WPAC : INVEST 92W

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cycloneye
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WPAC : INVEST 92W

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2009 12:59 pm

It looks like the WPAC will be active one more time in 2009 causing the stormchasers in that basin to be busy once again.This disturbance it located in the Marshall islands.Some models develop this system.

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Re: WPAC : INVEST 92W

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2009 3:47 pm

Upgraded to Fair


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 174.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF MAJURO. A 180626Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PULSING TROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA.
HOWEVER, A MORE RECENT (181141Z TMI) MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, OUTLINED BY PRONOUNCED CURVATURE OF DEEP
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HAS EVOLVED
FROM THIS WAVE. CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT, AS WELL, DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD VENTING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 92W

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2009 9:38 pm

Looking good.

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#4 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:04 am

Oohh...another one....Back to storm tracking then :)....
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#5 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:08 am

92w looks good....

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Looks like a STR will block any northwards movement...nowhere else to go but wnw...
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:42 am

Image

Very small
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 92W

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:44 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 174.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF
KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 190242Z AMSU IMAGE SUPPORTED A
WEAK LLCC WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT ALSO INDICATES A VERY
SMALL, WEAK VORTICITY SIGNATURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAJURO
AND KWAJALEIN INDICATE 10-KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. OVERALL,
THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N 170E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
DEVELOPING LLCC EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:23 am

Image

Latest
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 92W

#9 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:05 am

Has a very long way to go.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 92W

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:16 pm

Naked swirl here.

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ricmood

#11 Postby ricmood » Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:15 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
171.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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