SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO) (03S)

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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#81 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 6:44 pm

TXXS24 KNES 122051


A. 03S (CLEO)

B. 12/2030Z

C. 15.0S

D. 63.0E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER LAST 6 HOURS AND IS
NOW CHARACTERIZED BY BANDING MEASURING 7/10 FOR A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0
WHILE PT IS 2.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.


I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#82 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:28 pm

12/2030 UTC 15.0S 63.0E T1.5/1.5 CLEO -- Southwest Indian

25 knots
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Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CLEO (03S)

#83 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:26 pm

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 011
WTXS31 PGTW 130300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.1S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.9S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTH-
EAST NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. JTWC HAS COMMENCED WARNINGS FOR TC 03S
BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW SHOWING AT LEAST 30 TO
35 KNOTS AT 122330Z, WITH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS
BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH ONLY
BRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTION, HOWEVER RECENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 03S HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS INCREASE IN OUTFLOW HAS HELPED TO
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM OVER THE SHORT TERM. A 121803Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
THE LLCC HAD AT LEAST 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS, WITH AT LEAST ONE EDGE OF
SWATH WIND BARB SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS. BASED ON THE PARTIAL HIT, THE
INTENSITY FOR THE 00Z POSITION WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. THIS WAS
SUPPORTED BY A 2.0 DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW. THE FORECAST HAS THE LLCC
STARTING TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE ASSOCIATIONED WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU
24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC
03S, THAT IS STEERING THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, AS TC 03S MOVES TO
THE SOUTH, THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) TO INCREASE TO HIGH VALUES BY TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASING
VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) TO BEGIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
ET PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:26 pm

13/0230 UTC 14.8S 61.9E T2.0/2.0 CLEO -- Southwest Indian

30 knots
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#85 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:20 am

ZCZC 602
WTIO30 FMEE 131209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/6/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-CLEO)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/13 AT 1200 UTC :
15.9S / 61.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/14 00 UTC: 17.6S/61.3E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/12/14 12 UTC: 19.3S/60.8E FILLING UP.
36H: 2009/12/15 00 UTC: 20.2S/60.8E FILLING UP.
48H: 2009/12/15 12 UTC: 21.1S/60.9E FILLING UP.
60H: 2009/12/16 00 UTC: 21.7S/60.6E FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, UNDERGOING DIURNAL EFFECT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS
WEAK.
THE SYSTEM IS COMING OVER LESS ENERGITICS WATER, AND THE APPROCHING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL
UP
IN THE SOUTH EAST OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.=
NNNN


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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:32 am

Image

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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:34 pm

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.2S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BRIEF
PERIODS OF CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
GENEROUS BASED ON A 1.5 DVORAK FROM PGTW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS HAD
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. BASED ON PREVIOUS PASSES THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR INTENSITY. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AND
THE PROGRESSIVE DETERIORATION OF THE LLCC, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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