ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

Re:

#101 Postby AussieMark » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:01 am

KWT wrote:Without a doubt this becomes TD14 today, looking very good and I'd imagine next advisory cycle will see this one get upgraded.


any reason why GFS does not do miuch with this if at all?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#102 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:10 am

Image

much better organized, not as elongated
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#103 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:35 am

A good amount of unstable air around 94L with CAPE about 1500.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#104 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:13 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2275
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#105 Postby bvigal » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:15 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good chance of a fish, I'd say. But until the models get a good grip on this (currently range from track of 270deg to 360deg), will keep watching carefully.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#106 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:16 am

AL, 94, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 323W, 25, 1007, DB

seems like no upgrade
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#107 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:29 am

Image

Not sure why the NHC is waiting
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#108 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:31 am

Yeah there is nothing to justify it not being upgraded now, its a solid looking TD and may not be far from a TS either I bet!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Weatherfreak000

#109 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:33 am

I have to agree here, I cannot come up with a reason not to upgrade at 2 P.M.



I'd love a promet to contest that for the learning experience however...
0 likes   

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#110 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:37 am

The models are doing funky things with this guy.
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 524
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#111 Postby TheBurn » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:53 am

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#112 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:01 am

Thats certainly one of the better looking invests I've seen recently, no doubts this is a TD now IMO...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#113 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:19 am

Image

Closer inspection shows an exposed system but still, good enough to be upgraded
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#114 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:25 am

Image

a little elongated sw-ne
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#115 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:31 am

Image

I would still place development chances near 100%
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#116 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:50 am

Euro ensembles have this finally moving west in about 120 hrs.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#117 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:56 am

Link - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

Looking at a loop from the link above, although the system is exposed, the LLC looks very well-defined and the convection is organized enough to upgrade. Maybe the NHC knows something that we don't.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re:

#118 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:17 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

a little elongated sw-ne



Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#119 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:53 am

The only reason i can see that there is a couple different swirls rotating around. I guess they will hold off till it becomes more organized.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#120 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:24 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests