ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

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AussieMark
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#101 Postby AussieMark » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:01 am

KWT wrote:Without a doubt this becomes TD14 today, looking very good and I'd imagine next advisory cycle will see this one get upgraded.


any reason why GFS does not do miuch with this if at all?
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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:10 am

Image

much better organized, not as elongated
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#103 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:35 am

A good amount of unstable air around 94L with CAPE about 1500.

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#104 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:13 am

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#105 Postby bvigal » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:15 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good chance of a fish, I'd say. But until the models get a good grip on this (currently range from track of 270deg to 360deg), will keep watching carefully.
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#106 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:16 am

AL, 94, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 323W, 25, 1007, DB

seems like no upgrade
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:29 am

Image

Not sure why the NHC is waiting
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#108 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:31 am

Yeah there is nothing to justify it not being upgraded now, its a solid looking TD and may not be far from a TS either I bet!
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#109 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:33 am

I have to agree here, I cannot come up with a reason not to upgrade at 2 P.M.



I'd love a promet to contest that for the learning experience however...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#110 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:37 am

The models are doing funky things with this guy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#111 Postby TheBurn » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:53 am

Image
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#112 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:01 am

Thats certainly one of the better looking invests I've seen recently, no doubts this is a TD now IMO...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#113 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:19 am

Image

Closer inspection shows an exposed system but still, good enough to be upgraded
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#114 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:25 am

Image

a little elongated sw-ne
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#115 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:31 am

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I would still place development chances near 100%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#116 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:50 am

Euro ensembles have this finally moving west in about 120 hrs.

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#117 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:56 am

Link - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

Looking at a loop from the link above, although the system is exposed, the LLC looks very well-defined and the convection is organized enough to upgrade. Maybe the NHC knows something that we don't.
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Re:

#118 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:17 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

a little elongated sw-ne



Image
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#119 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:53 am

The only reason i can see that there is a couple different swirls rotating around. I guess they will hold off till it becomes more organized.
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#120 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:24 am

Image

Latest
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