ATL: IGOR - Models

[Hurricaneman]

the 0z euro for this hurricane is quite interesting

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[bob rulz]

We also have to remember that the Euro had a doomsday scenario for Florida with Fiona while all of the other models had it recurving in the shadow of Earl and staying weak, and we all know what happened there.

The Euro may be the "most reliable" but it's definitely not the be-all, end-all of models.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, let's see, over a week out and it gets (the Euro) Igor to roughly 71W and 32N just 24 hours after showing Igor at 60W and 35N. That's an 11 degree west jump in longitude in 24 hours. Not to mention that the forecast is for 192 hours from now. Let's just say for the sake of argument that the ECMWF adds another 6 degrees of longitude between now and one week from tonight to this run. I believe a lot of people would be quite concerned about that.

As far as what happened with Fiona, it has been my observations over the years that once the Euro has locked in on a hurricane, it does a really good job from there on out. Fiona never was a hurricane for the Euro to lock in on and we saw the resulting fantasy that it kept spitting out.

This shift west makes sense- we are getting later in to the season with higher pressures building over the NW Atlantic. The pattern looks to shift in to even higher pressures as we get towards the end of the month so if this is what the Euro is predicting for 192 hours out based on tonight's data- I can only imagine what it will be predicting in 72 hours.

These are just my thoughts and not any kind of forecast- it could all shift back east by the 12Z run tomorrow, allowing us all a collective "phew" until the next swing back west

[KWT]

ECM is quite some ways west of the GFS which keeps on curving it out near 65W and coming very near Bermuda. We will see what happens in that respect but I fully expect the westward shift to continue...

The CMC looks broadly similar to the ECM with it reaching about 70W before curving out and it seems realistic enough for now...

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

561
WHXX01 KWBC 121235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100912 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100912  1200   100913  0000   100913  1200   100914  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  44.9W   18.7N  47.2W   19.6N  49.9W   20.1N  52.7W
BAMD    17.7N  44.9W   18.2N  47.1W   18.8N  49.1W   19.7N  50.9W
BAMM    17.7N  44.9W   18.4N  47.2W   19.0N  49.5W   19.5N  51.5W
LBAR    17.7N  44.9W   18.4N  47.2W   18.9N  49.5W   19.7N  51.8W
SHIP        85KTS          96KTS         106KTS         113KTS
DSHP        85KTS          96KTS         106KTS         113KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100914  1200   100915  1200   100916  1200   100917  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.2N  55.1W   20.6N  57.5W   23.2N  58.5W   26.8N  61.6W
BAMD    20.5N  52.7W   22.5N  56.2W   24.8N  59.2W   27.6N  62.3W
BAMM    19.9N  53.3W   21.7N  55.6W   24.7N  58.3W   27.7N  61.9W
LBAR    20.5N  54.2W   22.1N  58.0W   24.7N  61.4W   27.9N  63.6W
SHIP       119KTS         130KTS         131KTS         122KTS
DSHP       119KTS         130KTS         131KTS         122KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.7N LONCUR =  44.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  17.6N LONM12 =  41.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  17.3N LONM24 =  38.7W
WNDCUR =   85KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   65KT
CENPRS =  975MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   80NM RD34SW =   80NM RD34NW = 120NM


[CrazyC83]

SHIPS gives it a serious run at Cat 5 as well...

[KWT]

Its exceptionally rare to get a cat-5 out in the Central Atlantic, I think ther ehave been 3 and all came in the 50s and I think may have justified by recon, which often way overdid winds in the 50s and early 60s of some storms...but then again who knows it does have good conditions aloft!

Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...

[brunota2003]

Yeah, I don't think Isabel would be too happy if you left her out. Igor is starting to look a little like Isabel, too...reincarnation on our hands? Or has Isabel just been giving Igor some beauty tips from ghost land?

[hurricaneCW]

Its exceptionally rare to get a cat-5 out in the Central Atlantic, I think ther ehave been 3 and all came in the 50s and I think may have justified by recon, which often way overdid winds in the 50s and early 60s of some storms...but then again who knows it does have good conditions aloft!

Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...

Why are they so rare? Is it mostly because the water temperatures are not warm enough, too much dry air, shear? Obviously there is no gulf stream to really ramp up a storm like with Katrina or Rita.

[CrazyC83]

Its exceptionally rare to get a cat-5 out in the Central Atlantic, I think ther ehave been 3 and all came in the 50s and I think may have justified by recon, which often way overdid winds in the 50s and early 60s of some storms...but then again who knows it does have good conditions aloft!

Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...

Why are they so rare? Is it mostly because the water temperatures are not warm enough, too much dry air, shear? Obviously there is no gulf stream to really ramp up a storm like with Katrina or Rita.

Combination of all the factors I believe.

[shah8]

12z cmc is sit-down scary.

[BigA]

12z cmc is sit-down scary.

12Z Canadian: "I'll take the rebuilt subtropical ridge for 150(mph), Alex."

Yeah, that is a scary solution. I'm eager to see how HWRF, GFDL, UKMET and ECMWF weigh in.

[Riptide]

12z cmc is sit-down scary.

12Z Canadian: "I'll take the rebuilt subtropical ridge for 150(mph), Alex."

Yeah, that is a scary solution. I'm eager to see how HWRF, GFDL, UKMET and ECMWF weigh in.

Is the post-hr144 graphic available?

[BigA]

12z cmc is sit-down scary.

12Z Canadian: "I'll take the rebuilt subtropical ridge for 150(mph), Alex."

Yeah, that is a scary solution. I'm eager to see how HWRF, GFDL, UKMET and ECMWF weigh in.

Is the post-hr144 graphic available?

I don't think for the 12Z run, but I could be wrong.

[Vortex]

Outlier but wow!



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

The only other model I think might do a similar solution would be the nogaps come the 00z. it has consistently been farther south and more west every run. although it recurves it ... it does build a stronger ridge to the north filing the gap some. The reason I think it might eventually switch to a more west track is simply because it has a un-realistic right angle turn very near the islands which is where the CMC turns it back wnw rather than recurve. could be interesting... there are just so many factors still at play if 92L gets stronger than it may push on the eastern US ridge forcing/ squeezing it farther east over the western atlantic which could flatten out the trough and keep the 500mb ridge more in place. similar to the CMC.

[CrazyC83]

I don't think the CMC is that much off personally, it has been trending west...

[Aric Dunn]

The only other model I think might do a similar solution would be the nogaps come the 00z. it has consistently been farther south and more west every run. although it recurves it ... it does build a stronger ridge to the north filing the gap some. The reason I think it might eventually switch to a more west track is simply because it has a un-realistic right angle turn very near the islands which is where the CMC turns it back wnw rather than recurve. could be interesting... there are just so many factors still at play if 92L gets stronger than it may push on the eastern US ridge forcing/ squeezing it farther east over the western atlantic which could flatten out the trough and keep the 500mb ridge more in place. similar to the CMC.

Actually the 12Z nogaps does bend it WNW again not as early as the CMC since the Nogaps is faster initially but still is a interesting couple runs. The Nogaps rather scary for NE.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical