TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

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#161 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:54 pm

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The JTWC may want to revise that 35 knot estimate!!!
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#162 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 7:33 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 66
Issued at 6:30 pm WST on Saturday, 19 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Wallal
including Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Wallal to Port Hedland and
adjacent inland parts of the Pilbara.

At 5:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
100 kilometres north northwest of Broome and moving
southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is moving southwest close to the Kimberley coast.

GALES are occurring at offshore islands and possibly along the Kimberley coast
between Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay. GALES may extend further down the coast to
Broome and Bidyadanga later today or early on Sunday, possibly reaching Wallal
later on Sunday.

Destructive winds with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are possible in
coastal areas north of Broome and south of Beagle Bay tonight although the risk
should decrease if Laurence moves away from the coast as expected.

GALES could extend further down the coast to Port Hedland on Monday.

The cyclone is expected to intensify further on Sunday and Monday into a severe
Tropical Cyclone. Laurence should take a more southerly track on Monday and then
south eastwards towards the east Pilbara coast with the risk of VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds occurring near the cyclone centre.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue today and overnight in coastal parts of
the west Kimberley with 24 hour falls in excess of 100mm possible.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities from Cape Leveque to Broome, including One
Arm Point, Djarindjin and Lombadina need to take action and get ready to shelter
from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the communities from Bidyadanga to Wallal, need to prepare
for cyclonic weather.
Communities in northern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.1 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Saturday 19 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone


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#163 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 7:47 am

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#164 Postby Craiga74 » Sat Dec 19, 2009 8:09 am

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Saturday, 19 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Pardoo
including Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
adjacent inland parts of the Pilbara.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
85 kilometres north northwest of Broome and moving
southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence, located just off the west Kimberley coast is now
moving away from the coast towards the southwest.

GALES with wind gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are likely to be occurring
along the coast north of Broome to Cape Leveque. GALES may extend further down
the coast to Broome and Bidyadanga overnight, possibly reaching Pardoo later on
Sunday. GALES could extend further down the coast to Port Hedland on Monday.

The cyclone is expected to intensify further on Sunday and Monday into a severe
Tropical Cyclone. Laurence should take a more southerly track on Monday towards
the east Pilbara coast with the risk of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds near the cyclone
centre reaching coastal areas during Monday.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue this evening and overnight in coastal
parts of the west Kimberley with 24 hour falls in excess of 100mm possible.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities from Cape Leveque to Broome, including One
Arm Point, Djarindjin and Lombadina need to take action and get ready to shelter
from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the communities from Bidyadanga to Wallal, need to prepare
for cyclonic weather.
Communities in northern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.3 degrees South 121.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Sunday 20 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

#165 Postby Sanibel » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:09 am

Larry's a real fighter. Second landfall should be a doozy.
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#166 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:45 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 68
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Saturday, 19 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Pardoo
including Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
adjacent inland parts of the Pilbara.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
95 kilometres northwest of Broome and moving
southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence, located just off the west Kimberley coast continues
to move away from the coast towards the southwest.

GALES with wind gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are likely to be occurring
along the coast north of Broome to Cape Leveque. GALES may extend further down
the coast to Broome and Bidyadanga overnight, possibly reaching Pardoo later on
Sunday. GALES could extend further down the coast to Port Hedland on Monday.

The cyclone is expected to intensify further on Sunday and Monday into a severe
Tropical Cyclone. Laurence should take a more southerly track on Monday towards
the east Pilbara coast with the risk of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds near the cyclone
centre reaching coastal areas during Monday.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue this morning in coastal parts of the west
Kimberley with isolated falls in excess of 100mm possible over 24 hours.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities from Cape Leveque to Broome, including One
Arm Point, Djarindjin and Lombadina need to take action and get ready to shelter
from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the communities from Bidyadanga to Pardoo need to prepare
for cyclonic weather.
Communities in the eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 121.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Sunday 20 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone


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#167 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:46 am

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#168 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:47 am

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WTXS33 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.2S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.7S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.8S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAURENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA UNDER THE PREDOMINATE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED NEAR 35 KNOTS, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY BROOME AND RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SEAWARD (AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF LAND) WHERE IT WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW MECHANISMS
ALOFT. THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH AROUND TAU 36 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. IN GENERAL, ALL AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48
AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

#169 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 19, 2009 1:12 pm

Sanibel wrote:Larry's a real fighter. Second landfall should be a doozy.


Just so you know, Cyclone Larry was a powerful cyclone that hit a few years ago (06, I think) and had its name retired.
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#170 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:13 pm

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#171 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:20 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 70
Issued at 5:50 am WST on Sunday, 20 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Pardoo,
including Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Port Hedland.

The Cyclone WARNING from Cape Leveque to Beagle Bay has been cancelled.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
125 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
235 kilometres north northeast of Wallal
moving southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence, located off the west Kimberley coast continues to
move away from the coast towards the southwest.

GALES with wind gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may occur along the coast
between Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome. GALES may extend further
down the coast south of Bidyadanga during the day, possibly reaching Pardoo late
in the day. GALES could extend further down the coast to Port Hedland on Monday
if the system maintains a more southwest track.

The cyclone is expected to intensify further during the day into a severe
Tropical Cyclone. Laurence should take a more southerly track on Monday towards
the east Pilbara coast with the risk of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds near the cyclone
centre reaching coastal areas during Monday.

