SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

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#41 Postby caribepr » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:58 pm

Thanks. Just got an update from him as well, says the barameter is plunging and it's blowing like stink...hang on!
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#42 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:01 pm

Snapshot Suva

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#43 Postby caribepr » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:03 pm

The webcam is working great....can't imagine how it is on the Nadi side!
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#44 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:05 pm

WWFJ40 NFFN 132100 CCA

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
MICK
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:13am on Monday the 14th of December 2009

CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE AND INTENSITY...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND
MAMANUCA, VITI LEVU, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [980HPA] CENTRE CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 9 EAST OR ABOUT 110 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI OR 210 KM NORTHWEST OF SUVA AT 11 AM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
INTENSIFYING. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO150 KM/HR AND
WINDS OF 65 KM/HR TO 80 KM/HR AND MONEMTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR WITHIN
270 KM OF CENTRE. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT 15 KM/HR.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 40
KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI OR ABOUT 70 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
SUVA AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ABOUT 185 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
NADI OR ABOUT 75 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT MIDDAY TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CENTRE PASSES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA, VITI LEVU, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 TO 100 KM/HR
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KM.HR.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 80 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR.

FURTHER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ROTUMA: FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SOME RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERTORMS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. VERY HIGH SEAS.
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY
HIGH SEAS.
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.
VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.30
PM TODAY.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#45 Postby islanda » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:22 pm

getting intermittent power outages now. looking out my window i can see my neighbour's tv aerial out on the lawn, cable on roof dangling in the wind.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#46 Postby islanda » Sun Dec 13, 2009 8:38 pm

power just went out in my area. probably one of last few areas that still had power(underground cabling). using battery power now from my netbook and 3G network seems to be still working. eye wall came over north western coast around midday.
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#47 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:14 pm

Nadi, FJ (Airport)

Wind: 56 km/h / 15.4 m/s from the SSE
Pressure: 979 hPa (Falling)

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/91680.html
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#48 Postby caribepr » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:38 pm

Sorry, I had to go out for awhile...how are things now? If you have any battery power left???
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#49 Postby islanda » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:57 pm

wind speed has definitely picked up and very gusty. seems as if system has picked up speed and is now moving through faster than what was initially forecast.(probably a good thing as winds won't be strong for too long). Our met office went offline for a while but is back online. really pouring now!
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:03 pm

Image

Overland
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:07 pm

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 177.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 177.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.8S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.9S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.9S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.0S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 178.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. AN EYE IS READILY APPARENT WITH DVORAKS FROM PGTW AT
4.0 INDICATING 65 KNOTS AS WELL. OBSERVATIONS AT NADI, CURRENTLY
INDICATE 44 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 980 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE
PRESENT INTENSITY OF TC 04P AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH FIJI. THE TRACK
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND HAS SEEN AN ACCELERATION AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 04P IS ENHANCING THE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE FORECAST KEEP INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE OF THE LLCC AS IT CROSSES
FIJI IS EXPECTED, WITH A BRIEF REORGANIZATION UPON CROSSING. HOWEVER,
THE TRACK SPEED WILL QUICKLY TAKE TC 04P INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BEYOND TAU 12 INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 48, BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN
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#52 Postby caribepr » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:18 pm

Thank you. Haven't heard anything from him for awhile but I know his laptop is dependent on power, battery is messed up, so if they have no power, he has no comms.
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:18 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 14/0235 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [975HPA] CAT 2 CENTRE NEAR 17.3S 177.3E AT
140000 UTC MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST AT 010KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED
ON RADAR, MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORAGNISATION IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS WITH BANDING EYE FORMING. PRIMARY
BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY. CYCLONE LIES JUST EAST OF AN UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. OUTLFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH, EAST AND NORTH AND
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BETWEEN 20 TO 25KT. SST
AROUND 28C. SYSTEM MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST. CYCLONE
STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON >1.75
DEG EMBD DIST YIELDING A DT4.0. PT AND MET=4. FT BASED ON MET, THUS
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SHORT TERM
INTENSIFICATION AND A FORECAST SOUTHEAST TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 18.5S 178.3E MOV SE 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 19.6S 179.4E MOV SE
08KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 20.9S 179.5W MOV SE 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 22.1S 178.0W MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MICK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140830 UTC.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#54 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:21 pm

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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#55 Postby islanda » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:31 pm

am surprised how the eye is already over land and here in suva there is no sustained gale force winds yet only gusts. this really is a compact system. Usually by now we'd be getting sustained gales.
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#56 Postby caribepr » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:33 pm

I think I feel relief now...60 is high but not bad. Man, this is what watching us must be like for friends in the states and elsewhere in the world! I don't think I've ever appreciated quite so much how very strange and far away that feels. Glad once again for S2K...thanks and thanks.

edited to add: I'm going to go out and watch the meteor showers now, supposed to be a great show and the skies HERE are clear and bright. Will check in with Fiji after the show.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#57 Postby islanda » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:33 pm

You're right at least its not a cat 4 or 5 which would have been really bad. oh and lol....now you know how it feels when we're monitoring a system in the gulf or the atlantic...halfway across the world...lol. We just love our when mother nature decides to flex her muscles.
On a side note...power just came on again....and wind outisde about 25-30 knots gusting to probably 45-50 knots. Had to go on the roof to tie down dish...rusted bolts. was swinging in the wind.
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:45 pm

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Latest
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#59 Postby caribepr » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:30 am

Glad your power is back! Helps make things seem better. I'm looking forward to hearing from my friend how things went for him. I was just outside watching the meteor shower, thinking, here I am...clear skies, beautiful night/morning and you all are in a cyclone! And we're communicating. What a crazy world.
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

#60 Postby islanda » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:53 am

wind has died down. now only light rain. probably in the eye. back end dosen't look too impressive on sat pics. reports from other parts of the country where its gone through say not much rain and wind on back end of the storm. its lost most of its characteristics once it made landfall and went over the mountain range in the center of the island.
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