ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater, so now this system has becomed the primary one that the models latch to or still the wave just off the African Coast has support?

Luis, I was analyzing all the 00z model runs last night and the WRF model oddly enough shed light on what was going on. Both features merge into this system. It looks like 90L will pretty much stall before it starts lifting out (which is why we are seeing the SW motion on XTRAP), then the African wave catches up and then starts to wrap up.

Ok good. It will be facinating to watch how it all evolves.

[KWT]

These sorts of evolutions that Ivanhater pointed out tend to take a while to get going, something similar occured with Pre Alex and it took a good 3 days or so...it shouldn't take quite that long this time once the wave is in place but even so I don't think this one gets going too rapidly, despite what the SHIPS suggest.

[Aric Dunn]

just need a floater now..

[hurricaneCW]

And to think, we're in an unfavorable MJO right now. Once that becomes favorable, we could see a lot of African waves develop quickly.

[Riptide]

And to think, we're in an unfavorable MJO right now. Once that becomes favorable, we could see a lot of African waves develop quickly.

The MJO is less significant in ENSO-dominant years such as the moderate la nina that is going on this year. Don't get me wrong, it has an influence.

[hurricaneCW]

And to think, we're in an unfavorable MJO right now. Once that becomes favorable, we could see a lot of African waves develop quickly.

The MJO is less significant in ENSO-dominant years such as the moderate la nina that is going on this year. Don't get me wrong, it has an influence.

I know all about the MJO influence. I'm just saying that once it gets more favorable that it will enhance things even more. It's obviously not as important as it would be in an El Nino year, but it still has some influence.

[cycloneye]

Here comes what hyperactive seasons are all about, getting high ACE values. If this develops, it will get high or less ACE numbers depending on the track.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricane]

I thought I've seen a 100L before??

[Macrocane]

Who would've thought that the small trough that was barely mentioned earlier today in the TWD was going to be an invest before the tropical waves, the tropics are getting interesting it's time to be prepared for the worst, hope for the best and enjoy the evolutions of these systems.

[lester]

I thought I've seen a 100L before??

might've been from 2005

*drumrolls*

just kidding

[Weatherfreak000]

Might be about time to start questioning the two areas merging. It appears the tropical wave is STILL half inland and half out. I am really questioning whether or not this interaction is going to take place. The wave appears stationary.

[KWT]

Without a doubt its in the ITCZ right now, or at least the convection is being supported at the moment.

Going to be interesting to see when the system lifts out a little from the ITCZ, esp if it times it the same as when the wave comes along!

I've got a feeling we maybe looking at a very long 10-14 days with this system, probably got a good shot at a hurricane down the line if it does get going given upper conditions, though IMO shear could be an issue between say 55-65W.

[cheezyWXguy]

I thought I've seen a 100L before??

lol i donno, ive never seen one...

[cycloneye]

If I remember, Isabel started around this position maybe a little more north and was slow to develop. Hey,I am not saying it will be like what eventually Isabel turned into, only talking about the very early stages.

[johngaltfla]

long trackers are the best!
It will be interesting to see if this is Colon

I don't know about Colon, but maybe Colin!!!

Thank you for clearing the Colon thing up.

Well, here we go again gang. I was shocked to have 2 already but if we have 3 by August 1st, wow. Shades of 2005 all over again. And it doesn't look to be in that bad of a position to make most of the trip and intensify.

[johngaltfla]

I thought I've seen a 100L before??

Only as a test. it resets back to 90 after 99. The pros and hobbyists here have had great discussions on the subject somewhere on the board. This is an unreal development for July to see anything that far out, it really is. Let's hope if it does develop that it goes fishing and fast.

[Aric Dunn]

we are not going to see any major changes in the next 24 hours.. after which things should start changing..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This will be a very interesting long tracker to watch develop and see how systems can break away from the ICTZ, how the introduction of a vigorous wave interacts with established convection that may actually have its own rotation beforehand, and how the wax and wane of the ridge to the north affects the speed and direction of the system(s).

Long trackers are also good because they always have increased awareness by the public. Eventually they see at least 1 weather report and will see it on the map, hopefully long before its arrival.

[KWT]

we are not going to see any major changes in the next 24 hours.. after which things should start changing..

Yeah I agree, conditions look decent enough for now though there will probably remain some easterly shear for a little while yet until it gets a little further west and it gets to about 45-50W.

Cycloneye, I'm pretty sure we don't want an Isabel, though if it could get to cat-5 and recurve, well yeah that'd be good!