BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

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HURAKAN
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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:21 am

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WTIO31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 8.8N 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.8N 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 8.8N 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.0N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION. A 131144Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND
CONVECTION DISPLACED 60 NM TO THE EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC WARD IS STILL LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA NEAR TAU
24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:32 am

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Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#43 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Dec 13, 2009 2:08 pm

TC Ward is quite small. Not surprising, considering that it is in the North Indian Ocean.
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:11 pm

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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:11 pm

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 8.9N 81.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 81.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.9N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.0N 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.3N 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE WEST. CONVECTION IS SPORADICALLY DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS SRI LANKA AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UPON MAKING LANDFALL WITH SRI
LANKA. ONCE THE LLCC MOVES BACK OVER WATER, AROUND TAU 24, THERE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. COMPLETE DISSIPATION
IS EXPECTED AS TC 05B MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN
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#46 Postby Cookie » Mon Dec 14, 2009 6:40 am

thanks for all the updates on this quite active and busy spell.
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:02 am

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.7N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 81.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED WITH BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. A 140510Z TRMM 37V GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA WITH
WEAKLY CURVED BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA, AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:02 am

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Intense precipitation affecting Sri Lanka
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Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#49 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:18 pm

Last advisory.

BOB 05/2009/32 Dated: 15. 12. 2009

Time of issue: 2000 hours IST

Sub: Low pressure area over Gulf of Mannar and neighbourhood

The well marked low pressure area over Sri Lanka and neighbourhood moved westwards and lay as a low pressure area over Gulf of Mannar and neighborhood at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 15th December, 2009.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with scattered heavy and isolated very heavy to extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 36 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over interior Tamil Nadu during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off south Tamil Nadu coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast during next 12 hours.

This is the last bulletin for this system.
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Re: BOB : CYCLONIC STORM WARD (05B)

#50 Postby Sanibel » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:30 pm

Nice dry season rain for Sri Lanka.


South Pacific, Australia, and Bay Of Bengal active.
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