SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO) (03S)

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#61 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:02 pm

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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#62 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:54 pm

ZCZC 126
WTIO30 FMEE 090042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/09 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 74.1E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 075 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 075
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/09 12 UTC: 12.3S/72.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/12/10 00 UTC: 13.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/12/10 12 UTC: 13.8S/68.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/12/11 00 UTC: 14.3S/67.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/11 12 UTC: 14.6S/65.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2009/12/12 00 UTC: 15.0S/64.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- CI=5.5
CLEO HAS FINALLY MAINTAIN AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
MEAN DT OVER 3 HOURS (SMALL SYSTEM) GIVES A LITTLE LESS THAN 5.0.
CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON AQUA OF 20:41Z. MW IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
INTERNAL
STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM HAS STRONGLY DETERIORATED WITHIN THE LAST 12
HOURS.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, EASTNORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS NOW AT 15 KT.
ANALYSE OF LATEST AVAILABLE NWP PRODUCTS (12Z RUN) SHOW THAT THIS
UNFAVORABLE ELEMENT COULD STRENGHEN THIS EVENING. MOREOVER, SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT WATER. CONSEQUENTLY,
A
WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO
ITS
SMALL SIZE, THE WEAKEN
ING TREND COULD BE FASTER THAN ESTIMATED IN THIS FORECAST.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE NWP REMAIN IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER.
UKMET HAS THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK WITH A QUASI-WESTWARDS, ON THE
OTHER
HAND SOME GUIDANCE
, AS NGP, A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE
AND IS A BIT SOUTHWARDS THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.=
NNNN

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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:57 pm

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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:52 pm

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL CYCLONE CLEO (03S)

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:08 am

ZCZC 537
WTIO30 FMEE 091216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 72.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 090
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/10 00 UTC: 13.1S/71.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/12/10 12 UTC: 14.0S/69.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/11 00 UTC: 14.5S/67.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/11 12 UTC: 14.9S/66.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/12/12 00 UTC: 15.3S/64.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/12/12 12 UTC: 15.6S/63.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+
CLEO IS MAINTAINING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN SINCE LAST NIGHT, WITH
A
DECREASING CDO, DESPITE OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SSMIS OF
02:30Z
. MW IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THAT INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM HAS
STRONGLY
DETERIORATED, AND THE VAPOR DATA SHOW DRY AIR IN THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEME
WHICH IN
VASION SHOULD PRECIPITATE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTANT OR INTENSIFYING
AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MOREOVER
, SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LESS OCEANIC CONTENT WATER.
CONSEQUENTLY, A WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO ITS SMALL S
IZE, THE WEAKENING TREND COULD BE FASTER THAN ESTIMATED IN THIS
FORECAST.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE NWP REMAIN IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER.
UKMET HAS THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK WITH A QUASI-WESTWARDS, ON THE
OTHER
HAND SOME GUIDANCE
, AS NGP, A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE,
SLOWNING DOWN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DECREASE
DUE TO AN APPROCHING TROUGH.=
NNNN

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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:39 am

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#67 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 09, 2009 1:54 pm

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#68 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 09, 2009 2:28 pm

ZCZC 571
WTIO30 FMEE 091833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/6/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/09 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 71.4E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 180 SO: 220 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/10 06 UTC: 12.8S/69.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/12/10 18 UTC: 13.3S/68.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/11 06 UTC: 13.5S/66.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/11 18 UTC: 13.8S/64.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/12 06 UTC: 14.0S/63.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/12/12 18 UTC: 14.3S/62.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.0
CLEO IS MAINTAINING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN SINCE LAST NIGHT.
A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION EXISTS SINCE 12Z AT, THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORM
MAY DECREASE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO STAY MODERATE AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE,
SLOWNING DOWN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DECREASE
DUE TO AN APPROCHING TROUGH.=
NNNN

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:32 pm

ZCZC 325
WTIO30 FMEE 100038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/6/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 71.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 180 SO: 220 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/10 12 UTC: 13.3S/69.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/11 00 UTC: 13.7S/67.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/11 12 UTC: 13.7S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/12 00 UTC: 13.8S/64.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/12/12 12 UTC: 14.1S/63.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/12/13 00 UTC: 14.4S/62.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
LAST ANIMATED INFRA RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLEO IS UNDER
THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR. CIMSS ANALYSIS AT 21Z
CONFIRMS THAT WINDSHEAR IS AT LEAST 15KT.
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO STAY MODERATE WITHIN THE NEXT
24
HOURS AND TO INCREASE A BIT BEYOND.
ACCORDING TO ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, CLEO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER
CONSTANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
THEN
TO BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD AS SLOWING DOWN WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH IN ITS WEST.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#70 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:12 am

