SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO) (03S)

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:28 am

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Track
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:30 am

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Looking good
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:32 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 9.1S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.2S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.4S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 10.6S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.4S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. CLEO HAS STRENGTHENED 10 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING HAVE ALL FACILITATED THIS INTENSIFICATION.
AS OF 071200Z, PGTW AND FMEE ARE REPORTING A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 3.0, WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO 45 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE, AND INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN TO STEADY
AROUND 70 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:37 am

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Activity ramping up quickly. Three named storms in less than a month.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:13 am

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Getting close to hurricane intensity
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#26 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:19 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 DEC 2009 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 9:19:54 S Lon : 78:42:18 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 988.5mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.5mb

Center Temp : -71.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#27 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:25 pm

Up to 45kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 071823


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/6/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)

2.A POSITION 2009/12/07 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 78.4E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/08 06 UTC: 10.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/12/08 18 UTC: 10.8S/74.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/12/09 06 UTC: 11.2S/73.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/12/09 18 UTC: 11.4S/71.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/12/10 06 UTC: 11.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/12/10 18 UTC: 11.6S/69.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-

THE LAST MW IMAGERY F16 07 1353Z SHOWS AN IMPROVING ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
AS AN EYE STARTS TO FORM. IR IMAGERIES SHOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN LEADING
TO A DT ABOUT 3.5.

ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, SYSTEM IS NOW IN PHASIS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. WV ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD OVER THE SYSTEM. IT REMAINS THE BEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, SPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
ACCORDING TO O
CEAN HEAT CONTAIN (OHC) DATA FROM RAMMB/NOAA/CIRA, SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF HIGH OHC. UNDERGOING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, SYSTEM SHOULD NOW INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 36/48 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THIS HIGH
OHC AREA, THE INTENS
IFICATION RATE HAS BEEN LOWERED BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE ...

THE SYSTEM NOW TRACKS MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE A
THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AVAILABLE NWP REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOWS ARE
WEAKER AND STORM MOT
ION SHOULD DECREASE.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:31 pm

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Latest
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:33 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 DEC 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 9:30:50 S Lon : 78:09:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 985.3mb/ 59.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.5mb

Center Temp : -72.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:38 pm

NRL - 55 knots

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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:02 pm

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Pin-hole eye developing
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#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:14 pm

Rapid deepening in store?

It seems that storms in this basin form at really low latitudes...
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:17 pm

ZCZC 624
WTIO30 FMEE 080025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/6/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/08 AT 0000 UTC :
10.3S / 77.4E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 090 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 090
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/08 12 UTC: 11.1S/75.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/12/09 00 UTC: 11.7S/73.4E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/12/09 12 UTC: 12.0S/71.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/12/10 00 UTC: 12.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/12/10 12 UTC: 12.5S/69.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/12/11 00 UTC: 12.6S/67.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
THE LAST MW IMAGERY AQUA 07/1957Z CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A VERY SMALL
EYE. LAST 6-HOUR IR ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, SYSTEM IS NOW IN PHASIS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. WV ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD OVER THE SYSTEM. IT REMAINS THE BEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, SPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
ACCORDING TO O
CEAN HEAT CONTAIN (OHC) DATA FROM RAMMB/NOAA/CIRA, SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF HIGH OHC. UNDERGOING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, SYSTEM SHOULD NOW INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 36/48 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THIS HIGH
OHC AREA, THE INTENS
IFICATION RATE HAS BEEN LOWERED BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE ...
THE SYSTEM NOW TRACKS MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE A
THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AVAILABLE NWP REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOWS ARE
WEAKER AND STORM MOT
ION SHOULD DECREASE.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
NNNN


Image
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:21 pm

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Looks to be at hurricane intensity with a well-developed eye
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Re:

#35 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Rapid deepening in store?

It seems that storms in this basin form at really low latitudes...


With that pin-hole eye, It's likely.
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#36 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:17 pm

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:23 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 11.1S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.7S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.1S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.1S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.5S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TC 03S. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM TC 03S HAS FUELED THE 10 KNOT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. FIXES FROM PGTW AND
KNES WERE AT 3.5 WITH FMEE AT A 4.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS FAVORS PGTW AND KNES. A RECENT 080004Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS AN EYE HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE BANDING LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND IS LIKELY DUE TO THE QUICKER
BREAKDOWN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 03S. TRACK SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF TC 03S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN


Image
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HURAKAN
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:33 pm

Image

55 knots looks too low
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:06 pm

Image

Image

Well-defined eye
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margiek
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Re:

#40 Postby margiek » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:17 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

55 knots looks too low


It is.

(both Reunion and JTWC gave 55 kt; one is 1-min avg and the other 10-min avg)
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