Heavy rainfall is expected to ease in coastal parts of the west Kimberley during
the day but increase in coastal parts of the east Pilbara.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities from Beagle Bay to Eco Beach, including
Broome need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities from Eco Beach to Pardoo need to prepare for
cyclonic weather.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities from Cape Leveque to Beagle Bay
are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities in the eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.7 degrees South 121.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Sunday 20 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone


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#172 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:25 pm

19/2030 UTC 17.7S 121.1E T3.5/3.5 LAURENCE -- Southeast Indian

55 knots
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#173 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:59 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 19/12/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 121.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [234 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm [120 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0600: 18.4S 120.4E: 030 [055]: 080 [150]: 961
+24: 20/1800: 18.9S 120.3E: 050 [095]: 100 [185]: 941
+36: 21/0600: 19.4S 120.3E: 070 [130]: 100 [185]: 940
+48: 21/1800: 19.8S 120.5E: 090 [165]: 100 [185]: 940
+60: 22/0600: 20.3S 120.7E: 120 [220]: 080 [150]: 959
+72: 22/1800: 21.2S 121.6E: 160 [295]: 055 [100]: 981
REMARKS:
TC Laurence has re-intensified having emerged off the west Kimberley coast north
of Broome. The circulation has excellent structure through depth, vertical wind
shear is low and oceanic heat content is high so the system is expected to
rapidly intensify in the next 12-24 hours. Very deep convection is evident about
the centre particularly in the western eye-wall region with tightening curvature
near the centre indicated from Broome radar and latest microwave imagery.

Dvorak pattern estimate difficult with constraints on embedded centre and land
influences affecting 24 hour old estimates for MET determination. FT/CI=4.0
based on best MET estimate and earlier ragged eye on VIS imagery. Max mean
winds of 60 knots.

Gales have been reported from several sites north of Broome.

Laurence continues to track to the southwest with a weak mid-level ridge to the
south that is likely to erode in 12-36 hours when motion should slow and become
more southerly towards the coast late on Sunday and on Monday. The likelihood of
a severe cyclone impact along the east Pilbara coast therefore remains high. In
the longer term the system is expected to be caught in an upper westerly flow
with a short wave feature that comes through on Tuesday.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#174 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 6:59 pm

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#175 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:21 pm

AXAU01 APRF 200101
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0101 UTC 20/12/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 121.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [234 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/1200: 18.3S 120.8E: 040 [075]: 075 [140]: 951
+24: 21/0000: 18.8S 120.7E: 060 [110]: 090 [165]: 941
+36: 21/1200: 19.3S 120.8E: 080 [150]: 100 [185]: 940
+48: 22/0000: 19.8S 120.9E: 100 [185]: 080 [150]: 950
+60: 22/1200: 20.4S 121.4E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 968
+72: 23/0000: 21.4S 122.9E: 160 [295]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
TC Laurence has gone through a structural change. The small inner feature that
was still evident when it came off the coast yesterday has been lost and the
partial eyewall now evident in radar and microwave has a much larger radius.
Dvorak assessment is difficult due to the lack of prominent banding features.
AMSU CH7/8 images show a steady improvement in the thermal anomaly and some
improvement is evident in recent microwave imagery, although the system still
lacks an eyewall to the northeast.

Laurence continues to track to the southwest with a weak mid-level ridge to the
south that is likely to erode in 12-36 hours when motion should slow and become
more southerly towards the coast late on Sunday and on Monday. The likelihood of
a severe cyclone impact along the east Pilbara coast therefore remains high. In
the longer term the system is expected to be caught in an upper westerly flow
with a short wave feature that comes through on Tuesday.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#176 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:22 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 71
Issued at 9:00 am WST on Sunday, 20 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Pardoo,
including Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
extending to inland parts of the Pilbara and Kimberley including Telfer.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
120 kilometres west of Broome and
230 kilometres north northeast of Wallal
moving southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

A period of GALES with wind gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may occur along the
coast between Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome, during today as
Laurence tracks southwestwards. GALES may extend further down the coast south of
Bidyadanga during the day, possibly reaching Pardoo on Monday morning. GALES
could extend further down the coast to Port Hedland late on Monday or on Tuesday
if the system maintains a more southwest track; however it is expected to take a
more southerly track on Monday, towards 80 mile beach.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to intensify before reaching the coast and
there the risk of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds in coastal parts of the east Pilbara
late Monday or on Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal parts of the west Kimberley and east
Pilbara over the next twenty four hours.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities from Broome to Eco Beach need to take action
and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities from Bidyadanga to Pardoo need to prepare for
cyclonic weather.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near Beagle Bay are advised to proceed with
caution.
Communities in the eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 121.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST [midday] Sunday 20
December.Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are
available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#177 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:36 pm

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Eye popping back
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#178 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:47 pm

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WTXS33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.0S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.4S 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND EXPANDED AS TC 06S TRACKED OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO
SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR IMAGERY LOOP FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC LAURENCE IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AROUND TAU 24 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND BEFORE TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY THEREAFTER, AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY
AND RUGGED TERRAIN IN ADDITION TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN
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#179 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 19, 2009 10:40 pm

peak intensity 75kts? I think that is an underestimated forecast
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#180 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:07 pm

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Eye see you
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