WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[StormingB81]

It is still there..it is moving NW..NOAA has it as a high probabilty to form into something.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It seems gone, or maybe it moved NW.

It looks very good this morning, it certainly hasn't gone! Check out the sat images here - http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB

[dexterlabio]

So it's the one moving NW? Now it seems to be a concern for Okinawa-Taiwan people, if it develops further.

[supercane]

Vis:


IR:


Microwave:

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.8N 139.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION EVIDENT AT MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A DIVERGENT ZONE JUST NORTHWEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[StormingB81]

98W starting to get its act together....

[supercane]

Consolidating nicely:
IR:

Microwave:

[Infdidoll]

JTWC concurs...It is looking better.

ABPW10 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281430Z-290600ZAUG2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZAUG2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.0N 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.8N
127.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8N
139.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
DIVERGENT ZONE JUST NORTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE. THIS FEATURE HAS
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO ITS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
FAIR.//
NNNN

[supercane]

TCFA issued:
WTPN21 PGTW 281930
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 138.9E TO 23.6N 133.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 138.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
139.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 705 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH MUCH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281706Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE
CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. BASED ON THIS
IMAGE, THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS IMMINENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE LLCC. THIS HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291930Z.//
NNNN

JMA 12Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 16N 137E NW 15 KT.

[supercane]

JMA 18Z analysis now also has 98W as a TD:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 20N 138E NW 15 KT.

Apparently JMA doesn't think it will strengthen to a TD in 24hr, because no advisories have yet been issued.

[StormingB81]

wow! This looks really good this morning

[StormingB81]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 20N 138E NW 15 KT.

JMA has it as a Tropical Depression now.

[senorpepr]

152
TPPN11 PGTW 282147

A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 28/2032Z

C. 20.7N

D. 137.2E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1706Z 19.3N 138.4E MMHS
28/1711Z 19.4N 138.2E MMHS


ROSS

[StormingB81]

Wow straight to Tropical Storm. WHat a diffference from when I went to bed

[supercane]

Interesting that it's being referred to as TS 08W. Don't see any advisories out from JTWC yet. T numbers are high enough for an upgrade:

28/2032 UTC 19.7N 137.0E T2.5/2.5 98W -- West Pacific

TXPN22 KNES 282120
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 28/2032Z
C. 19.7N
D. 137.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON PT. AT LEAST 4 TENTHS OF WHITE BANDING SUGGESTS
A DT=3.0 IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS POSITIONED UNDER
RIDGING WHICH IS AIDING IT'S UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE EXPAND AND DEVELOP.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...BALDWIN

[supercane]

Microwave appearance improved, with banding present:

[StormingB81]

It is on NRL now. Wow If its true and this thing is already TS status that quick we may have to keep a close eye on it

[supercane]

Advisory finally popped up for TS 08W on noaa.gov (still not on JTWC page)

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.4N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.9N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.4N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.8N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 34.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 137.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 281711Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE LATEST KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATE AT 282030Z IS AT 45 KNOTS. THE 28/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER JAPAN
IS STRENGTHENING (+70 METERS PAST 24 HOURS) AND BUILDING WESTWARD
AS THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA WEAKENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT TRACK DEPICTS A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AT 13-14 KNOTS SOA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND ANOTHER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AFTER TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY LIMITED AND POOR AT THIS TIME. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 281921Z AUG 10 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 281930). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[StormingB81]

I wish they had a map so I can see how close to OKinawa they are forecasting it to be

[supercane]

TS 08W (or JMA TD) looks good on morning vis: