ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[expat2carib]

[cycloneye]

This factor may be way SHIP goes bonkers on intensity.

[jlauderdal]

It's going to be unfortunate for Mexico, they've been gettiing battered this season and this one could end up being really powerful. It's going to be tapping into the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin, who knows how strong it could get. It's intensity may eventually allow for a more northward track but the ridge across the gulf states is in no hurry to leave. The U.S. chances of being hit will probably go way up by late September into October when the troughs are strong enough to finally break down the gulf states ridge.

The storm I fear the most is an Opal like storm, which is a real possibility this season.

battered is a bit on the strong side dont ya think?

[KWT]

This looks alot like Gustav did at this same point, if you look back at the Gustav threat and page 33 I believe you can see the image Hurakan uploaded which shows where pre-Gustav was at the same time.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I imagine its more of a localized t'storm effect. but it appears we have a weak closed wind field. there is a ENE wind at Barbados and a west wind in Trinidad

just put the wind over lays on..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[SFLcane]

Upper pattern says into mexico.

[KWT]

I agree Aric and its pretty unusual to have west winds down that far south without some sort of circulation at this time of the year.

Cycloneye, thats impressive though it obviously means nothing if the upper conditions don't help out...in this case though I think there will be enough support for a strengthening system.

SFLcane, very true but lets keep an eye on this, its only just at 60W and this is going to be with us for the next 7-10 days at least.

[cycloneye]

Sandy, now floater #2 is in the right place. Remember yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

In no hurry to move, that could be horrible if conditions are favorable.

Luis, now it's right!

[srainhoutx]

Rather impressed with organization over night. No real surprise the NHC chose to declare an invest this morning. Another area virtually untouched this season. It should be an interesting 8-10 days to say the least.

[eastcoastFL]

Without having a clear circulation so far the models are not very accurate with guidance. I would say that everyone from south texas to miami should keep an eye on this. If it doesnt develop right away and just drifts to the north it could take it of to the east or right into the islands. My big concern would be haiti.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

In no hurry to move, that could be horrible if conditions are favorable.

Luis, now it's right!

Yeah the models suggest this one won't be moving very far in the next 48-72hrs.

The only thing I'll say is that map looks like it takes the system a little to ofar to the south, I'd imagine it'd pick up at least some latitude before then.

[Sanibel]

Maybe this one will do what we expected the Gaston remnant to do.

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe this one will do what we expected the Gaston remnant to do.

What was that?

[KWT]

The only thing that worries me Sanibel is the low level of instablity thats to the north of the system at the moment which has held back Gaston but we will see, I've got a feeling this one will be a Caribbean hurricane to be honest, esp given the amount of time it'll have over the warm basin waters.

[Sanibel]

What was that?

There's a lot of untapped potential there from the sun baking the Caribbean all season. Some of us were saying that all the attention being drawn by the recurvers might be countered by a Caribbean storm.

I'm surprised this developed with the Gaston remnants having such a hard time. It was probably aided by the South American ITCZ. To me the rule of thumb here is Hermine started with "juicy" convection and was showing signs of strong development and this one is also starting with juicy convection. It came from what was almost a scattered monsoon trough. Perhaps it is timed with the return of the MJO positive phase?

It's noticeably humid here in south Florida today. This is a change from the drier air we've been having. And the SE trades are finally in place giving us daily afternoon showers.

[eastcoastFL]

Thanks for the input! You are not kidding, its hot as hell today in south florida.

[StormTracker]

LOL, it's hot as hell everyday in my part of S. Fla!
Now, back on topic!

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

You can really see the inflow setting up ... and a bunch of outflow boundaries from the line of storms coming off the coast.