WPAC: Ex-Severe Tropical Storm MALOU (1009/10W)

[StormingB81]

FROM JTWC

WTPN33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 139.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.8N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 28.9N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 139.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 011935Z SSMI AND 011655Z AMSR-E IMAGES DEPICTED
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
25 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, BASED ON THE WEAK SIGNATURE. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED (GFS, NOGAPS, WBAR) PLUS UKMO
FIELDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER JAPAN THROUGH
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 96, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTH OF
THE KOREAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE YELLOW SEA. THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT IMPROVING
OUTFLOW AFTER THIS TIME WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96-120. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 011451Z SEP 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 011500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Now they say 42 NM North of Kadena. Ill wait 3 more forecast because I never look at the original forcast.

[supercane]

18Z JMA:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 16.3N 139.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Forecast graphic:


Current vis:


Current microwave:


Dvorak a little low for a TD:
TPPN13 PGTW 020025
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 01/2332Z
C. 18.3N
D. 138.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/20HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 012329
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102010
925 AM CHST THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.4
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 550
MILES NORTH OF YAP.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPESSION 10W SHOULD
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 139.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 PM CHST.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[StormingB81]

They predict a Tropical Storm by Friday Like I said I wanna see how much this path changes by tomorrow morning and then see how my weekend maybe effected.


30 Knots already I was just looking at that. This could be a tropical storm by tonight.

[StormingB81]

New advisory is out putting it right over Okinawa as a CAT 1 Typhoon!

[supercane]

JMA 00Z position (no advisories out yet):
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 16.4N 138.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WTPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.9N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.6N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.2N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 137.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 07W (LIONROCK) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW). REFER
TO TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[StormingB81]

This one will be closer just because it is the holiday weekend and ruin all the plans I can see it now...

[supercane]

WDPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W/
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012217Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THIS IMAGE WITH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER JAPAN. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED (GFS, NOGAPS, WBAR) PLUS UKMO
FIELDS. THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS BY TAU 72. PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER UPWELLED BY
TY 08W MAY ALSO HELP LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 96, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTH OF
THE KOREAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE YELLOW SEA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120.//

[supercane]

Dvorak estimate from KNES unsure if a circulation exists. Maybe JTWC jumped the gun on this?

TXPN25 KNES 020321
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B. 02/0232Z
C. 18.5N
D. 137.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...NOT CONVINCED THERE IS A LLC TO BE FOUND WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MAY HAVE BEEN SHEARED OUT AS PART OF NE ARM OR BAND OF DEVELOPING
MONSOON GYRE THAT IS CENTERED AROUND 17.5N 130E...IF THERE IS IT HAS
A VERY SMALL ENVELOP PARTICULARLY NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS ON
SW HEMISPHERE. STILL THERE IS SOME BANDING WITH A CSC OR MLC AT GIVEN
LOCATION THAT WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 1.5. FT
BASED ON CONSENSUS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=

[StormingB81]

Well JMA also has it as a tropical Depression along with Wunderground and NWS Guam so we shall see.

[supercane]

Yes, JMA is a different agency supporting TD intensity. However, neither NWS Guam or Weather Underground are independent forecast agencies. NWS Guam gets its information from JTWC, and Weather Underground is a commercial entity that also gets its information from NWS or JTWC. ASCAT also supports the interpretation given the above KNES Dvorak estimate that there is not a well-organized LLCC and more an extension of the monsoon trough, which could develop more later but looks pretty disorganized now.

[StormingB81]

Thank you for the explanation.

[Chacor]

Actually, on that point, I had an email conversation with Roger Edson of NWS Guam a few years ago, when NWS Guam disagreed with the JTWC on one storm, TS Rumbia in 2006. I'll quote the relevant part of his email in the next post.

[StormingB81]

Well I am wondering SINCE we are coming up on a long Holiday wekend and TCCOR 3 states 48 hours out. If AS A PERCAUTION and seeing how Kadena goes off JTWC if they will put us in TCCOR 3 tonight and see what happends tomorrow so the steps are taken JUST IN CASE. As we saw the last one turn at the last minute this one could be close enough where it can do the same thing right at us.

[Chacor]

Roger Edson, NWS Guam, 2006, on TS Rumbia: "Although (99% of the time) we follow the JTWC warning, we are not required to do so if we feel that our product needs to be altered slightly in order to best meet our customers goals. In fact, the legal documents that we follow such as the NWS Instruction (10-601) was changed a couple of years ago to state: "In the western Pacific, WFO Guam will issue public advisories _*generally*_ based on the tropical cyclone bulletins of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for all tropical cyclones expected to affect land within 48 hours." I think that you will find that if there ever is a change it would normally be for the initial analysis and near term forecast period as we are not a specialized typhoon warning agency and do not have all of the resources that the JTWC has."

[StormingB81]

Acually if you look now....NWS Guams track is North of JTWC's track. JTWC has it making landfall on Okinawa while NWS Guam has it going north of Okinawa

[supercane]

StormingB81, looks like the same forecast points to me; any differences are likely related to map resolution. Chacor, interesting e-mail. Can't say I remember that particular storm. Also interesting how one little word makes a difference. I looked at this year's version of the directive, which states "In the western Pacific, WFO Guam will issue public advisories using Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast products as guidance for all tropical cyclones within their Area of Responsibility (AOR) from 130°E to 180° between the Equator and 25°N." This wording may give them more discretionary latitude.

[supercane]

TPPN13 PGTW 020610
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 02/0532Z
C. 19.8N
D. 136.8E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0054Z 18.5N 138.3E MMHS
UEHARA

[StormingB81]

ANyone have the new advisory Map..wundermap shows a tropical storm here now. But like I said I bet you it changes 4 more times before it gets up here

[dexterlabio]

One storm after another for Okinawa-Kadena area. Scary.