WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looking a lot more organized now...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Official warning, looks like it will end up getting picked up by the trough over japan moving in the N PAC

[Iceperple]

Besides it's position,sure it will effect Alaska(could still be an TC？ )

[RobWESTPACWX]

There is a upper level trough coming down, if the storm gets wrapped up in that it could head NE towards the Aleutian low in the long term. Good note!

[dexterlabio]

ECM shows this cyclone merging with the trough then making a strong extratropical system marching towards the northeast.

[KWT]

Sure looks like a developing system right now and won't take too long to become a TS I suspect.

Should recurve away from Japan but it all adds to the ACE I suppose!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well I guess technically it may make landfall over Japan, Iwo To is a japanese island.....

Thats just being a stickler though.

[supercane]

JMA 06Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 18N 147E WNW 10 KT.

JTWC 09Z analysis:
WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251Z SEP 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.3N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.5N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.5N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.6N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 39.4N 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 145.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205
NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 200532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A
200335Z 36 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS INDICATING CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS INCREASED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. TD 13W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, HOWEVER, GFS WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SOONER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD IN THE INITIAL TAUS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 200251Z SEP 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



NWS Guam:

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 200938
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132010
8 PM CHST MON SEP 20 2010

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W OVER NORTHERN CNMI...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
270 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
60 MILES NORTH OF PAGAN AND
20 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...19.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
145.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH NEAR THE CENTER.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

Latest Dvoraks:

TPPN11 PGTW 201226
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (VICINITY MARIANAS)
B. 20/1132Z
C. 18.8N
D. 145.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDING 2.0 DT. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/0756Z 19.3N 145.6E SSMS
20/0904Z 19.0N 145.8E SSMS
BRANDON

NWS Guam:


000
WTPQ32 PGUM 200938
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132010
8 PM CHST MON SEP 20 2010

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W OVER NORTHERN CNMI...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
270 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
60 MILES NORTH OF PAGAN AND
20 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...19.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
145.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH NEAR THE CENTER.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

TXPN28 KNES 200922
SIMWIR
A. 13W (NONAME)
B. 20/0832Z
C. 18.0N
D. 146.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 BASED ON .5 DEGREES WHITE BANDING. MET AND PT
ARE 2.0. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=

[KWT]

Well I guess technically it may make landfall over Japan, Iwo To is a japanese island.....

Thats just being a stickler though.

Haha yeah thats true I suppose, still mainland Japan is probably not going to have a large threat from this unless the set-up changes quite abit from the expected set-up.

[supercane]

JTWC 15Z advisory out:
WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.0N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.7N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 32.1N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 38.0N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 145.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225
NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[KWT]

A little stronger on this forecast, now expected to get upto 65kts as it starts to recurve out to the NE.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just posted a Video at my site on this storm, plus some wrap us with Fanapi, very interesting storm. But to be honest with you I much rather track systems like 13W that just create a lot of waves out in the ocean.

[Macrocane]

The latest JTWC warning makes this a 95 kt typhoon, if it intensifies a little more than expected it could be the 3rd major of the season:

WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.1N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.5N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.0N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 40.3N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 144.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A 201732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 201546Z AMSR-E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TS 13W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE CURRENT STEERING REGIME PERSISTS.
THEREAFTER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 120, TS 13W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REORIENTS AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RELAX. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ENABLE MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE CYCLONE
WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
PROVIDE A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. THIS FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IN
ANTICIPATION OF A MORE MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
NECESSITATED INCREASING THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12W (FANAPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM.//
NNNN

[blazess556]

Are they going to fly into this as part of ITOP?

[supercane]

Not for a few days. Focus today appears to be Fanapi's cold wake. From yesterday's ITOP discussion:

ITOP_2010 Operations Plan of the Day

Date of report(UTC): 2010/09/20 06:03
Author of report: Pat Harr
Submitted at: 2010/09/20 06:15
Operations Summary:
The second cold wake mission is being flown. image1 Three buoy lines are being put out in a near north-south orientation that crosses the wake region. Following the deployment of buoys, a path was flown over the cold water region that is located along the storm track where the storm moved slowly. AXBTs and Dropsondes will be deployed over the cold water region. The flight is a shortened version of what was planned due to delays in take off.
The schedule for the next three days will be a down day, then the third wake flight followed by a possible deployment mission into ITOPO22.

[Chacor]

JMA now issuing full bulletins.

Re ITOP, I'd assume they would.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 17.9N 145.1E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 20.4N 141.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.1N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.5N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.0N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 40.3N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 144.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A 201732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 201546Z AMSR-E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TS 13W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE CURRENT STEERING REGIME PERSISTS.
THEREAFTER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 120, TS 13W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REORIENTS AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RELAX. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ENABLE MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE CYCLONE
WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
PROVIDE A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. THIS FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IN
ANTICIPATION OF A MORE MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
NECESSITATED INCREASING THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12W (FANAPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. A 201142Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THIS TRMM PASS AND A
201132Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM, AND INCREASED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY
A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO REBUILD WESTWARD AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO TURN POLEWARD
AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
THE STR NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TD 13W WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ENHANCED OUTFLOW).
C. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO ATTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72,
BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD SOONER DUE TO
EXCESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE STR BY THE INITIAL MID-LATITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. IN THE LATER TAUS, NOGAPS AND ECMWF RECURVE THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN



TXPN28 KNES 202108
SIMWIR
A. 13W (NONAME)
B. 20/2032Z
C. 17.5N
D. 145.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON DT WITH 5-6 TENTHS BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE.
SYSTEM CENTER REPOSITIONED BASED ON RECENT AMSRE TROUGH AXIS, AND
CURVATURE OF BANDING AS SEEN IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1546Z 18.9N 145.3E AMSRE
...BALDWIN
=

[supercane]

Latest Dvoraks--still 1.5 from JMA, while upgrade to TS by JTWC possible with Dvorak from both KNES and PGTW at 2.5.

404
TCNA21 RJTD 210000
CCAA 21000 47644 NAMELESS 15175 11457 14296 215// 92203=

TPPN11 PGTW 210010
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (N OF GUAM)
B. 20/2332Z
C. 18.2N
D. 145.3E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/1942Z 19.1N 145.1E SSMI
20/2030Z 19.6N 145.2E SSMS
20/2138Z 18.9N 145.1E SSMS
UEHARA

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 17.8N 145.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 19.0N 143.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



BTW, next name on the list is Malakas meaning strong; powerful and contributed by the Philippines.

[Macrocane]

The JMA is very slow to name the systems most of the times, IMO it looks good enough to be declared a TS.