#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:49 am
MF and JTWC have restarted bulletins.
WTIO30 FMEE 200703 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/7/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2009/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 11.1S / 62.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/20 18 UTC: 11.0S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/12/21 06 UTC: 10.8S/61.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/12/21 18 UTC: 10.6S/61.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/12/22 06 UTC: 11.4S/62.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/12/22 18 UTC: 12.2S/63.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/12/23 06 UTC: 13.3S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM NR7 MONITORED LAST WEEK HAS GLOBALLY TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING THE LAST 6 DAYS, WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER, MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AROUND 0000Z (TRMM, F15, F16, CORIOLIS) SHOW
A CLEAR IMPROVING OF THE SYSTEM'S ASPECT, SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN,
AND CONVETION, EVEN FLUCTUANTING ON THE IR ANIMATED IMAGERY SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES HOWEVER A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT, SHOWN ON THE
IMAGERY THANKS TO THE CIRRUS, AND MOST OF ALL, THANKS TO THE LLCC
APPEARING NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.
SYSTEM ENVIRONNEMENT IS NEUTRAL. LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED, EVEN
STILL WEAK EQUATORWARDS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL - MAINLY
POLEWARDS- BUT A WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD HOWEVER INTENSIFY SLOWLY WINTHIN THE NEXT DAYS, AS THE MONSOON
INFLOW BECOMES MORE DIRECT.
NWP DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED OF THE MOTION BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A TRACK CHANGING OF DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS INDEED UNDER THE STEERING
OF TWO COMPETING FLOWS DUES TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND A RIDGE LOCATED
NEAR THE EQUATOR.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.
WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.2S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.2S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.6S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS ON TC 05S. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES (2.5/2.5) FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO 35 KNOTS.
WITHIN THE PAST THREE HOURS THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF DIURNALLY-FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. NONETHELESS,
A 200138Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS, PROVIDED
BY CIRA-RAMMB, INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE ALOFT. DESPITE
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOW TO
STEADY OVER THE NEXT DAY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD AS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INSTEAD OF RECURVING INTO THE
WESTERLIES, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120. INCREASED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS OR
GREATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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