SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO) (03S)

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SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO) (03S)

#1 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:07 pm

FQIO26 FIMP 041200
1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, FRIDAY 04 DECEMBER 2009 AT 1245 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE.

STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY
WINDS TOGETHER WITH ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST WITHIN
AREA BOUNDED BY LATITUDES 11S AND18S AND LONGITUDES 82E AND 95E.


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 HPA NEAR 09S 89.5E.

MOVEMENT WEST SOUTH WEST 07KT.


-----

AXIO20 FIMP 041800
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS.
1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER : GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 04.12.09 @ 1800 UTC
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 03
1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2. B LATITUDE : 9.7 SOUTH
3. B LONGITUDE : 88.0 EAST
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : POOR
5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.0/2.0 D0.5/ 06HRS
6. B MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTH WEST 08KT.
7. B OTHER INFORMATION: -
T.O.O. : 04/12/09 @ 1800 UTC=
END=
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:23 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Friday the 4th of December 2009
Valid until midnight WST Monday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Saturday :Very Low
Sunday :Very Low
Monday :Very Low

NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90 -125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/
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Re: Tropical Disturbance 90S

#3 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 05, 2009 7:46 pm

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:59 pm

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:01 pm

ZCZC 185
WTIO30 FMEE 060031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2009/12/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 84.8E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/06 12 UTC: 08.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/12/07 00 UTC: 08.5S/80.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/12/07 12 UTC: 08.8S/79.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/12/08 00 UTC: 09.3S/77.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/08 12 UTC: 09.9S/75.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/12/09 00 UTC: 10.7S/73.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
RECENT INFRA RED SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS CONVECTION BLOWING UP
CLOSE TO
THE LLCC AND SIGNS OF CURVATURE.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY GOOD, WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME GOOD
BEFORE
24 TO 36 TAU. THE VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND A
GOOD
OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTHWARD. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS GOOD (28,5OC).
THE SYSTEME IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK REGULARLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE.=
NNNN
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 7:47 am

ZCZC 039
WTIO20 FMEE 060626
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/12/2009
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/12/2009 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1002 HPA
POSITION: 8.6S / 84.5E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/12/06 AT 18 UTC:
8.4S / 82.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2009/12/07 AT 06 UTC:
8.5S / 81.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT VERY FAVOURABLE; THIS
SYTEM SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY INTENSIFY.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS
, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.=
NNNN


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#7 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 06, 2009 8:35 am

WTXS21 PGTW 061130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 84.6E TO 9.4S 78.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
84.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S
86.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 85.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY (MI) (060126Z
SSMIS 91H, 060738Z TMI 85H) INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
TOWARDS THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A 060413Z ASCAT PASS VALIDATES
THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN MI WITH 30 KNOTS
UNFLAGGED AT THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE
ALSO ASSESS A 30-KNOT SYSTEM. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY
LIMITED AND WEAK, BUT IT HAS ALSO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071130Z.//
NNNN
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:02 pm

ZCZC 652
WTIO30 FMEE 061205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2009/12/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 83.4E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/07 00 UTC: 08.7S/81.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/12/07 12 UTC: 08.9S/79.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/12/08 00 UTC: 09.4S/77.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/08 12 UTC: 10.2S/75.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/12/09 00 UTC: 10.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2009/12/09 12 UTC: 10.7S/72.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
THE SYSTEM SHOWS THE SAME ASPECT THAN AT 06 IN VIS/IR ANIMATED
IMAGERIES;
A BROAD BUT BROKEN CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION, WHICH APPEARS CUT FROM
THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ASCAT PASS 06/0413Z SHOW WINDS AT 20/25 KNOTS, AND AN ASYMMETRICAL
LLCC
DUE TO THE POOR MONSOON INFLOW AND TO THE RATHER QUICK MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY FAVOURABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION
AS THE EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK AND NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE RANGES 24 TO 36. THE WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND A GOOD
OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTHWARD. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS GOOD (28,5OC).
THE SYSTEME IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK REGULARLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE RATHER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT HOWEVER, DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.=
NNNN


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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:04 pm

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:11 pm

06/1430 UTC 8.5S 83.4E T2.0/2.0 90S -- Southwest Indian

Floater available - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (90S)

#11 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 06, 2009 5:56 pm

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (90S)

