BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

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BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:08 pm

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Re: BOB : INVEST 96B

#2 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:31 am

BOB 05/2009/01 Dated: 10. 12. 2009

Time of issue: 1730 hours IST



Sub: Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal



Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 10th December 2009 near lat. 6.50 N and long. 85.00 E, about 400 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 750 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 900 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards east coast of Sri Lanka during next 48 hours.



Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from 12th December 2009. Increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamil Nadu from 13th December 2009 onwards.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 11th December 2009. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.



Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 10th December 2009
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Re: BOB : INVEST 96B

#3 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:32 am

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Re: BOB : INVEST 96B

#4 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:47 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 84.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 84.1E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 2
DISTINCT COMMA-SHAPED AREAS OF SUSTAINED AND DEEPENING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AND ORGANIZE AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100425Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK WINDS AT
THE CORE OF A DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER (15 TO 25
KNOT) FLOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE LLCC. COLOMBO (VCBI) IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT 1006 MB, WHICH REPRESENTS A 1 MB DECREASE FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD,
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: BOB : INVEST 96B

#5 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:09 am

10/1430 UTC 6.7N 84.3E T1.5/1.5 96B -- Bay of Bengal


TXIO29 KNES 101440


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96B)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 6.7N

D. 84.3E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WHILE
MET IS 1.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1319Z 6.7N 83.9E SSMIS


...TURK
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 10, 2009 3:16 pm

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Looks like it's organizing
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 10, 2009 3:18 pm

10/1430 UTC 6.7N 84.3E T1.5/1.5 96B -- Bay of Bengal

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
84.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 84.1E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM'S OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING WINDS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURES FROM 1005 TO
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:57 pm

10/2030 UTC 7.4N 84.4E T2.0/2.0 96B -- Bay of Bengal

30 knots
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Re: BOB : INVEST 96B

#9 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 10, 2009 5:03 pm

Now a Depression.

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-12-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 2100 utc OF 10 DECEMBER, 2009 based on 1800 UTC of 10 DECEMBER, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10TH DECEMBER 2009 NEAR LAT. 6.50 N AND LONG. 85.00 E, ABOUT 400 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BATTICALOA (43436), 750 KM SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) AND 900 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43278). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES CONTINOUS ORGANIsATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST THREE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. THERE ARE TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SYSTEM. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 2.50 N TO 11.50 N AND LONG. 81.00 TO 89.50 E AND ADJOINING SRILANKA. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -750C.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 25 KNOTS. the state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1003 hpa.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 80N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURES ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 280-300 C OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THEY HAVE INCREASED IN LAST THREE HOURS. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#10 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:30 pm

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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#11 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:35 pm

11/0230 UTC 8.4N 84.6E T2.0/2.0 96B -- Bay of Bengal
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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#12 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:48 pm

BOB 05/2009/04 Dated: 11. 12. 2009

Time of issue: 0800 hours IST
Sub: Deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal

The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 7.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. The system is likely to cross Sri Lanka coast between lat. 8.50 N and 9.50 N by evening of tomorrow, the 12th December, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from 13th December 2009 morning onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 11th December 2009



Based on latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:16 am

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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#14 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:47 am

WTIO21 PGTW 110530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 85.1E TO 9.6N 82.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
84.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT AN AREA OF STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL TURNING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT YET FULLY CONSOLIDATED AND IT IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS. A 111530Z ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A NORTH-
SOUTH ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
POSITIONED TO SUPPORT FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY STRONG RADIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO ASSESSED AS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120530Z.
//
NNNN

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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#15 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:49 am

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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#16 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 4:00 am

11/0830 UTC 8.9N 84.8E T2.5/2.5 96B -- Bay of Bengal
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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#17 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 11, 2009 7:43 am

Upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Ward.

BOB 05/2009/07 Dated: 11. 12. 2009

Time of issue: 1730 hours IST


Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message


The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm, WARD and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 8.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 300 km east-northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 550 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 700 km south-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours.


However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.


Based on latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

11-12-.2009/1430
8.5/84.5
65-75 gusting to 85

11-12-2009/1730
8.5/84.5
65-75 gusting to 85

11-12-2009/2330
9.0/84.0
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/0530
9.5/83.5
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/1130
10.0/83.0
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/2330
10.5/82.0
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/1130
11.0/81.0
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/2330
11.0/80.0
65-75 gusting to 85

14-12-2009/1130
11.0/79.0
45-55 gusting to 65


Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from 12th December 2009 evening onwards.


Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.


Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 11th December 2009
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Re: BOB : DEPRESSION (96B)

#18 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 7:56 am

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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:20 am

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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:01 am

11/1430 UTC 9.1N 85.0E T3.0/3.0 05B -- Bay of Bengal

45 knots
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