ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[littlevince]

12 hours loop






Higher resolution loop (but only east side)
I noticed what seems a small vortex NE of the blob.
Probably just temporary turbulence from thunderstorms .

[KWT]

Yeah that vortex is quite obvious, its a little to the east of the NHC location currently but if it can lift out from the ITCZ then thats certainly the area to watch...

This whole wave/blob interaction thing makes my head hurt!

[brunota2003]

It seems toward the end that the "vortex" had some convection starting to blow up over it.

[cheezyWXguy]

The thing that continues to grab my interest when I watch those loops is that inflow channel just north of the swirl that seems to connect it with the tropical wave behind it.

[Aric Dunn]

floater finally..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[StormClouds63]

Looks like an Ivan or Emily path here in the very early going ... if it strengthens, however, track will turn more toward the northwest, IMO.

At least we have something to track after poor Bonnie lost out to the shear monster. Speaking of which, what do the shear charts show for the central and western Atlantic?

[Nimbus]

Judging from the early models they are expecting a TUTT to pull 90l north. That would be great if it got taken out by wind shear like Bonnie did.

Its hard to say where this area will roll up and decouple from the ITCZ. The Sooner it spins up the more time it will have effected by the deeper steering of the TUTT. Might be a fish but we often see early model runs that are too far right with the track.

[Aric Dunn]

it is pretty hard to deny there is some pretty good curvature with it and a decent mid level rotation... its only issue is it being attached to the ITCZ.. the large wave will help pull it away from the itcz when they begin to interact and merge..

[fci]

long trackers are the best!
It will be interesting to see if this is Colon

I don't know about Colon, but maybe Colin!!!

Thank you for clearing the Colon thing up.

Well, here we go again gang. I was shocked to have 2 already but if we have 3 by August 1st, wow. Shades of 2005 all over again. And it doesn't look to be in that bad of a position to make most of the trip and intensify.

Given where 90L is, I don't see any upgrade during the last 3 days of July so we will end up with 2 named systems in July.

[KWT]

Judging from the early models they are expecting a TUTT to pull 90l north. That would be great if it got taken out by wind shear like Bonnie did.

Its hard to say where this area will roll up and decouple from the ITCZ. The Sooner it spins up the more time it will have effected by the deeper steering of the TUTT. Might be a fish but we often see early model runs that are too far right with the track.

Any TUTT is a long long way away still and whilst I can see why they call that, I really wouldn't put any faith in the models, they are all pretty poor with these features, I suppose it is quite complex afterall!

As for a fish, lets just remember its a good bit south of 10N right now, its an awful long way to come up with a strong La Nina enhanced upper high feature....but your right its certainly too early to tell thats for sure.

Aric, yeah I totally agree with you.

[Sanibel]

D-Min. Could still poof.

[cycloneye]

First SSD T Numbers:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

29/1745 UTC 7.6N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic

[Ivanhater]

Low initialized on the Surface map

[KWT]

That wave is way behind this feature, this system really is going to have to stop for a few days if that wave is to catch it up, possible I suppose given this is mainly ITCZ energy at the moment flaring up...

The ECM on its 12z run suggests shear increases to the north of the Caribbean past 144hrs as a ULL drops slowly SW through the Central Atlantic FWIW.

[Weatherfreak000]

I am wondering if the TW is moving eastward back into the African Coast....what an odd wave that is.


Could definitely still poof.

[cycloneye]

The 850mb vorticity is increasing slowly.

[Ivanhater]

HPC's take

FOR THE TROPICS...A QUARTET OF SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST...WITH TWO IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND TWO IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY...TPC AND HPC POINTS WERE QUITE SIMILAR AND A
COMPROMISE WAS AGREED TO WHERE MODERATE DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN.
THE CPC ANALOG COMPOSITE FOR THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
LINKS TO TEN DATES AS THE BEST MATCH TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN...AND
OF THOSE DATES...SIX CONTAINED A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...FOUR OF WHICH WERE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WHERE THE WAVE NEAR 17 WEST LONGITUDE THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO END UP BY NEXT THURSDAY.

ROTH/HEDGE

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps i'm back after 4 days with big troubles with my Internet...
I'm suprised to see that we have this pertubed area pretty south in latitude. Something to keep an eye on during the next couple of days...

[Blown Away]

That wave is way behind this feature, this system really is going to have to stop for a few days if that wave is to catch it up, possible I suppose given this is mainly ITCZ energy at the moment flaring up...

The ECM on its 12z run suggests shear increases to the north of the Caribbean past 144hrs as a ULL drops slowly SW through the Central Atlantic FWIW.

If 90L takes a path towards the NE Caribbean or just N of that area that ULL may be far enough away not to shear 90L?? I can't tell.

[alienstorm]

I lot of things can change between now and then...