SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:25 am

14/0830 UTC 12.6S 71.1E T2.5/2.5 01S -- Southwest Indian

2.5 = 35 knots
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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04R

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:26 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2009 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 12:53:27 S Lon : 70:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -43.7C Cloud Region Temp : -59.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.75 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#23 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:29 am

Madagascar has upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm so next advisory from Mauritius may name it "Anja" now


Warning Nr / Avis Nr 03/04 14/11/2009 1300 UTC --

System / Système MODERATE TROPICAL STORM / TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE --

Name / Nom -- --
Position / Position NEAR 12° 9 S - 70° 9 E
Estimated minimum central Pressure / Pression minimale estimée au centre 994 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre / Vent moyen maxi (10 mn) près du centre 35 KT (65 KM/H) --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi 50 KT (95 KM/H) --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) / Nombre CI (Classification de Dvorak) CI 2.5+
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#24 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:32 am

cycloneye you talk about confusion

AXIO20 FIMP 141200
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS.
1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER : GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 14.11.09 @ 1200 UTC
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 02
1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2. B LATITUDE : 12.9 DEGREES SOUTH
3. B LONGITUDE : 70.8 DEGREES EAST
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : FAIR.
5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.5 / 2.5 D 0.5/ 12HRS
6. B MOVEMENT : SOUTH SOUTH WEST 08KT
7. B OTHER INFORMATION: SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER,
BEING FOUND IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.
T.O.O. : 14/11/09 @ 1245UTC=
END=

This is stated as cyclone 2 from Mauritius and is Cyclone 4 from Madagascar
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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04R

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:15 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2009 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 12:57:45 S Lon : 70:50:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -41.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OF
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#26 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:24 pm

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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:25 pm

:uarrow: Looks near or at hurricane intensity.

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04R

#28 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 14, 2009 1:33 pm

Upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Anja.

WTIO30 FMEE 141821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/4/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4
2.A POSITION 2009/11/14 AT 1800 UTC :
13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 06 UTC: 13.3S/70.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.5S/70.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.1S/66.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.5S/64.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0.
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING HOT SPOT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
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#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 14, 2009 2:26 pm

Yep, I agree. Looks to be about 55 kt right now. Pressure likely around 995mb.
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2009 2:59 pm

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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#31 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:23 pm

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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:26 pm

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.5S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.9S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE (WESTWARD AND POLEWARD)
VENTING ALOFT. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, EVIDENT IN NUMEROUS IMAGES OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 45 KNOTS
DESPITE A SOMEWHAT WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ANJA IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE CENTER
TO THE EAST. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE DUE TO ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY THEREAFTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS ANJA BEGINS TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:33 pm

14/2030 UTC 12.9S 70.6E T4.0/4.0 ANJA -- Southwest Indian

65kts.
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:08 pm

351
WTIO30 FMEE 150007
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC :
12.9S / 70.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5.
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL
DEFINED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES
CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT
UPPER
LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
AND
SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS
STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ITS
EAST PROGRESSIVLY.=
NNNN
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#35 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:32 pm

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NRL - 90 knots
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:34 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:02:45 S Lon : 70:25:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 972.1mb/ 87.4kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#37 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:53 pm

That raw T number is skyrocketing.
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 10:11 pm

ZCZC 667
WTIO30 FMEE 150038 CCA
??????????????? CORRECTIVE ??????????????
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC :
12.9S / 70.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5.
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL
END OF PART ONE
NNNN
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 10:21 pm

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.1S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.7S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.3S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM WAS LIKELY MUCH STRONGER THAN 45 KNOTS
AT 141800Z BASED ON A SLEW OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT INDICATED
INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
MISREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM. SINCE DEVELOPING A 16 NM EYE AT AROUND 142230Z THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE BECOME MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES. ACCORDINGLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.0
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FROM PGTW. IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY UNDERESTIMATE, THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMMENSELY, WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEEPEN NEAR THE CENTER.
AND LASTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. THE MOST CURRENT
MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS STALL IS A RESULT OF A NARROW
EXTENSION OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM FROM THE EAST, IN ADDITION TO THE COMPETING ASPECTS OF THE
DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. NEAR TAU 72
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE, AND WILL PROMOTE A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AND DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72. THE FORECAST TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THOUGH IT IS MUCH SLOWER IN THE
EARLIER TAUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT SLOW DOWN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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#40 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 10:26 pm

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