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#71 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:49 am

ZCZC 220
WTIO30 FMEE 100628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/6/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 70.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/10 18 UTC: 14.6S/69.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/11 06 UTC: 15.5S/68.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/11 18 UTC: 16.3S/67.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/12 06 UTC: 17.1S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/12 18 UTC: 17.7S/65.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/12/13 06 UTC: 18.3S/64.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5
CLEO UNDERGOES A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH DISCONNECTS UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW LEVEL ONE - REFER TO SSMIS F16
10/0218Z
CHANNEL 85COLOR.
SYSTEM HAS RECURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON
TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN LIGHTLY RECURVE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS.
ON THIS TRACK, IT SHOULD SHIFT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ON A MARGINAL
WARM
WATER ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD IN CONSEQUENCE NOT TAKING BENEFIT OF THE
WEAKENING WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT FORECASTED ON AND AFTER SATURDAY 12.
IT SHOULD APPROACH RODRIGUES AT THE END OF THIS FORECASTED AT
TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAGE OR MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK REMAINS STRONG IN RELATIONSHIP WITH
THE
SPREAD OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.=
NNNN


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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#72 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:57 am

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#73 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:59 am

ZCZC 911
WTIO30 FMEE 101225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/6/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 69.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/11 00 UTC: 14.5S/68.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/11 12 UTC: 15.0S/67.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/12 00 UTC: 15.4S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/12 12 UTC: 15.9S/64.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/12/13 00 UTC: 16.4S/63.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/13 12 UTC: 17.2S/62.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5
CLEO UNDERGOES A NORT-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH
DISCONNECTS
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW LEVEL ONE (REFER TO SSMIS F16
10/0218Z AND TRMM 10/0530Z CHANNEL 85)
THE VORTEX IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS
BLOWN OUT SOUTHWARDS.
AS IT WEAKS, SYSTEM SHOULD REDRESS ITS TRACK WEST-SOUTWESTWARDS
WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, MORE NORTHERN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED ONE (REFER
TO
WTIO30 FMEE 100628), CLEO SHOULD STAY OVER A MARGINAL WARM BUT ENOUGH
ENERGETIC OCEAN AND TAKING BENEFIT OF THE WEAKENING WINDSHEAR
CONSTRAINT
FORECASTED ON SATURDAY 12 TO TEMPORARELY RE-INTENSIFY.
ON AND AFTER SUNDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS
A
POLAR TROUGH.
THE UNCERTAINTY (AND ALSO INTENSITY) ABOUT THE TRACK REMAINS STRONG
IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SPREAD OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#74 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:01 am

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#75 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:24 pm

ZCZC 838
WTIO30 FMEE 101834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/6/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 68.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/11 06 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/11 18 UTC: 15.6S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/12/12 06 UTC: 15.8S/64.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/12 18 UTC: 16.0S/63.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/13 06 UTC: 16.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/12/13 18 UTC: 17.1S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.0+
CLEO ALWAYS UNDERGOES A NORT-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR(REFER
TO
SSMIS 10/1454Z)
THE VORTEX IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS
BLOWN OUT SOUTHWARDS.
AS IT WEAKS, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT
48 TO
60 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, CLEO SHOULD STAY OVER A MARGINAL WARM BUT ENOUGH
ENERGETIC
OCEAN AND TAKING BENEFIT OF THE WEAKENING WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT
FORECASTED ON SATURDAY 12 TO MAKE A BREAK IN ITS WEAKENING.
ON AND AFTER SUNDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS
A
POLAR TROUGH.=
NNNN

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#76 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:45 pm

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It's going down!
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#77 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 7:16 pm

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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#78 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:51 am

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.5S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED, AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY
DEPLETED. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTER DUE
TO THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR. PGTW
AND KNES INTENSITY FIXES CONCUR THAT THE SYSTEM IS 35 KNOTS OR LESS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN)
. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN

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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#79 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:21 am

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#80 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 4:25 pm

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Looking a lot better
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