SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DAVID (05S)

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SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DAVID (05S)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:24 pm

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 85.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW INTO A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC, TO THE WEST OF A REGION OF STRONG
CONVERGENCE. THE LLCC HAS SEEN SPORADIC CONVECTION DEVELOP, AND THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING AREA FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:44 pm

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WTXS22 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 85.3E TO 10.6S 80.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6S
84.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVEC-
TION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 121625Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN HALF WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC
IS STILL IN TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 131.0E.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO : INVEST 93S

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:31 pm

12/2030 UTC 9.1S 84.1E T1.5/1.5 93S -- Southwest Indian

25 knots
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:32 pm

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#5 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:41 am

MF is issuing warnings, this is now Tropical Disturbance 7R.
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:14 am

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WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.2S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 83.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIKELY DUE TO DIURNAL TRENDS. A 130138Z
SSMIS 37H IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 130330Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
ONLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
HIGHER THAN ASCAT AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR
OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST TO
THE STR BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS
THE TRACK WESTWARD. TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A 30-35 KNOT INTENSITY
AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-70 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 122052Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 122100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:16 am

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:33 am

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 (05S)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:43 pm

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.4S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.8S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.0S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.8S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.3S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS LOST MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION, BUT HAS A DEEP BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF.
A 131604Z SSMI PASS SHOWS THAT WEAK BANDING AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND SUPPORTS THE LLCC BEING LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR TC 05S HAS BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
EXTENSION THAT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH HAVE INTERACTED WITH TC 05S
AND HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE REGION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL STR POSITIONED EAST TO THE STR BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE TRACK WESTWARD. TC 05S SHOULD
MAINTAIN A 30-35 KNOT INTENSITY AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH TAU
24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-70 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:12 pm

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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:00 am

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
67.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 65.3E, APPROXIMATELY 795 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN TOWARDS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. DESPITE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION THE CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED
SINCE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
BUT WEAK DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. OUTFLOW IS POSITIONED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:24 pm

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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:25 pm

19/2030 UTC 11.9S 63.3E T2.5/2.5 05S -- Southwest Indian

35 knots
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:49 am

MF and JTWC have restarted bulletins.

WTIO30 FMEE 200703 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/7/20092010

1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2009/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 11.1S / 62.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL


6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/20 18 UTC: 11.0S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/12/21 06 UTC: 10.8S/61.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/12/21 18 UTC: 10.6S/61.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/12/22 06 UTC: 11.4S/62.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/12/22 18 UTC: 12.2S/63.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/12/23 06 UTC: 13.3S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM NR7 MONITORED LAST WEEK HAS GLOBALLY TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING THE LAST 6 DAYS, WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER, MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AROUND 0000Z (TRMM, F15, F16, CORIOLIS) SHOW
A CLEAR IMPROVING OF THE SYSTEM'S ASPECT, SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN,
AND CONVETION, EVEN FLUCTUANTING ON THE IR ANIMATED IMAGERY SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES HOWEVER A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT, SHOWN ON THE
IMAGERY THANKS TO THE CIRRUS, AND MOST OF ALL, THANKS TO THE LLCC
APPEARING NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.
SYSTEM ENVIRONNEMENT IS NEUTRAL. LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED, EVEN
STILL WEAK EQUATORWARDS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL - MAINLY
POLEWARDS- BUT A WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD HOWEVER INTENSIFY SLOWLY WINTHIN THE NEXT DAYS, AS THE MONSOON
INFLOW BECOMES MORE DIRECT.
NWP DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED OF THE MOTION BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A TRACK CHANGING OF DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS INDEED UNDER THE STEERING
OF TWO COMPETING FLOWS DUES TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND A RIDGE LOCATED
NEAR THE EQUATOR.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.


WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.2S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.2S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.6S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS ON TC 05S. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES (2.5/2.5) FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO 35 KNOTS.
WITHIN THE PAST THREE HOURS THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF DIURNALLY-FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. NONETHELESS,
A 200138Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS, PROVIDED
BY CIRA-RAMMB, INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE ALOFT. DESPITE
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOW TO
STEADY OVER THE NEXT DAY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD AS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INSTEAD OF RECURVING INTO THE
WESTERLIES, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120. INCREASED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS OR
GREATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:30 am

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JTWC's Track

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Meteo France Track
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:31 am

ZCZC 401
WTIO30 FMEE 201205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/7/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2009/12/20 AT 1200 UTC :
11.0S / 62.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/21 00 UTC: 11.1S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/12/21 12 UTC: 11.2S/61.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/22 00 UTC: 11.4S/62.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/22 12 UTC: 11.9S/62.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/12/23 00 UTC: 12.5S/63.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2009/12/23 12 UTC: 13.2S/64.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM NR7 MONITORED LAST WEEK HAS GLOBALLY TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST 6 DAYS, WITHOUT DEEPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER, MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AROUND 0000Z (TRMM, F15, F16, CORIOLIS)
SHOWS
THE SYSTEM'S ASPECT HAS IMPROVED, AS IT SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN,
AND
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED ON CLASSIC IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES HOWEVER A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT, SHOWN ON THE
IMAGERY WITH THE WELL DEFINED LLCC EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
SYSTEM ENVIRONNEMENT IS NEUTRAL; LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED,
UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL - MAINLY POLEWARDS- BUT A WEAK TO MODERATE
WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HOWEVER INTENSIFY SLOWLY
WITHIN
THE NEXT DAYS, AS THE MONSOON INFLOW STRENGTHENS.
NWP DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED OF THE MOTION BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH
A SWINGING TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS INDEED UNDER THE STEERING OF TWO
COMPETING FLOWS ASSOCIATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND A RIDGE
LOCATED
NEAR THE EQUATOR.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.=
NNNN
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:35 am

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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:46 pm

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Re: SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 (05S)

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:33 pm

WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.1S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.1S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.3S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.5S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A 201659Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TWO
STEERING MECHANISMS, A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST ARE COMPETING FOR CONTROL OVER THE SYSTEM. THE TC IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND RECEDES TO THE WEST. IT WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES WITH THE RECEDING RIDGE AND THE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS HIGH ALONG THE TRACK. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
BUT HAS A WIDE ENVELOPE WITH GFDN TO THE FAR LEFT AND WBAR TO THE FAR
RIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE JTWC
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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