BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#21 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 11:06 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (96B)

#22 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 11:23 am

WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 9.1N 85.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 85.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.8N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.3N 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.7N 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.1N 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.0N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 85.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS SUFFICIENTLY
CONSOLIDATED AND MEETS THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS
ACCORDING TO DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM HAS
SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTH WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE PAST FEW DAY, AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM.
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM SITS BENEATH A POINT SOURCE, WHICH IS PROVIDING
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND PRONOUNCED RADIAL OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW AS WELL. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG ZONAL JET RUNNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA, IS LOCATED
LESS THAN 4 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE TC. GFS AND NOGAPS FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE JET WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND 15N BY TAU 48,
ALLOWING FOR SLOW TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO JUST A FEW CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND THERE IS
OVER A 600 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE SOUTHERNMOST (GFDN) AND NORTHERN-
MOST (WBAR) MEMBER AT TAU 72. BOTH GFS AND NOGAPS, THE REMAINING TWO
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, DROP THE CIRCULATION AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS, THEN SPEEDS UP BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
TO THE NORTH (AND CONSENSUS SLOWS). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110530Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 110530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z,
120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#23 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:29 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#24 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:31 pm

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 DEC 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 9:30:38 N Lon : 85:01:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -75.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:10 pm

Image

Looking quite good
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#26 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Dec 11, 2009 4:44 pm

Should intensify steadily during the next couple of days
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#27 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:07 pm

The name Ward, while English-sounding, was submitted by Oman and actually is the male collective form of the word "rose" in Arabic. If one assumes the names on the 2009 Atlantic/2012 EPac lists to be named after people named after the flower, there are a total of eight rose flower-related TC names:

Atlantic: Rose
Eastern Pacific: Rosa
Central Pacific: Loke (rose in Hawaiian)
Western Pacific: Jangmi (rose in Korean), Kulap (rose in Thai), Mawar (rose in Malay)
North Indian Ocean: Ward (transliteration of rose in Arabic)
Australia (Jakarta namelist): Mawar (rose in Indonesian)
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#28 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:38 pm

learned something, Chacor

I was thinking it was a male name, as in Ward Cleaver from Leave it to Beaver
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:40 pm

11/2030 UTC 9.7N 84.4E T3.5/3.5 WARD -- Bay of Bengal

55 knots
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:40 pm

11/2030 UTC 9.7N 84.4E T3.5/3.5 WARD -- Bay of Bengal

55 knots
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:41 pm

Image

Image

Latest
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 11, 2009 11:06 pm

Not the best organized of storms yet, although the inner core might be getting together. Looks like about 50 kt to me.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#33 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 12, 2009 4:24 am

Its going down

Image
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#34 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:38 am

looks like some mid level shear blasted it apart
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#35 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 12, 2009 10:28 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPCAL STORM ‘WARD’ ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 12th DECEMBER, 2009 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 12th DECEMBER, 2009.

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘WARD’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS, SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND LAY AS A CYCLONIC STORM OVER THE SAME REGION, CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH DECEMBER 2009 NEAR LAT. 10.00 N AND LONG. 84.00 E, ABOUT 350 KM NORTHEAST OF BATTICALOA (43436) (SRI LANKA), 450 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) AND 500 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO FURTHER ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5 RPT T2.5. SYSTEM SHOWS INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 6.00 N TO 12.50 N AND LONG. 81.50 TO 88.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -650 C. THE OUT GOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) AT 0900 UTC IS ABOUT 120-140 W/M2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 35-40 KNOTS gusting to 50 KNOTS. the state of the sea is high around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 998 hpa.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 110N.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN NAGAPATTINAM (43347) AND PAMBAN (43363) BY NIGHT OF TOMORROW, THE 13TH DECEMBER, 2009.. 24 HRS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T2.5.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 35-40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS LIKELY ALONG AND OFF NORTH SRI LANKA COAST FR0M TOMORROW, THE 13TH DECEMBER, 2009.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:





Date/Time(UTC)
Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

12-12-2009/0900
10.0/84.0
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/1200
10.0/83.5
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/1800
10.0/82.5
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/0000
10.0/82.0
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/0600
10.0/81.0
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/1200
10.0/80.5
65-75 gusting to 85

14-12-2009/0000
10.0/79.0
55-65 gusting to 75

14-12-2009/1200
10.0/78.0
45-55 gusting to 65
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:21 pm

Image

Latest. Looking better
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:39 pm

12/1430 UTC 8.5N 83.2E T2.5/3.5 WARD -- Bay of Bengal

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:45 pm

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 8.5N 82.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 82.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 7.9N 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.9N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.2N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.5N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 82.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
BRIEFLY BECAME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT TRACKED TOWARDS SRI LANKA. CONVEC-
TION REDEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC WITH A DEEPER BAND OF CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHEAST ALSO STARTING TO BUILD. ORGANIZATION FOR TC 05B HAS
SEEN SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS SRI LANKA, FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
POLEWARD CHANNEL TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HELPING TO VENT THE
SYSTEM. POOR ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD. LANDFALL INTO SRI
LANKA IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12, EXITING AROUND TAU 24 AND PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MANNAR INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA AND DISSI-
PATING BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#39 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:51 pm

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 83.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 83.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 8.8N 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 8.8N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.9N 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.1N 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.4N 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON NEW INFORMATION, THE TRACK FOR TC
05S HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE TRACK SPEED HAS
BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ORGANIZATION TO TC 05B HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TO LLCC IS SLIGHTLY DIS-
PLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER OF THIS CONVECTION DUE TO A
LOW AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF TC 05B. LANDFALL WITH SRI LANKA IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24,
WITH THE LLCC TRACKING INTO THE PALK STRAIT BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THERE IS NOT A GREAT
EXPECTATION FOR THE LLCC TO MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION WHILE TRACKING
ACROSS SRI LANKA. THE REMNANTS OF THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA, AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:27 pm

12/2100 UTC 9.4N 83.4E T2.5/2.5 WARD -- Bay of Bengal

35 knots
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests