WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

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#81 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:47 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Guess we all have to watch one more time. Guess this season wants to go out with a bang


Yup...I think a lot of the models has it going polewards w/ the exception of the european model...If that's the case then Japan may be in trouble...
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#82 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:54 pm

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The STR seems to be blocking any significant polewards movement right now...The question now is whether the trough will be deep enough to make it recurve....
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#83 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:57 pm

Well Okinawa hasnt been hit by a typhoon in 2 1/2 years
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#84 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:04 pm

WTPQ31 PGUM 232126
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
260 MILES WEST OF ULUL
130 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL
95 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
430 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN
535 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. NIDA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

---
warning may be issued soon since track brings this system closer to the Marianas region
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:04 pm

SSD Dvorak T Numbers

Almost a typhoon.Is a matter of time it will be.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

23/2032 UTC 8.7N 145.9E T3.5/3.5 NIDA -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#86 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:21 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#87 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:24 pm

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#88 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:26 pm

JTWC prognostic reasoning for 27W has it possibly interacting w/ Nida....This would be interesting to watch in the next couple of days...
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#89 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:42 pm

Seems to be moving generally westwards or WNW at this moment...The STR still seems to be affecting it...

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#90 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:52 pm

If it continues the west to westnorthwest track,it may get very close to the island of Yap.By the way,anyone knows how many people live there?

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#91 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:If it continues the west to westnorthwest track,it may get very close to Yap.By the way,anyone knows how many people live there?


Yap State consists of four volcanic islands plus 19 inhabited outer islands and atolls, with a total land area of 46 square miles. Two-thirds of its estimated 11,241 (est. 2000) population live on Yap Island.

Current Weather Conditions:
Yap Island, Yap Int. Airp
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PTYA.html
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#92 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:43 pm

Crostorm wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If it continues the west to westnorthwest track,it may get very close to Yap.By the way,anyone knows how many people live there?


Yap State consists of four volcanic islands plus 19 inhabited outer islands and atolls, with a total land area of 46 square miles. Two-thirds of its estimated 11,241 (est. 2000) population live on Yap Island.

Current Weather Conditions:
Yap Island, Yap Int. Airp
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PTYA.html


Thank you for posting the information about Yap.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#93 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:50 pm

JMA 00:45 UTC Warning

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 24 November 2009
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°00'(9.0°)
E145°50'(145.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N260km(140NM)
S170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E138°40'(138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

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#94 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:02 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#95 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:JMA 00:45 UTC Warning

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 24 November 2009
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°00'(9.0°)
E145°50'(145.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N260km(140NM)
S170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E138°40'(138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

Image


Based on the JMA advisory, it seems like they're expecting it to move northwestwards in the next couple of hours....Somehow, I don't see that happening because of the STR

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#96 Postby dhoeze » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:05 pm

With the forecasted strength of Nida and the distance between the 2 Storms (Urduja 27W), are we looking at another Fujiwara effect causing a harder forecast of its tracks?
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#97 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:16 pm

dhoeze wrote:With the forecasted strength of Nida and the distance between the 2 Storms (Urduja 27W), are we looking at another Fujiwara effect causing a harder forecast of its tracks?


JTWC prognostic reasoning has it interacting w/ 27W....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#98 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:19 pm

The 5 day track of JMA has been updated and has a hook to the left at day 5.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#99 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 5 day track of JMA has been updated and has a hook to the left at day 5.


This is just one of "those" that's very hard to predict.......Kinda reminds me of Lupit and Parma....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#100 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:45 pm

JTWC 00:00 UTC Warning=55kts

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 8.6N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.6N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.7N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.7N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 145.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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