SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

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SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#1 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:04 pm

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Dec 042000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING bbNIL

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Dec 051800 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 09S 174E AT
041800UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.

----
Tropical Disturbance Summary from 0900 UTC...

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 04/0848 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 09S 178E AT 040600
UTC SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR WITH
ANIMATION. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED NEAR THE SYSTEM IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
ORGANISED WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL DEFINED FROM LOW-MID LEVEL
[850-500HPA]. TD01F IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. SYSTEM
LIES IN AREA OF LOW SHEAR AND IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYTEM SOUTHWEST WITHOUT
DEEPENING IT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance 01F (98P)

#2 Postby Iune » Sun Dec 06, 2009 4:12 pm

Now A Tropical Depression:
FQPS01 NFFN 061800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Dec 062000 UTC.
PART 1 : WARNING NIL
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Dec 071800 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11S 167E AT
061800UTC. POSITION FAIR. SLOW MOVING.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 09S 178E AT
061800UTC. POSITION POOR. SLOW MOVING.
CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 EQ 171E 03S 175E 08S 178E SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 MILES
OF CZ1. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES ON EITHER SIDE
OF CZ1.
CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 13S 162E 15S 168E 13S 176E 10S 180 07S 175W 02S
164W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CZ2. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS
WITHIN 100 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF CZ2.
WEAK TROUGH T1 04S 160E 05S 165E 10S 170E SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 MILES OF T1.
WEAK TROUGH T2 08S 156W 15S 150W 20S 145W 23S 140W 25S 130W SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SOME SHOWERS 80 MILES OF T2.
STATIONERY FRONT SF 19S 160E 20S 165E 22S 175E 25S 174W MOVING EAST
AT 10 KNOTS. POOR VISIBILITY IN SOME SHOWERS 80 MILES OF SF.
OVER BROAD AREA BETWEEN 20S AND 25S AND WEST OF 165W EXPECT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY SWELL.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance 01F (98P)

#3 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 06, 2009 5:54 pm

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:54 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/0015 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.5S 171.5E AT
112100 UTC. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS ANIMATION IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.

ORAGNISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFCANTLY WITH INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN
THE LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST UNDER A APPROACHING 250 HPA
TROUGH IN A MODERATLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE SOUTH. A SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH DIRECTS A SOUTHEAST SURGE AND A MOONSON NORTHWEST SURGE
TO THE NORTH. TD01F IS STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST
INTO AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE .
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:55 pm

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WTPS22 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 173.4E TO 14.5S 179.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 174.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
169.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REGION OF TROUGHING. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CON-
VECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH BANDING STARTING TO DEVELOP.
A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE LLCC HAD 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE LLCC
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS AT MODERATE LEVELS BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE VWS WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE SST, MODERATE VWS VALUES AND AN ORGANIZING LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//
NNNN
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Re: Tropical Disturbance 01F (98P)

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:55 pm

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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F (90P)

#7 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 4:45 am

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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F (90P)

#8 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 4:51 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/0932 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 174.6E AT
120600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

ORAGNISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INCREASE IN CONVECTION
IN THE LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A 250 HPA TROUGH IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE SOUTH. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
DIRECTS A SOUTHEAST SURGE AND A MOONSON NORTHWEST SURGE TO THE NORTH.
TD01F IS STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEAST
INTO AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F (90P)

#9 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 12, 2009 10:25 am

Gale Warning 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/1311 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 176.4E AT 121200 UTC.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INCREASING UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES BETWEEN
60 MILES TO 120 MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN SECTOR, NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 002.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F (90P)

#10 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:11 am

WTPS31 PGTW 121500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/120122Z DEC 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 175.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 175.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.1S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.7S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.4S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.1S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.8S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 175.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A 12/1224Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 12/0939Z ASCAT
IMAGE ALSO SHOWED A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED 30-35 KNOT SYSTEM AND
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION ALONG WITH RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS AND THE ASCAT WINDS. TC 04P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ORIENTED
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 WHICH WILL SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER SST. TC 04P SHOULD BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE UKMO, NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN,
WBAR AND ECMWF ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 120122Z
DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 120130 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F (90P)

#11 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:16 am

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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F (90P)

#12 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:05 pm

Gale Warning 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/1928 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.3S 175.5E AT 121800 UTC.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 MILES TO 150 MILES AWAY FROM
THE CENTRE IN SECTOR, NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:18 pm

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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:43 pm

12/1430 UTC 13.1S 174.9E T2.5/2.5 04P -- Southwest Pacific

35 knots
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F (04P)

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:48 pm

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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 6:09 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/2240 UTC 2009 UTC.

CORRECTION TO DVORAK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [997HPA] CENTRE NEAR 13.3S 175.5E AT 121800
UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.

ORAGNISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM NORTH. WARMING OF CENTRAL OVERCAST EVIDENT. PRIMARY
BAND TO EAST CONTINUALLY PEELING OFF. DEPRESSION MOVING INTO
DECREASING SHEAR. TD01F IS STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT2.5. THUS
T2.5/2.5/1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM ALONG A SOUTHEAST TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130230 UTC.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:40 pm

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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:49 pm

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WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 175.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 175.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.8S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.4S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.9S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.8S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.7S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 175.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO
WRAP INTO A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LLCC. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT
NADI, FIJI ARE ONLY SHOWING 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH
PRESSURES AROUND 1005 MB. THIS SUGGESTS THE SIZE OF TC 04P REMAINS
FAIRLY COMPACT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK
AND INDICATE THAT BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CAUSE TC
04P TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE FORECAST EXPECTS
ET TO BE COMPLETE AROUND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:58 pm

GALE WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 13/0101 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone MICK 01F centre [995hPa] category 1 was located near
13 decimal 9 South 175 decimal 4 East at 130000 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 13.9S 175.4E at 130000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at 10 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in
sectors from north through east to southwest and within 100 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 15.2S 176.5E at 131200 UTC
and near 16.2S 177.6E at 140000 UTC

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj

This warning cancels and replaces warning 004.
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HURAKAN
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:27 pm


12/2030 UTC 13.8S 175.2E T3.0/3.0 04P -- Southwest Pacific


45 knots
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