WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

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cebuboy
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#21 Postby cebuboy » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:40 am

Pretty weird path, I heard news of this storm yesterday. We are prepared to embrace this one. I think this will not be strong, but might carry some rains.

As of now, it is raining in Cebu and I heard some thunderstorms.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:33 pm

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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:01 pm

From surface data, the center seems to be near 10.0N 126.6E. Pressure appears to be 1002mb, and the winds 30 kt.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:05 pm


Image

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.0N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 9.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 8.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 9.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 9.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 10.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 125.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. A 231745Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATED A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC USING LOWER
RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS (PGTW) BASED ON
THE WEAK BANDING. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WITHIN
600NM OF TS 26W AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH TS 26W, WHICH WILL DRIVE A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED TRACK TOWARD TS
26W. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT TRACKS
BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48 AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TS
STRENGTH UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:12 pm

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has accelerated and is heading towards Visayas.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 70 kms East Northeast of Surigao City

Coordinates: 10.2°N, 126.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center

Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
is expected to make landfall over Leyte
Tuesday evening:
40 kms East Southeast of Roxas City
Wednesday evening:
120 kms West Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
Thursday evening:
450 kms Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
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#26 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:08 pm

Image

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" is now moving closer to Leyte.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) in the vicinity of Dinagat or at
50 kms East Northeast of Maasin, Southern Leyte

Coordinates: 10.4°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center

Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
is expected make landfall over Leyte
Wednesday morning:
30 kms West Northwest of Roxas City
Thursday morning:
180 kms West Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
Friday morning:
530 kms West Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
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#27 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:18 pm

Image

According to the JTWC prognostic reasoning, it seems like they're expecting a loop to the east and a possible interaction w/ Nida...
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#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:28 pm

Looking at surface data on the WunderMap, still appears to only be a depression. Pressure estimate is 1004mb. Looking at outlying stations, the ambient pressure is quite high and more typical of the Atlantic.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:32 pm

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:47 pm


Image

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.5N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 9.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 8.7N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 8.6N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 9.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 10.0N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.1N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 127.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#31 Postby dhoeze » Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:24 pm

so far still no recurving or change in directions caused by Nida.
Still heading West North West
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#32 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:31 pm

dhoeze wrote:so far still no recurving or change in directions caused by Nida.
Still heading West North West


That's expected, the recurving is supposed to happen in the next 12 to 24 hours...When it starts losing latitude(moving SW) it means that it's starting to recurve....It's gonna be quasi stationary w/ a very slow movement just like parma.....

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#33 Postby oaba09 » Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:33 am

It seems to be losing convection based on the satellite loops......
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Re:

#34 Postby dhoeze » Tue Nov 24, 2009 4:02 am

oaba09 wrote:It seems to be losing convection based on the satellite loops......


yes your right.
Looks like this is a goner already.
Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 24, 2009 5:51 am

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 9.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 8.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 126.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED 120 NM TO THE WEST. IN THE PAST SIX HOURS THE
LLCC HAS STARTED TO INCREASE SPEED TOWARDS MINDANAO AND IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. MSI ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED, THUS THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONGER
SYSTEM THAT WRAPS SOUTHWARD AND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND TRACK, THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
LESS LIKELY AS TD 27W APPROACHES MINDANAO. LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE LLCC TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W
(NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 24, 2009 8:24 am

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#37 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:21 pm

241500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 125.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35
NM NORTH OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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