WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

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#61 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:17 am

Image

Great convection....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM 26W (JTWC) TD (JMA)

#62 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:22 am

the STR is too much in front of 26W so i can say that it won't go directly westward towards the Philippines. however, i learned a lesson from the past typhoons. never be too confident ;)
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ricmood

#63 Postby ricmood » Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:04 am

based on ecmwf forecast, 26W will be near south luzon philippines by Dec3-4
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#64 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:22 am

ECMWF's forecast for december 3....You're right ricmood...it seems like they're forecasting it to possibly hit southern or central luzon....

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Image
Last edited by oaba09 on Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ricmood

#65 Postby ricmood » Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:26 am

Let's hope it's just a weak storm by then
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#66 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:15 am

Upgraded to the 22nd TS of the season.

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0922 NIDA (0922) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 08.8N 147.0E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 09.5N 144.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 11.2N 141.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 261200UTC 13.4N 139.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#67 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:43 am

Image
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#68 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:47 am

Crostorm wrote:Image


Pretty big system.....
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#69 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:50 am

1500Z JTWC advisory

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 9.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.8N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.8N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.0N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.1N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.2N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 146.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:07 am

Image

Looking good
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:20 am

Prognostic Reasoning of JTWC Warning #7

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA) HAS TRACKED INCREASINGLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT AGENCY FIXES AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT NIDA IS NO LONGER IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS INSTEAD TRACKING FIRMLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A
231200Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM GUAM OBSERVED 20- TO 25-KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB. AT THE SAME TIME,
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, IN CONCERT WITH A 231118Z AMSU IMAGE,
CAPTURES THE SYSTEM'S WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BANDS AND BUILDING
VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 231130Z
PGTW FIX AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM RJTD AND PGTW OF 30 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING STEADILY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY
RECEDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, NIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW A BIT IN FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE CAUSED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES,
IT WILL ENHANCE NIDA'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON ONE OF TWO SCENARIOS. GFDN, FOR ONE, OFFERS THAT NIDA MAY
CONTINUE TO RECURVE AS THE TROUGH CREATES A BREAK IN THE STEERING
RIDGE. ECMWF AND NOGAPS, HOWEVER, SUGGEST A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE
PATTERN THAT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STAIR-STEP AND TRACK
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND RESUMES ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK.//
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#72 Postby Macrocane » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:25 am

Nida is a big system and looks to be strengthening, is still too early to know with certainty if it will affect the Philippines but bears watching, remember that some of the strongest typhoons this season formed in a very similar location to Nida's, I'm not saying that it will be a supertyphoon but it could be stronger than forecasted.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#73 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:25 am

Image
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#74 Postby JTE50 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:01 pm

had a big blowup of cold cloud tops earlier. Looks like it's finally getting organized.
Color IR loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#75 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:37 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#76 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:47 pm

JMA 18:45 UTC Warning

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Image

TS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 23 November 2009
<Analyses at 23/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°00'(9.0°)
E146°20'(146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N220km(120NM)
S130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E143°00'(143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°55'(11.9°)
E140°55'(140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#77 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:28 pm

JTWC 18:00Z Warning=50kts

The storm2k members who live in Okinawa should watch the progress of this system down the road.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 8.7N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.5N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.5N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.7N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.9N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.5N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.8N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 145.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS
26W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 23/1621Z
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
ON THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW NEAR 25N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO STAIR-STEP AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE
TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ECMWF FIELDS WERE ALSO USED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY
RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#78 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:14 pm

Wow...they're expecting for this to reach 105 knots....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#79 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:Prognostic Reasoning of JTWC Warning #7

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA) HAS TRACKED INCREASINGLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT AGENCY FIXES AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT NIDA IS NO LONGER IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS INSTEAD TRACKING FIRMLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A
231200Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM GUAM OBSERVED 20- TO 25-KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB. AT THE SAME TIME,
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, IN CONCERT WITH A 231118Z AMSU IMAGE,
CAPTURES THE SYSTEM'S WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BANDS AND BUILDING
VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 231130Z
PGTW FIX AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM RJTD AND PGTW OF 30 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING STEADILY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY
RECEDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, NIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW A BIT IN FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE CAUSED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES,
IT WILL ENHANCE NIDA'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON ONE OF TWO SCENARIOS. GFDN, FOR ONE, OFFERS THAT NIDA MAY
CONTINUE TO RECURVE AS THE TROUGH CREATES A BREAK IN THE STEERING
RIDGE. ECMWF AND NOGAPS, HOWEVER, SUGGEST A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE
PATTERN THAT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STAIR-STEP AND TRACK
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND RESUMES ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK.//


The prognostic reasoning reminds me of Typhoon Lupit...
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StormingB81
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#80 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:46 pm

Guess we all have to watch one more time. Guess this season wants to go out with a bang
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