SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-BONGANI)

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Grifforzer
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#21 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:54 pm

The following is re-written by me but based on the RSMC data
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani (998 hPa) located at 9.3S 53.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
Near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the northern quadrant and up to 60 NM from the center within the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.1S 52.0E - 40 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 10.3S 51.1E - 45 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 10.4S 49.1E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 11.6S 46.2E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
The system remains of small size, and seems under going a temporary southeasterly constraint, (Last SSMSI 1413z shows the center south east of the edge of the convection), but last satellite infrared imagery shows building convection near the center.

BONGANI is currently located on the northwestern edge of a mid level ridge and a weakness within this ridge can be seen along 50E. For the next 12 hours, this weakness should allow a slower southwestward track as the STR rebuilt tuesday night, system should accelerate a little bit west southwestward

All environmental factors continue to look favorable for intensification according to CIMSS data (MIMIC-TPW), the dry air present to the southwest of the system should remain te limiting factor for intensification during the next hours. Up to 36-48 hours, intensification is expectedto go on, with a building poleward outflow.. due to an approaching subtropical jet in the south.

All interest in the Fahquar Archipelago, northern tip of Madagascar, Comoros Archipelago, and Mayotte Island should still closely monitor the progress of this system
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:31 pm

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Not looking good
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:39 am

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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:40 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.8S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.5S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A 240235Z WSAT
CORIOLIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE
SOUTH-OF-TRACK. DESPITE THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE SIGNATURE
EVIDENCED IN THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW UNDERESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF WEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING EAST TO WEST. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BEND INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE AND RE-
ORIENT THE STEERING RIDGE. IN ADDITION, THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
INCREASED POLEWARD VENTING BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ELEVATES
BEYOND TAU 72. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
FLATTEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND OVER INTERIOR MOZAMBIQUE,
AND WILL DISSIPATE. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:43 am

ZCZC 995
WTIO30 FMEE 240634 CCA
??????????????? CORRECTIVE ??????????????
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-BONGANI)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/24 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.2E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 020 SO: 020 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.7S/50.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.9S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.3S/47.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.9S/46.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/11/27 06 UTC: 12.9S/44.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+, CI=2.0+.
THE SYSTEM HAS DISRUPT WITHIN THE LAST NIGHT, ACTUALLY DRY AIR HAS
ENTER
IN THE CIRCULATION IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST SECTOR, AS THE MICRO WAVE
END OF PART ONE
NNNN


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#26 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:25 pm

** WTIO22 FMEE 241822 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2009
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-BONGANI) 1005 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 51.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25KT, LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND
ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/25 AT 06 UTC:
10.9S / 49.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2009/11/25 AT 18 UTC:
11.0S / 48.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN ITS WESTWARDS TURN WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS
.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR AN
IMPORTANT REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:57 pm

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Latest. Convection has increased
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:27 am

ZCZC 370
WTIO30 FMEE 250639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/5/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-BONGANI)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/25 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7S / 50.0E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 11.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.5S/46.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 12.4S/44.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/11/27 06 UTC: 13.7S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/11/27 18 UTC: 15.0S/41.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/11/28 06 UTC: 16.5S/40.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+, CI=1.5+
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM AMSU 0109Z. CONVECTION HAS
FLARED
UP ON IR IMAGERY DURING LAST NIGHT, BUT COLLAPSES OVER THE LAST
HOURS.
MW SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
AVAILABLE NWP SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST:
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM LESS FAVOURABLE FOR A
REINTENSIFICATION.
ACTUALLY, IF UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD, LOWER LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH A POOR MONSOON INFLOW THAT SHOULD NOW
DISAPPEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS A
ND A TRADEWIND INFLOW THAT SHOULD BE DISRUPTED BY THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR. FOR NOW, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE DEEPEN SIGNIFICATIVELY THE
SYSTEM.
LATEST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT: THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE
AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS TOWARDS THE
COMOROS
ARCHIPELAGO, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. TOTAL 24H RAIN AMOUNTS OF 50 MM ARE
POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER ELEVATED AREAS (ACCORDING TO EUMETSAT AND
NOAA
RAIN ESTIMATION PRODUCTS).
THIS IS A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE COMOROS
ARCHIPELAGO THURSDAY EVENING. A DETERIORATION FROM EAST TO WEST OF
THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA.=
NNNN


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