WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

NWS GUAM Public Advisory #3

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

WTPQ31 PGUM 221543
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 AM CHST MON NOV 23 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W NEARLY STATIONARY...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES WEST OF CHUUK
85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
55 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
465 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
685 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

JMA 18:45 UTC Warning



TD
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 22 November 2009
<Analyses at 22/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°25'(7.4°)
E147°55'(147.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°55'(8.9°)
E147°05'(147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Crostorm]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Its taking its time in both ways,in the crawling movement and in the organization of the structure.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 2100Z Warning



WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 7.5N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 7.9N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 8.5N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 147.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED
AND SUBSIDED, THE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 221539Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING
A HOOK FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS MIGRATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ALLOWING TD
26W TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS MARGINAL GAIN WAS OFFSET BY THE REDUCED
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE STEERING MECHANISM IS PROVIDED
BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW - WILL ENHANCE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AS A STRONG TYPHOON BY TAU 120.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Jim,the Guam NWS is still uncertain about the effects of 26W there.

NWS GUAM Discussion

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/public.php

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
609 AM CHST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TD 26W STILL ABOUT 460 SSE OF GUAM...AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HR. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A TON OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE TRACK/INTENSITY
OF TD 26W. ITS CLOUD SIGNATURE HAS GREATLY DECLINED SINCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE EMPHASIS SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING EAST
TOWARD CHUUK...THOUGH PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING THERE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TD 26W TRACKING SAFELY SOUTH OF GUAM ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
SHOWERS FOR THE MARIANAS. BUT THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON
26W...WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF KEEPING 26W WELL SOUTH...THE NOGAPS
TRACKING IT FURTHER NORTH...AND THE GFS TAKING IT PRACTICALLY OVER
GUAM. SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE CURRENT SET OF GRIDS...WHICH WOULD
STILL VERIFY WELL IF TD 26W FOLLOWS THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST.
OF COURSE...IF 26W DECIDES TO TAKE THE GFS ROUTE...MAJOR CHANGES
WOULD HAVE TO BE MADE TO THE MARIANAS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF BELOW SCA LIMITS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 9
FT IN GUAM/ROTA WATERS. BUT SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO BE 10 FT IN
TINIAN/SAIPAN WATERS...SO HAVE A SCA FOR HAZ SEAS UP THERE THE
NEXT 2 DAYS. STILL HOLDING SURF JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS...BUT
NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN 26W AND A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE
MARSHALLS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
KOSRAE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RIDGING WILL EASE WEST OVER POHNPEI ON
TUESDAY IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. THE TRADE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
MOVING WEST LATER ON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENT WINDS FEEDING INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AND WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AS 26W PULLS NORTH AND WEST...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
WESTWARD OVER CHUUK BY MIDWEEK USHERING IN MORE FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WEATHER OVER YAP/KOROR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PLEASANT
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE FORMATION OF A
MONSOON TAIL ASSOCIATED WITH 26W THOUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO BOTH LOCATIONS LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 26W HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE SWELL AND WIND WAVES THAT HAVE ARRIVED IN CHUUK STATE. LATEST
WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST EXPOSURES OF CHUUK
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE

[Crostorm]

[dowdavek]

I wonder what effect this flare up of convection on the eastern side will have on the forecast track? We're definitely watching this carefully on Guam. We've already had some increased showers, clouds, and wind this morning.

[cycloneye]

JMA 00:55 UTC Warning

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TD
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 23 November 2009
<Analyses at 23/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°30'(7.5°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°35'(8.6°)
E146°05'(146.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

NRL 00:00 UTC position is 8.1N-148.9W.The JTWC warning with the text and graphic will come out shortly but by only looking at that position,I think the track will be a little bit to the right of the last one,in other words a little closer to Guam.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00Z Warning

As I said in my previous post,the track is more closer to Guam.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC



PN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 8.1N 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.7N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 9.1N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.8N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.3N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.9N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 148.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

[dhoeze]

I wonder what effect this flare up of convection on the eastern side will have on the forecast track? We're definitely watching this carefully on Guam. We've already had some increased showers, clouds, and wind this morning.

You guys take care there.
Some forecast saying it will go up to Cat 2.

Hey guys,

Looking at different models, I guest it is still to early to forecast its track

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 301
WTPQ20 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 07.2N 147.6E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 08.7N 146.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

[dhoeze]

I wonder what effect this flare up of convection on the eastern side will have on the forecast track? We're definitely watching this carefully on Guam. We've already had some increased showers, clouds, and wind this morning.

You guys take care there.
Some forecast saying it will go up to Cat 2.

Hey guys,

Looking at different models, I guest it is still to early to forecast its track

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

23/0232 UTC 8.0N 148.2E T2.0/2.0 26W -- West Pacific

2.0 = 30 knots

[cycloneye]

JTWC 0900Z Warning

Upgrade to Tropical Storm.



WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 8.4N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 8.9N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.6N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.9N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.4N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 147.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM STARTING TO DEVELOP A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WHILE
A 230730Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE WRAPPING.
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
RADIAL OUTFLOW AS 26W HAS DEVELOPED AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT.
ACCORDINGLY THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, RECENT AGENCY FIXES AND MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD.
TS 26W IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU
120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RECURVATURE SCENARIO WHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS OFFER A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAT WILL STAY EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND
240900Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

What a difference a new day makes as yesterday it looked like a mess but today is a bonifide Tropical Cyclone.