#12 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 06, 2009 5:59 pm

ZCZC 579
WTIO30 FMEE 061809
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2009/12/06 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6S / 83.0E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/07 06 UTC: 08.9S/80.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/12/07 18 UTC: 09.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/12/08 06 UTC: 09.7S/75.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/08 18 UTC: 09.6S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/12/09 06 UTC: 09.6S/71.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2009/12/09 18 UTC: 09.6S/71.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
AS FORECASTED, SYSTEM HAS TROUBLE TO INTENSIFY MAINLY DUE TO THE POOR
MONSOON INFLOW.
THE EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
RANGES 24 TO 36.
THE WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND A GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTHWARD. OCEAN
HEAT
CONTENT IS GOOD (28,5OC).
THE SYSTEME IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK REGULARLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE RATHER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT HOWEVER, DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.=
NNNN
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 7:57 pm

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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 9:52 pm

ZCZC 261
WTIO30 FMEE 070014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2009/12/07 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7S / 82.1E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/07 12 UTC: 09.1S/80.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/12/08 00 UTC: 09.7S/78.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/08 12 UTC: 10.2S/76.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/09 00 UTC: 10.4S/74.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/12/09 12 UTC: 10.3S/71.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/10 00 UTC: 10.3S/70.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
AS FORECASTED, SYSTEM HAS TROUBLE TO INTENSIFY MAINLY DUE TO THE POOR
MONSOON INFLOW, THE DEEP CONVCETIVE ACTIVITY KEEPS ON BEING CYCLIC IN
THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC.
THE EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS
THE WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND A GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTHWARD. OCEAN
HEAT
CONTENT IS GOOD (28,5OC).
THE SYSTEME IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK REGULARLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE RATHER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT HOWEVER, DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.=
NNNN


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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 9:58 pm

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NRL: TC 03S - 35 knots
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 10:41 pm

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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061121Z DEC 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 8.5S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 8.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.2S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.5S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 10.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 10.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 10.9S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 81.4E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 061121Z
DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061130 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (03S)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:03 am

451
WTIO30 FMEE 070636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2009/12/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 80.5E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/07 18 UTC: 09.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/08 06 UTC: 10.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/08 18 UTC: 10.5S/74.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/09 06 UTC: 10.6S/72.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/09 18 UTC: 10.5S/70.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/10 06 UTC: 10.5S/68.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
SATELLITE DATA OVRE THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS
INTENSIFYING
. T NUMBER AT 2.5 IS CONFIRMED OVER MORNING'S IMAGERY AND BY
ESTIMATIONS
FROM OTHER AGENCIES (SAB, PGTW)
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. WV IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPROVING
EQUATORWARDS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IT REMAINS GOOD OVER THE
SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, SPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT
IS GOOD OVE
R THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UNFAVORABLE ELEMENT REMAINS THE
EQUATORWARDS
LOW LEVEL INFLOW BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEME IS EXPECTED
TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY, LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS REGULARLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL
MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARDS BEND WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS DUE TO
A
TEMPORARY WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (03S)

#18 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:03 am

ZCZC 451
WTIO30 FMEE 070636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2009/12/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 80.5E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/07 18 UTC: 09.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/08 06 UTC: 10.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/08 18 UTC: 10.5S/74.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/09 06 UTC: 10.6S/72.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/09 18 UTC: 10.5S/70.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/10 06 UTC: 10.5S/68.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
SATELLITE DATA OVRE THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS
INTENSIFYING
. T NUMBER AT 2.5 IS CONFIRMED OVER MORNING'S IMAGERY AND BY
ESTIMATIONS
FROM OTHER AGENCIES (SAB, PGTW)
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. WV IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPROVING
EQUATORWARDS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IT REMAINS GOOD OVER THE
SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, SPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT
IS GOOD OVE
R THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UNFAVORABLE ELEMENT REMAINS THE
EQUATORWARDS
LOW LEVEL INFLOW BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEME IS EXPECTED
TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY, LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS REGULARLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL
MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARDS BEND WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS DUE TO
A
TEMPORARY WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.=
NNNN

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (03S)

#19 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:25 am

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (03S)

#20 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:30 am

ZCZC 107
WTIO20 FMEE 071224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/12/2009
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 7/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/12/2009 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2S / 79.6E
(NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST
) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND VERY LOCALLY UP TO 400 NM
IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS
FROM
THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
9.8S / 77.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
10.3S / 75.4E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED 'CLEO' BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL WEATHER
SERVICE. SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSIFICATION RATE FOR
THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.=
NNNN

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