West Pacific Invest 91W

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dowdavek
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West Pacific Invest 91W

#1 Postby dowdavek » Fri Dec 18, 2009 8:32 pm

New area of convection that we are beginning to watch in Guam for possible development. Convection starting to build. :eek:


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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 18, 2009 9:31 pm

From Guam NWS discussion.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
723 AM CHST SAT DEC 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST ZONES. SIMILAR WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WAS
SAGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR IWO TO. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION WAS
CONCENTRATING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF JTWC INVEST AREA 91W...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. NOT MUCH TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RELATIVELY DRY
TRADE- WIND PATTERN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE PLOT THICKENS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
INCLEMENT WEATHER INTO THE FORECAST ZONES AT THAT TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST CONVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH 91W WILL BE OVER THE
MARIANAS FROM ROUGHLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLD FRONT NEAR IWO TO WILL HAVE STALLED AS A SHEAR LINE
NEAR ANATAHAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
MARIANAS...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
BRING 91W THROUGH AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THIS FORECAST SCENARIO AS
CONVECTION HAS CONCENTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF 91W. NOGAPS
BRINGS 91W THROUGH AS A TC JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT FAVOR ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AT PRESENT. ALL
THREE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 91W COULD INTERACT WITH THE SHEAR
LINE...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THIS POSSIBLE WRINKLE IN THE
FORECAST.
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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#3 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:01 pm

Forecast agencies have been predicting the development of this system, about 4 or 5 days ago...
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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#4 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 19, 2009 1:29 am

initial tracks for 91W

Image

i find it wierd for a system to form during Christmas...
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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#5 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:35 am

Image

Image
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dowdavek
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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#6 Postby dowdavek » Mon Dec 21, 2009 8:48 am

Hard to tell what it's doing at this point. We're expecting some minor winds with lots of rain here on Guam.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 21, 2009 2:22 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZDEC2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
154.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST
OF GUAM. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN RELOCATED SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE
NORTHWEST, AND IS NOW CENTERED ON A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
TO THE EAST OF GUAM. A WEAKENED AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ALL THAT REMAINS NEAR 7.4N 154.9E, AND IS NOT CURRENTLY
SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS YET TO BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#8 Postby dowdavek » Mon Dec 21, 2009 9:43 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220200Z-220600ZDEC2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
149.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).//
NNNN
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Re: West Pacific Invest 91W

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 22, 2009 2:58 pm

The Mariana islands are with bad weather.

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