ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


no signs of Nicole or Matt at 120hr....

[Vortex]

H144 canadian has a storm over southern florida..not very strong but once again..florida...



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps H180 has low pressure near western cuba...very similar to gfs in terms of timing and location but much much weaker...



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[T'Bonz]

are any of you floridians starting to worry about this, or not yet?

Nah. Watching cautiously. Will have the husband check our shutters this weekend, but other than that, all preps are set and have been for weeks.

[fci]

are any of you floridians starting to worry about this, or not yet?

I'm usually one of the last to worry (or at least be concerned) about a lot of systems; but this set up does concern me.
Look at my posts, I usually pooh-pooh the threats unless there is pretty good evidence to support the actual threat.
And if the Pro Mets start talking about it, then I pay close attention; like I am now.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z GFS Track

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z CMC...


Then...

[fci]

So, the "then" is the infamous Nicole that follows behind the Matthew that dies in CA??

[jlauderdal]

So, the "then" is the infamous Nicole that follows behind the Matthew that dies in CA??

im starting think matt goes inland and dies and no nicole once the models get a handle

[SouthFloridawx]

[blp]

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET 00Z

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z GFDL

[ronjon]

15 of the 20 member 00z GFS ensemble members now take Matthew north to northeast east of the Yucatan into the FL panhandle or peninsula - a shift east from the 18z guidance. TVCN (model consensus) now takes a path north along the east coast of the Yucatan to extreme western Cuba in 5 days. Probably going to shift the NHC track again based on the new consensus. I'm starting to think Matthew may just bounce off the coast of Belize, not die, and simply be the storm that tracks north to northeast out of the NW caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

15 of the 20 member 00z GFS ensemble members now take Matthew north to northeast east of the Yucatan into the FL panhandle or peninsula - a shift east from the 18z guidance. TVCN (model consensus) now takes a path north along the east coast of the Yucatan to extreme western Cuba in 5 days. Probably going to shift the NHC track again based on the new consensus. I'm starting to think Matthew may just bounce off the coast of Belize, not die, and simply be the storm that tracks north to northeast out of the NW caribbean.

that seems more reasonable then this secondary system that ramps up, still think matt never makes it out of there

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...


WED-FRI...FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MAJOR
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY TOWARD
FLORIDA. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE BUILDS TC MATTHEW W/NW TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN BY TUESDAY WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND.
BY MID WEEK THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OR WEAKENING OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS MODELS DEVELOP A MORE VIGOROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM
(CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW?) SOUTH OF CUBA AND LIFT IT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER AS
STATED BEFORE...SEVERE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES HAVE EXISTED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THESE SOLUTIONS
ATTM.

DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE WILL GO WITH A MORE GENERAL FORECAST OF
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40% EACH DAY AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL VALUES.






SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

[xironman]

From off the southwest coast of FL to the Canadian border in 36hrs.

[ronjon]

Looks like the GFS is warmng to the idea that Matthew moves inland and then back out into the western caribbean and strengthens. No second low development ala Nicole. If the other global models swing this way, look for NHC to go back to their first track idea.

[KWT]

The models are just everywhere with this system...

Most still suggest that Matthew isn't the one to watch but a slight shift east or west from the models is going to make the whole situation change again so don't put too much faith into the models at all in the next 48hrs to be frank.

06z GFS still creates a monster system and really rakes the east coast as it screams northwards.

[GCANE]

A chance this may stall out in the Bay of Honduras for a while before heading north.