WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[Chacor]

Looks like a fishie right now headed west of the CNMI. For some reason the JTWC site's gone back to showing an empty TCFA, with broken links.

[cycloneye]

Jim,if the JTWC track is right,you will see the stronger side of the cyclone.

[cycloneye]

First Warning by JTWC


PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 6.4N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 6.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 7.3N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 7.7N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.5N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 6.5N 148.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK ISLAND HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 211051Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 211100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W HAS GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 2112OOZ QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 25-KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS SOUTHEAST OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 26W IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH IN A VERY WEAK STEERING PATTERN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TD 26W.
B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE GRADIENT LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, AS THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND GAINS VERTICAL HEIGHT, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST. AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SOLIDIFIES, TD 26W WILL
INCREASE ITS FORWARD MOTION AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND FURTHER
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, FURTHER AIDING
INTENSIFICATION, EASILY EXCEEDING TYPHOON STRENGTH. THERE IS VERY
MINIMAL NUMERIC GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AND THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

JMA:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 06.8N 147.8E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[JTE50]

Thanks Guys. I'm going to run down to the harbor and check out the surf. If TD26 tracks to our west there should be some big waves here on Thanksgiving Day.

[cycloneye]

NWS Guam first advisory on TD 26W

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 220259
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 PM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W FORMS IN CHUUK STATE...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT
130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
555 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 6.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

[StormingB81]

Looks liek if it stays on this path it will go between Okinawa and Iwo To...

[HURAKAN]

large storm

[Macrocane]

The banding and the outflow look great but it lacks a well defined inner core, It certainly has the potential to become a rather strong typhoon but we still have to wait, the JTWC forecast seems reasonable for me and I agree with them.

[JTE50]

The banding and the outflow look great but it lacks a well defined inner core, It certainly has the potential to become a rather strong typhoon but we still have to wait, the JTWC forecast seems reasonable for me and I agree with them.

well defined inner core? it's only a TD

[Grifforzer]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 07.1N 147.9E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 07.7N 148.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

---
First tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency

[JTE50]

CPA looks a little stronger and closer to Guam vs. JTWC #1

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 7.5N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 8.0N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 8.6N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 9.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.0N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.0N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.1N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 148.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTY-SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
410 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WRAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS IMPROVED.
ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
A 220544Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS UP TO 30 KNOTS. TD 26W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOING SO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER
TAU 48, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED (THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST) AS THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES
AND BUILDS VERTICALLY. ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z,
222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Jim,this is what you are looking for in the next 3 days in terms of the waves.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

.OVERVIEW...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 26W ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
ACROSS CHUUK STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

$$
PMZ172-230700-
CHUUK-
500 PM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH AND WEST SHORES...

SURF HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL STEADILY RISE OVER NIGHT...AND REACH
HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 8 TO 10 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. SURF HEIGHTS WILL
THEN RISE FURTHER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT ON MONDAY EVENING...AND
PEAK AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY...
INCREASING WIND WAVES AND SWELLS COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL INUNDATION
OF AROUND 1 FOOT BY MONDAY EVENING.

AVOID VENTURING NEAR EXPOSED REEFS AND BEACHES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING EXPOSURES AS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

$$

CHAN

[Crostorm]

[StormingB81]

Hopefully this will miss all land...guess we have to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

JMA 12:50 UTC warning

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/



TD
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 22 November 2009
<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°10'(8.2°)
E148°10'(148.2°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Macrocane]

well defined inner core? it's only a TD

But it could have a central dense overcast and it does not.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 1500Z Warning



WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 7.4N 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 7.9N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.4N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 9.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.7N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.9N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.4N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.1N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 147.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND
231500Z.//
NNNN