shear should increase significantly north of 20N.

[cycloneye]

First GFDL model plots,forecast to become a hurricane

A slow mover northbound.

WHXX04 KWBC 031723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.1 81.5 285./ 2.9
6 10.4 81.5 348./ 2.4
12 10.3 81.4 131./ 1.0
18 10.4 81.4 59./ .6
24 10.2 81.1 109./ 3.0
30 10.4 81.1 356./ 1.4
36 10.4 81.1 90./ .2
42 10.8 80.9 23./ 4.1
48 11.3 81.0 350./ 5.5
54 12.0 80.4 42./ 9.0
60 12.3 80.9 301./ 5.4
66 12.7 80.9 1./ 4.3
72 12.9 81.1 320./ 3.2
78 13.8 80.8 17./ 8.8
84 14.4 80.7 12./ 6.2
90 15.1 80.5 13./ 7.4
96 16.0 80.8 340./ 8.9
102 16.6 80.8 8./ 6.2
108 17.3 80.8 354./ 7.2
114 18.0 80.9 356./ 7.6
120 19.1 80.7 11./10.3
126 19.6 80.8 353./ 5.7

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

Animation of first GFDL run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[wxman57]

Detailed GFDL model data here:
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... tats.short

[Ad Novoxium]

Is it just me, or is this looking really similar to 1969's Martha?
Image:


Track:

Admittedly, the likely track is not due south, but given where it is and how it looks, it does seem slightly eerie.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

This may require one of those infamous 'eye like feature' comments if it continues to organize.

Like this one? "A RELATIVELY CLEAR AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE".

That was from the initial discussion on what became Gustav, when it had an eye before it was named a TD.

The key word is "RESEMBLES". That wasn't a true eye, but rather an "eye-like feature." Here's the NHC definition of an eye:
Eye:
The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the center of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud.

Since Gustav wasn't severe when a TD, they wouldn't call it an eye.

Here's the rest of it:
" AN SSM/IS IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91 GHZ FREQUENCY... BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE."

[gatorcane]

I had a look at the satellite this morning. Expect code red from NHC in the next advisory folks.

Looks more like September out in the Caribbean then November doesn't it? Ironically when it was September it looked like November......