ATL: OTTO - Models

[Blown Away]

Anyone notice the difference in the Initialization of the 00Z and the 06Z Models? Further North and East...

That's what I've been saying, it's the crest of the wave to the east that we need to watch, not the area down south between the two waves.

Do you think this NE relocation keeps 97L from reaching the CONUS?

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps in the SE bahamas in 6 days..forms from the weak signature this moring just east of the windwards...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

[otowntiger]

Does this have any chance of making it into the Gulf? I keep hearing people say how the season is over for the Western and Central gulf because of the troughs but I don't know how sure that is. When a front comes through does that mean no more storms can track through or would the front have to retreat as a warm front? Sorry, I have very little knowledge in all of this.

For at least the next 2 weeks, the Gulf will be dominated by a very strong SW-NE jet core as cool air spills out over the Gulf behind several fronts, the strongest of which may arrive on the 11th of October. That meas SW-WSW flow aloft of 40-80 kts all across the Gulf during that period. Anything approaching the NW Caribbean would be turned sharply northeast. You're safe in Baton Rouge.

Take a look at the upper left panel on the GFS forecast for 10 days out from now. West wind at 50-60 kts at 200 mb all the way down to the Yucatan. Can't get a storm in the Gulf with those winds.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

Thanks for your info wxman57. Does the same hold true for Florida and the east coast? I would assume so since the "troughiness" will be in place for much of that period if not the rest of the season, right? It seems to me that anything coming out of the NW Carribean, ala 'nichole' would be shunted sharply NE at least and maybe even severely sheared?.

[Vortex]

00Z ECM ensembles..broad area of low pressure around Jamaica in 6 days...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[GCANE]

Latest HPC discussion:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html



PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 05 2010 - 12Z FRI OCT 08 2010

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD IN DEVELOPING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINING A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE
OVER/NEAR CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THEM
FOR THE PRESSURES AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
CANADIAN COULD NOT BE USED DUE TO ITS RECURVING HURRICANE-LIKE
VORTEX JUST OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN HPC AND NHC AGREED NOT
TO RECURVE THIS FEATURE...WHICH FITS THE 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WHICH TRACKS IT SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES.

ROTH

[jlauderdal]

Does this have any chance of making it into the Gulf? I keep hearing people say how the season is over for the Western and Central gulf because of the troughs but I don't know how sure that is. When a front comes through does that mean no more storms can track through or would the front have to retreat as a warm front? Sorry, I have very little knowledge in all of this.

For at least the next 2 weeks, the Gulf will be dominated by a very strong SW-NE jet core as cool air spills out over the Gulf behind several fronts, the strongest of which may arrive on the 11th of October. That meas SW-WSW flow aloft of 40-80 kts all across the Gulf during that period. Anything approaching the NW Caribbean would be turned sharply northeast. You're safe in Baton Rouge.

Take a look at the upper left panel on the GFS forecast for 10 days out from now. West wind at 50-60 kts at 200 mb all the way down to the Yucatan. Can't get a storm in the Gulf with those winds.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

Thanks for your info wxman57. Does the same hold true for Florida and the east coast? I would assume so since the "troughiness" will be in place for much of that period if not the rest of the season, right? It seems to me that anything coming out of the NW Carribean, ala 'nichole' would be shunted sharply NE at least and maybe even severely sheared?.

texas and probably the upper gulf coast closed for the rest of they year

[Vortex]

12Z GFS H 42 low S of PR


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

GFS takes it to Jamaica this run and heading west..

[Vortex]

noticed that aric..

[GCANE]

12Z BAM Medium and 12Z CMC have a recurve in the east Bahamas






http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps..FL straits



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Nogaps..FL straits



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

yeah I favor that over most of the others.. its in line with the GFS with the ridge holding,

[Vortex]

12Z GFS ensembles all over it once it gets further west into the carribean...

H120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Typhoon_Willie]

I guess I will have to keep on watching this then.

[Vortex]

noticed that aric..

[HURRICANELONNY]

12Z GFS ensembles all over it once it gets further west into the carribean...

H120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

12z makes no sense. It would have to head South for that to verify. Useless.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z GFS ensembles all over it once it gets further west into the carribean...

H120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

12z makes no sense. It would have to head South for that to verify. Useless.

no its develops the area near barbados.. the area farther east shows no signs of anything..

[HURRICANELONNY]

Does someone have the floater for whatever is suppose to develop. NHC is useless for invests.

[Aric Dunn]

Does someone have the floater for whatever is suppose to develop. NHC is useless for invests.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 16vis.html

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps has it sitting over the NW carribean in 6 days...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif