SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)

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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:20 am

ZCZC 090
WTIO30 FMEE 160629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=5.5-
ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY
DURING LAST NIGHT.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST STALLITE IMAGERY, ANJA BEGINS TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD
.
THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVELS
INFLOWS
AND POOR VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR AND A RATHER GOOD UPPER
LEVELS
DIVERGENCE POLEWARD.
THE EFFICIENCY OF THE POLAR OUTFLOW IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE WESTERLY
JET
MOVING EASTWARD.
THE STEERING FLOW IS THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH
MOVES EASTWARD.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVING
SOUTHWARDS BEFORE EVACUATING IN THE MID LATITUDES AT MEDIUM RANGE.
ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
GOOD
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, SOUTH OF 16S.
UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU
36H.=
NNNN


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#82 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 8:05 am

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Re:

#83 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 16, 2009 8:57 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

This system was or is more intense than it's being estimated. Small system are usually more intense than estimated


I agree. I would put it at at least 100KT. Here's the latest Dvorak from CIMSS:

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  16 NOV 2009    Time :   130000 UTC
      Lat :   15:04:00 S     Lon :   68:26:33 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.5 / 962.8mb/102.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.0     5.4     5.7

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +2.8mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -52.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : INDIAN       
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#84 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:56 am

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.3S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.3S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.7S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.1S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 32.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
160849Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A VERY SMALL, AXISYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
A 15-NM EYE AND UNIFORM RING OF SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION I.E.,
AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE
OUTER BANDING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 102 KNOTS DESPITE SLIGHT COOLING
OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE WITH AUTOMATED DVORAKS AT 105 KNOTS. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ACCELERATION
BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE, DEEP TROUGH AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
DOES REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48.
THIS FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 72/96 DUE TO
EXCESSIVE TRACK SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH WBAR, GFDN AND NOGAPS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS DUE
TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND, IN GENERAL, IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO ITS ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

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#85 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:14 pm

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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 3:46 pm

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Minute storm. The eye looks more like a tornado than an eye!!
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#87 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 16, 2009 6:59 pm

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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:20 pm

ZCZC 561
WTIO30 FMEE 170034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0000 UTC :
16.4S / 67.3E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-.
DESPITE A LESS WELL DEFINED AND LESS WARM EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS,
THE
SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE HAS BECOME COOLER AND DT HAS THEN
INCREASED
.
AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED
IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH
MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HE
AT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW
WEAKENS.
BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS
DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE
MIDLATITUDES.=
NNNN


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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:12 pm

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#90 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:35 pm

Looking at all the data and its look, my guess is that it peaked at 120 kt, with a pressure of 946mb. I would guess 80 kt right now (pressure 978mb).
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#91 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 17, 2009 12:09 am

AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

PREMIER BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 04H30 CE MARDI 17 NOVEMBRE 2009.
CYCLONE TROPICAL 'ANJA' ETAIT CENTRE A 0400 HRS CE MATIN DANS UN
RAYON DE 30 KM EN LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES SUD ET LONGITUDE 67.3
DEGREES EST SOIT ENVIRON 525 KM AU NORD-EST DE RODRIGUES.

'ANJA' SE DEPLACE EN UNE DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST A UNE
VITESSE DE 15 KMPH.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, 'ANJA' S'APPROCHE DE RODRIGUES ET REPRESENTE
UN DANGER POTENTIEL POUR RODRIGUES.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE PRENDRE LES PRECAUTIONS PRELIMINAIRES

LE TEMPS SERA NUAGEUX AVEC AVERSES.

VENTS DU SUD-EST DE 40 KM/H EN MOYENNE AVEC DES RAFALES DE 80 KM/H.

MER FORTE .

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLEE DE NE PAS S'AVENTURER EN MER.

LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA EMIS A 1000HRS.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.=
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#92 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:48 am

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poof
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#93 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 17, 2009 9:02 am

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Going down fast!
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#94 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:05 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 66.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.5S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 28.5S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC ANJA HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND LOST ITS PINHOLE EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AND THE 170931Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY BE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE IN
CONCERT WITH POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (65-90 KNOTS)
AND FMEE (55-77 KNOTS). TC 01S IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, TC ANJA WILL ENCOUNTER MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. FINALLY, AS BUOYS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF APPROXIMATELY 26.0C, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK
OVER MORE UNFAVORABLE WATERS. BY TAU 24, TC 01S WILL START TO
INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AND IT WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 36.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#95 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:19 am

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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#96 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Nov 17, 2009 12:28 pm

Quickly it strengthened, quickly it weakened.
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#97 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 17, 2009 12:30 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Quickly it strengthened, quickly it weakened.


Very typical of small storms
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#98 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 17, 2009 2:58 pm

AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 RESTE EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 RESTE EN VIGUEUR A
RODRIGUES.

QUATRIEME BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 22H15 CE MARDI 17 NOVEMBRE
2009.

LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 'ANJA' ETAIT CENTREE A 2200 HRS DANS UN
RAYON DE 30 KM EN LATITUDE 19.2 DEGREES SUD ET LONGITUDE 65.8
DEGREES EST SOIT ENVIRON 250 KM A L'EST- NORD-EST DE RODRIGUES.

'ANJA' MAINTIENT SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD- SUD-OUEST A UNE
VITESSE ACCELEREE DE 18 KMPH.

VUE SA POSITION ET SA TRAJECTOIRE, 'ANJA' DEMEURE TOUJOURS UN
DANGER POTENTIEL. 'ANJA' PASSERA A L'EST DE RODRIGUES DANS LES
HEURES QUI SUIVENT.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 RESTE EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE MAINTENIR LES PRECAUTIONS PRELIMINAIRES

LE TEMPS SERA NUAGEUX AVEC DES PLUIES PASSAGERES.

LE VENT SOUFFLERA DU SUD-EST DE 40 KM/H EN MOYENNE AVEC DES RAFALES
DE 80 KM/H.

MER FORTE.
LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLEE DE NE PAS S'AVENTURER EN MER.

LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA EMIS DEMAIN A 04H15 HRS.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 RESTE EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASS 1 RESTE EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

Updated: 17 November 2009 at 18:24 UT (LOCAL TIME=UT+4 HOURS)
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#99 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 17, 2009 2:59 pm

Down to a STS.

WTIO30 FMEE 171819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/4/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 65.5E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 140 SE: 210 SO: 050 NO: 050
50 KT NE: 015 SE: 015 SO: 015 NO: 015
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.7S/65.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 25.5S/67.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 28.5S/72.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 32.8S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/11/20 06 UTC: 35.9S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/11/20 18 UTC: 37.7S/89.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 AND CI=4.0
AQUA 0931Z AND F16 1441Z 37GHZ CHANNELS ALLOW LOCATING LLCC ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE THEN ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN DEEP
CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
DUE TO LACK OF CLEAR CENTER ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, THE
LOCATION
OF THE CENTER IN THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1343Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.
ANJA'S WINDS STUCTURE IS VERY ASSYMETRIC AND STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND
MAINLY FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE :
COOLER SST, AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANJA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED SOON TO RECURVE
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNDERGOING A STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND RAPIDLY
WEAKENING.=
NNNN
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#100 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:37 pm

ZCZC 832
WTIO30 FMEE 180012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/4/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/18 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4S / 65.3E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.5 /W 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 140 SE: 210 SO: 050 NO: 050
50 KT NE: 015 SE: 015 SO: 015 NO: 015
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.8S/66.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.8S/69.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 30.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 35.1S/80.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/11/20 12 UTC: 37.2S/85.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.5
NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS TOTALLY DISORGANIZED
THE
RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
DUE TO LACK OF CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MICROWAVE OR INFRARED), THE LOCATION OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER IS
VERY APPROXIMATELY AND WILL PROBABLY BE RELOCATED ON NEXT ADVISORY.
ANJA'S WINDS STUCTURE IS VERY ASSYMETRIC AND STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND
MAINLY FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SYSTEM IS SOON EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEN TO EVACUATE
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE POLAR
TROUGH
TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AND THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN TAU 48 TO 72H.=
NNNN


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