SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
wyq614
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 827
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
Contact:

#61 Postby wyq614 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 8:17 am

2009年11月15日 00:00:00 13h47m43.29s -16°28'40.0″ -59°12'43″ 123°06'59″ -6.2
2009年11月15日 12:00:00 14h13m59.02s -18°39'21.5″ +61°49'54

I don´t know how to translate this to English, but it is a point that has something to do with the Moon, the past of the point can contribute to the fast develop of the tropical systems. We can see that the point past near Anja today.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12537
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#62 Postby senorpepr » Sun Nov 15, 2009 8:48 am

12z Update brings Anja to 85 kt 950 hPa.



WTIO30 FMEE 151331
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1200 UTC :
13.3S / 70.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/68.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.8S/65.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.9S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117454
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 15, 2009 9:52 am

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.0S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.0S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.1S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.2S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 01S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A 25 NM ROUND
EYE AND A 150 NM DIAMETER CORE OF INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 50
KNOTS UNDER THESE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK
ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 (KNES) TO 102 KNOTS (PGTW, FMEE). TC
01S HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS STR IS SHIFTING FROM
A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION DUE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH (NOW OVER MADAGASCAR).
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFDN, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS,
WBAR) SUPPORT A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING
AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS EARLY AS TAU 96. THE
UKMO AND THE GFS ARE THE OUTLIERS AND ARE TRACKING TC 01S MORE
WESTWARD TOWARD PORT LOUIS DESPITE INDICATING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION AS THE RE-CURVE MODELS. IN FACT, THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS
STEER THE SYSTEM PERPENDICULAR TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE
THEREFORE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST,
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4214
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#64 Postby Macrocane » Sun Nov 15, 2009 9:55 am

Is Anja an isolated case, or could this be a hint that the 2009-2010 southern hemisphere season will be more active than the 2008-2009? I think it's too early to answer the question but certainly the basins maybe recovering from the below average activity earlier this year, Rick on EPAC, the parade of supertyphoons in WPAC, Ida in the ATL and now Anja in SIO may be signs of that recovering. By the way Anja looks kind of annular don't you think?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#65 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:32 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: Richardson, TX

Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#66 Postby Iune » Sun Nov 15, 2009 11:00 am

From earlier this morning.
Image
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#67 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:37 pm

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117454
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 15, 2009 2:51 pm

Image

ZCZC 369
WTIO30 FMEE 151843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1800 UTC :
13.2S / 69.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.4S/68.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.1S/67.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 22.6S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0, CI=5.5-
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ANJA IS JUST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR
IS
POOR, A GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ARE GOOD AND SHOULD REMAIN DURING 48 HOURS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE OUTFLOW WILL
WEAKEN,
THE WESTERLY JET MOVING EASTWARD. SO THE SYSTEM IS NO MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN POOR DURING 36 TO 48 HOURS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, SLOWLY, DURING FEW HOURS,
A,D
THE, WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST, AND THEN IN
ITS
EAST, IT WILL ACCELERATE AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD.
BEYOND
48 HOURS TAU, IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD WITHIN A
MID-LATITUDES TALW
EG.
WITH ITS TRACK SOUTHWARD, BEYOND 48 HOURS TAU, ENERGETIC POTENTIAL
WILL
BECOME POOR, THE LOW LEVELS INFLOWS WILL BREAK, AND THE VERTICAL
UPPER
LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY JET
ARRIVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#69 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 2:58 pm

Image

Latest
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27991
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#70 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 3:56 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2009 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:16:13 S Lon : 69:24:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -31.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6527
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario Canada

Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#71 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Nov 15, 2009 7:02 pm

Macrocane wrote:By the way Anja looks kind of annular don't you think?

No it doesn't but it did have a perfectly round eye with it being very warm earlier.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#72 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 15, 2009 8:37 pm

They've changed the 18z adv back to 85kt/950hPa, rather than the issued 80/960.

WTIO30 FMEE 160045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 0000 UTC :
13.5S / 69.2E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.2S/68.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.3S/67.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.7S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 19.9S/65.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 21.9S/66.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0, CI=5.5-
CORRECTIVE OF THE 18Z ANALYSIS : CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA AND MAX
AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10MN) : 85KT.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#73 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 8:51 pm

Image

Very impressive
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#74 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:18 pm

Image

Very small storm
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#75 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:48 pm

Image

Extremely compact
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#76 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:53 pm

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.0S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.3S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.9S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.1S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANJA CONTINUES TO BE A VERY INTENSE SYSTEM
DESPITE THE FACT THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT IRREGULAR AND CLOUD-
FILLED. MORE RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
HELD AT 105 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANJA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE AND REORIENT THIS RIDGE
SUCH THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY POLEWARD INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS POSITIONED TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT
TERM DUE TO STRONG RADIAL VENTING ALOFT AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF AUSTRALIA. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
36 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26C AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANJA
WILL CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE. AFTER TAU 72
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS ANJA INTERACTS WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THE TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY GROUPED ABOUT THE CONSENSUS.
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#77 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:21 am

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 NOV 2009 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 13:50:30 S Lon : 68:54:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 951.1mb/115.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.4 5.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -20.2C Cloud Region Temp : -63.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1526
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#78 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:03 am

Image

so small!
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#79 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 16, 2009 3:58 am

Very impressive cyclone.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#80 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:18 am

Image

This system was or is more intense than it's being estimated. Small system are usually more intense than estimated
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests