ATL: IGOR - Models

[SFLcane]

:eek: Outlier but wow!



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yea anything is possible but i doupt it verifies.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF

might be a slight wnw bend at 126 hours .. hard to tell though..

[hurricaneCW]

Although unlikely, the CMC run is a possibility. I do think the models will shift further west in time, the situation is very EARly up to now, except the storm is a bit further north than Earl was at this time. The subtropical ridge with Earl was stronger and extended past 60W, this time it's weaker and goes out to about 55W, but the ridging that builds in is a lot stronger than when Earl had a strong trough heading toward the east coast.

I'm 80% confident that Igor recurves between 60-65W. I'd say a 10% chance of a curve between 65-70W, a 5% chance of a curve/maybe eastern NE, Canada landfall/brush as it curves between 70-75W, and a U.S. landfall west of 75W about 5% chance.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah looks like a bit of a WNW turn at the end of the run... \
HWRF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL bends wnw too now..

[brunota2003]

:eek: Outlier but wow!



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Looking at that, the system starts heading west the last couple of frames. Now, there is a weakness poised to come offshore at the end, but I think it would be too late to keep Igor from at least brushing the east coast, and that particular hit would most likely be worse than Earl.

[brunota2003]

yeah looks like a bit of a WNW turn at the end of the run... \
HWRF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Yeah, but despite a pressure dropping to 941.8 millibars, that never takes him above 100 knots.

[Vortex]

GFDL turns west at the end...big differences with the ukmet/canadian versus the gfs/gfdl...The benchmark 20/60 will be very important...Anything inside 20/60 will head towards the bahamas with a possible se/ecoast threat...

[Vortex]

At times very powerful storms can create their own environment and often the track their on carries that momentum and hard turns are less likely...

[hurricaneCW]

So did the models trend further west or not. I know the gfs has been pretty consistent recurving around 65W.

[SFLcane]

So did the models trend further west or not. I know the gfs has been pretty consistent recurving around 65W.

Dont really see any westward trends on the 12z plots. Next canadian will probably shift northward.

[KWT]

Models IMO will trend west a little but I'd be very surprised if it gets much beyond 70W, only if the CMC solution comes off with the system getting further west to start with will there be a threat...still it can happen so lets wait and see!

[rockyman]

12z Euro..check out the 907mb pressure!:

[KWT]

ECM suggests a hurricane equal to Isabel in that location. Whilst it overdid Earl at times it can't be denied that it did well overall in making Earl a powerful hurricane and given Igor already is a potent hurricane its not out of the question at all!

[CrazyC83]

12z Euro..check out the 907mb pressure!:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

With a storm that size and strong, the IKE would be off the charts...




*edited by sg to remove IMG tags

[hurricaneCW]

That looks kind of close to the U.S.

[brunota2003]

I'm wondering what the models will do once they are told Igor is a Cat 4 now. The HWRF didn't even bring Igor above 100 knots, and Igor is sitting at 115 knots right now.

[Buck]

Wow, 907!

[CrazyC83]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 121838
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100912 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100912 1800 100913 0600 100913 1800 100914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 46.3W 18.3N 48.5W 18.7N 50.9W 19.0N 53.0W
BAMD 17.7N 46.3W 17.9N 48.4W 18.3N 50.3W 18.9N 51.8W
BAMM 17.7N 46.3W 18.0N 48.5W 18.4N 50.4W 18.9N 51.8W
LBAR 17.7N 46.3W 18.0N 48.5W 18.4N 50.9W 19.0N 53.2W
SHIP 115KTS 126KTS 126KTS 129KTS
DSHP 115KTS 126KTS 126KTS 129KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100914 1800 100915 1800 100916 1800 100917 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 54.5W 21.7N 56.4W 24.9N 59.5W 26.8N 63.3W
BAMD 20.0N 53.2W 22.6N 56.0W 25.9N 59.1W 28.8N 64.2W
BAMM 19.9N 53.2W 22.6N 55.9W 25.3N 59.4W 27.2N 63.3W
LBAR 19.7N 55.5W 21.3N 59.5W 24.1N 63.0W 27.8N 65.4W
SHIP 131KTS 135KTS 126KTS 118KTS
DSHP 131KTS 135KTS 126KTS 118KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 46.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 43.8W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 40.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 130NM

$$
NNNN

[Ivanhater]

Canadian has a set up of hitting the SE coast and several Euro ensembles have it hitting the SE coast as well.