ATL : INVEST 98L

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TheEuropean
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ATL : INVEST 98L

#1 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:42 am

Here we go:

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Thread that discussed about this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=107023
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Re: ATL : Invest 98L - NE. of Leeward Islands

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:30 am

That was fast the designation of invest.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200911100848
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2009, DB, O, 2009111006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982009
AL, 98, 2009110906, , BEST, 0, 221N, 566W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2009110912, , BEST, 0, 226N, 576W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2009110918, , BEST, 0, 232N, 587W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2009111000, , BEST, 0, 237N, 596W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2009111006, , BEST, 0, 241N, 603W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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#3 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:37 am

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ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:02 am

WHXX01 KWBC 100850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0850 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20091110 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091110 0600 091110 1800 091111 0600 091111 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 60.3W 25.1N 62.3W 26.8N 64.2W 28.7N 65.7W
BAMD 24.1N 60.3W 25.5N 62.3W 26.6N 65.0W 27.8N 66.8W
BAMM 24.1N 60.3W 25.2N 62.4W 26.5N 65.0W 28.0N 67.0W
LBAR 24.1N 60.3W 25.3N 61.8W 26.9N 63.1W 28.8N 63.8W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091112 0600 091113 0600 091114 0600 091115 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 66.5W 34.5N 69.2W 38.4N 75.3W 38.9N 76.6W
BAMD 29.4N 66.9W 34.9N 64.5W 39.6N 63.3W 43.1N 61.7W
BAMM 29.5N 67.9W 34.7N 69.5W 38.3N 74.4W 37.8N 73.9W
LBAR 30.8N 63.3W 33.7N 59.2W 32.6N 52.0W 29.5N 44.5W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 56KTS 37KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 56KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 60.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.2N LONM12 = 58.7W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.1N LONM24 = 56.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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#5 Postby KWT » Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:29 am

Doesn't look like an awful lot is there IMO...
Still what is going on with the tropics, the last 30 days have been closer to what September should have been like!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:48 am

First GFDL run gives the system a name (Joaquin) as a weak Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF the same as GFDL making it a weak storm in fishland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:57 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L

#8 Postby lonelymike » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:06 am

Don't think this system will have 147 pages like Ida. Be lucky to make one page at this point.
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GO SEMINOLES

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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L

#9 Postby tgenius » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:37 am

If this becomes Joaquin I think it would be funny as my son to be born next month will be Joaquin; Can tell him down the line a storm was named after him ;)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#10 Postby tgenius » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:41 am

cycloneye wrote:First GFDL run gives the system a name (Joaquin) as a weak Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF the same as GFDL making it a weak storm in fishland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


My son will be named Joaquin Luis.. so would be kinda funny if it happend :D
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#11 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:12 am

Image
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:14 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 78W PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
E CUBA. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 13N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E
OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N64W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
55W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR
24N66W TO 30N52W. A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N56W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM 16N57W TO 29N49W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 330 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 50W.

AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ALONG 10N/11W TO NEAR 50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:19 am

Image

A lot of work to do
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:06 am

Image

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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L

#15 Postby MGC » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:32 am

Needs to develop some convection near the center...then we can talk business......MGC
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#16 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:40 pm

Rain Rain... from a correspondant of Antigua.
:rarrow: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
- RAIN>>RAIN>>
By jan farara <janfarara at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:09:08 +0000

The cistern is overflowing and we are frantically washing any laundry we can find not to waste the water. The TV has been on and off for the last couple of days and Im now waiting for the power to off as well. The thunder is banging overhead and shaking the house but its usually the lightning strikes that cause the trouble .Im trying to paint but as I don't live in England or north America I haven't enough lights rigged up to work with. Our river is now running alongside the house in a concrete ditch instead of through the front yard and under the house ,thanks to our new next door neighbour who built concrete retaining walls . Dominica has nothing on us! eat your heart out jacolass. If this keeps up I'll be able to wash our cloths in the run off. Only problem; I can't find where the river is going, I hope not under the foundations of the poor beleaguered neighbour below us. Dont know what this weather is but its very WET!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:41 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE WINDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:42 pm

:uarrow:
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:48 pm

Yellow alert is always maintained by Meteo-France Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Stay tuned.
I will keep you informed as usual.
Be safe all the carib islanders. :)
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 2:02 pm

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No significant changes
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