WPAC:Tropical Disturbance (90W)

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WPAC:Tropical Disturbance (90W)

#1 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:46 pm

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Last edited by Crostorm on Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC-Invest 90W

#2 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:00 pm

TXPN24 KNES 072254
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 07/2030Z

C. 10.9N

D. 129.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CU FIELD ENOUGH TO GO BACK TO THE 2030Z PICTURE AND USE SWIR TO FIND
CENTER AND START CLASSIFICATIONS. GOOD CONVERGENCE CONVECTION TO NW HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF FOR OVER 3-6HRS AND BANDS .2 ON LOG10 TO WARRANT DT OF
1.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5 AS CONVECTION IS VERY COLD TOO. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA
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Re: WPAC:Tropical Disturbance (90W)

#3 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:15 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 072330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 129.9E TO 9.9N 123.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 072030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 129.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A
SHEARLINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY BUILDING TOWARDS THE LLCC
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 071311Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, WITH
WEAKER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTH-
EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. BASED ON THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC, WITH INCREASED
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 25 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 082330Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC:Tropical Disturbance (90W)

#4 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:16 pm

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#5 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:05 pm

It looks like a pretty small storm. Wonder if it will amount to anything.
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Re: WPAC:Tropical Disturbance (90W)

#6 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:42 am

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#7 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:43 am

thats looks like it can be a HUGE storm!
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#8 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Dec 10, 2009 5:51 pm

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
164.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM PAPUA
NEW GUINEA TOWARDS FIJI, WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNORGANIZED AND IS FLARING ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH. A 092148Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL TURNING LOCATED NEAR THE SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGES FROM 10 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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Re:

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:13 pm

StormingB81 wrote:(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
164.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM PAPUA
NEW GUINEA TOWARDS FIJI, WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNORGANIZED AND IS FLARING ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH. A 092148Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL TURNING LOCATED NEAR THE SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGES FROM 10 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.


That discussion is for another system in the SPAC.

Below is the discussion for 90W in the WPAC.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... bpwweb.txt

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.9N 168.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 101816Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE LLCC WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. KWAJALEIN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FALL OF 2MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND IS REPORTING A CURRENT PRESSURE OF 1006, SIGNALING THE
PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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#10 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:56 pm

I knew I was going to copy he wrong one!
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Re: WPAC:Tropical Disturbance (90W)

#11 Postby dowdavek » Thu Dec 10, 2009 7:42 pm

Hmm... already starting to watch this on Guam :eek:
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#12 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:24 pm

Appears to be a totally different system from the original 90W now. This one's moving southeast and as of last check on NRL was at 0 N 170.2 E (i.e., on the equator).
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#13 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 12, 2009 12:22 am

It may be dragging toward southeast by 90P?
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