SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO) (03S)

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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:38 pm

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Pretty impressive
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#42 Postby Macrocane » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:57 pm

Does La Reunion issue special advisories? I think they should do it in cases like this, JTWC should do it too but I know they only issue two warnings per day on southern hemisphere TC.
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#43 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:40 pm

08/0230 UTC 10.5S 77.0E T4.5/4.5 CLEO -- Southwest Indian
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#44 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:53 pm

Crostorm wrote:08/0230 UTC 10.5S 77.0E T4.5/4.5 CLEO -- Southwest Indian


That's more like it!
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#45 Postby Crostorm » Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:01 am

Image
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Intense Tropical Cyclone Cleo (06R/03S)

#46 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:26 am

WTIO31 FMEE 080623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20092010
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/12/2009 :
10.7S / 76.4E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5 /D 3.0/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 947 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 90 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.5S 74.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 12.0S 72.8E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 12.9S 69.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 13.0S 67.1E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Cyclone Cleo intensification rate is breaking Dvorak constraints. According to CIMSS data, system is in phasis with an upper level ridge and the wind shear is weak. Wator vapor imagery shows that upper level divergence remains fairly good over the system. It remains the best over the southern semi-circle, specially over the southwestern quadrant. According to ocean heat content data from RANMB/NOAA/CIRA system is currently located near an area of high ocean heat content. Undergoing good environmental conditions, this small system should reach rapidly its maximum intensity. At 12-24 hours, as the system moves away from this high ocean heat content area, the intensification should stop. Upper level conditions remains favorable within the next 3 days, and the intensity is expected to remain steady. The system tracks west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the slightly weakening subtropical ridge located in the southeast. Available Numerical Weather Prediction remains in good agreement with maintaining this general motion for the next 48 hours, thereafter, mid level steering flows are weaker and storm motion should decrease. This forecast is based on a consensus of the available models.
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:54 am

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NRL - 95 knots
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:59 am

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Small storm

Image

Track
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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#49 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:38 am

Up to 105kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 081221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/08 AT 1200 UTC :
11.1S / 75.7E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 3.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 160
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/09 00 UTC: 11.9S/74.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/12/09 12 UTC: 12.6S/72.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/12/10 00 UTC: 13.2S/70.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/12/10 12 UTC: 13.9S/69.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/12/11 00 UTC: 14.4S/67.9E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/12/11 12 UTC: 14.8S/66.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0+
CLEO MAY HAVE REACH ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY.
WITHIN THE LAST THREE HOURS THE INFRA RED CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALLER AND LESS WELL DEFINED EYE.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, SYSTEM IS IN PHASIS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. WV ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS VERY GOOD OVER THE SYSTEM.
OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS HIGH.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND CLEO INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE NWP REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:11 am

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Very compact storm
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:14 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.5S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.1S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.0S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 75.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINPOINT EYE AND
EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG FEEDER BANDS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS REFLECTS THIS INCREASING TREND AND IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON EYE FIXES.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC CLEO
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTERACT
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT QUICKLY EASTWARD WHILE THE
WESTERN STR BUILDS EASTWARD, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TC-LAPS WHICH RECURVES
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC CLEO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
36 DUE TO MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND
090900Z.//
NNNN
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:12 am

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It can't get any smaller!! LOL
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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#53 Postby Macrocane » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:30 am

The three named cyclones that have developed in SIO this season have been very small systems.
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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#54 Postby HurricaneRobert » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:18 am

They usually are pretty small here.
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:13 pm

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The eye is gone
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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:32 pm

ZCZC 364
WTIO30 FMEE 081838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/6/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/08 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3S / 75.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 165
50 KT NE: 075 SE: 075 SO: 075 NO: 075
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/09 06 UTC: 12.0S/73.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/12/09 18 UTC: 12.6S/71.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/12/10 06 UTC: 13.1S/69.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/12/10 18 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/11 06 UTC: 14.0S/67.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/11 18 UTC: 14.4S/65.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 CI=6.0
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT CLEO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND. AT 14:30Z,
CLOUD
PATTERN HAS SHIFTED FROM 'EYE' TO 'EMBEDDED CENTER'. HOWEVER, OVER
THE
VERY LAST PICTURES, AN 'EYE PATTERN' SEEMS TO APPEAR AGAIN. MEAN DT
OVER
3 HOURS (SMALL SYSTEM) GIVES 5.0.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, EASTNORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR HAS STRENGHEN A
BIT
SINCE 09Z AS IT IS HIGHER THAN 10 KT SINCE 12Z. THIS CONSTRAINT CAN
ALSO
BE SEEN OVER WV IMAGERY.
ANALYSE OF LATEST AVAILABLE NWP PRODUCTS SHOW THAT THIS UNFAVORABLE
ELEMENT COULD STRENGHEN THURSDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN
PUSH UP A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE NWP REMAIN IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS BUT SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST
AND THE MIDDLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IT IS A BIT NORTHWARDS THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.=
NNNN

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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:26 pm

Very hard to tell what it peaked at without Recon out there. My guess for 1-min winds is 120 kt, but that is just a guess.
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#58 Postby Cookie » Tue Dec 08, 2009 4:29 pm

another stunning system,

very small and powerful
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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#59 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 08, 2009 4:47 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.4S 74.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 74.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.5S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.4S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.1S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.8S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 74.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 03S HAS LOST ITS VISIBLE EYE, BUT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A DEEP
BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF AND WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ADDITIONAL VENTING TO THE EAST. A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 03S IS SHOWING INDICATIONS OF
ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A DEVELOPING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 03S, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
THE TROUGH, WILL BEGIN TO HAMPER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND IN CON-
JUNCTION WITH DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, WILL CAUSE A
WEAKENING OF TC 03S BEYOND TAU 36. THE STR WILL ALSO BECOME THE MAJOR
STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. ADDITIONAL TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGHS WILL CAUSE A DEFORMATION OF THE STR AROUND TAU 96
AND WILL CAUSE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, BUT REFLECTS A
WIDE SPREAD IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
PREDOMINANTLY ON THE CONCENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#60 Postby Crostorm » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:26 pm

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