ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

The problem is when we have the same conversation every day. If you think it is going to be an inactive season, that is fine, but we don't need to hear about it every hour. This is not directed at anyone in particular.
Back to models..

okay, I promise I won't mention anything about it anymore for the rest of the year.

[lonelymike]

The problem is when we have the same conversation every day. If you think it is going to be an inactive season, that is fine, but we don't need to hear about it every hour. This is not directed at anyone in particular.
Back to models..

okay, I promise I won't mention anything about it anymore for the rest of the year.

No keep on posting your thoughts. Seems like everytime mentions they don't think this season is going to be as active as predicted they get jumped on by a select few people. I don't recall you ever insulting anybody so please keep on posting your thoughts. They're as valid as anyone elses around here.

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM

[Steve]

Hey Convergence Zone, I agree with weatherfreak. You're a good poster that earned his respect. I didn't mean to imply you directly, I was just responding to the point. As to the other point:

>>Then how can you say its the year of tropical storms? There's been 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms...I dont see why this is so weird. You can believe all you want that this year will be full of weak ones, but it only takes one to really turn things around and I have a feeling you're going to get caught with your guard down.

I don't think I said that, or if I did, I didn't mean to. What I intended to say was that because it's going to be a high number, western basin year (upper teens per CSU, Bastardi, NOAA) that implies that there will be a large number of tropical storms.

I didn't give a number, but I would suggest that I think Bastardi is low on his number of US, TS impacts and maybe high with his 5 H (2 IH) US Impacts. But it should be clear as a bell by now where we're heading. And if we are to trust the experts with various analogs including 1969, 1998, 2005, 2004, etc., then we can look to a blend and throw out an educated guess based on where we are.

Even though Joe B says it's most like 2005 (as of 8/5/10), there are some stark differences as well - particularly the way high pressure is reinforcing the Atlantic High from the US and Canadian coast. In 2005, almost all of the highs were riding up and over and coming down around +/- North Carolina. And some of the water temperature profiles are different.

One last thing. Expect a strong front to come down over the next month that someone is going to call the death knell of the Gulf season only to be shocked when they realize that it's what ushers it in. This happened in 2005 and in 2008 (2 often referenced, recent analogs.)

Hey, I could be wrong. But if 94L does make it to a depression or storm, it is in line with part of what I'm saying the season is showing - namely, with increased activity and a western bias, there should be multiple weaker or tropical storm impacts. In New Orleans, we've had +/- depression weather from Bonnie's remnants (3-6am) and from 95L.

Edit to also say what I'm not implying is that there won't be any hurricane or major hurricane threats - there likely will be some in addition to multiple TS threats.

[KWT]

ECM looks a pretty decent run for what I think is likely to occur, the one thing that could happen if the models are overdoing any troughing, is the system could end up stalling near the Gulf Coast. Not sure if thats a likely outcome but its one I suppose to just watch, in case....

[cheezyWXguy]

>>Then how can you say its the year of tropical storms? There's been 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms...I dont see why this is so weird. You can believe all you want that this year will be full of weak ones, but it only takes one to really turn things around and I have a feeling you're going to get caught with your guard down.

I don't think I said that, or if I did, I didn't mean to. What I intended to say was that because it's going to be a high number, western basin year (upper teens per CSU, Bastardi, NOAA) that implies that there will be a large number of tropical storms.

No i was replying to convergence zone, not you. I was actually agreeing with you.

[Steve]

It's all good Cheezy. I just didn't want it to seem like I was saying there would (should) be multiple tropical storm impacts on the US and nothing else. I don't believe that at all (looks like a scary season to me) which I edited into the response.

As to 94L, it will be interesting to see the evolution over the next 36-48 hours. It doesn't look to me like it would get particularly strong. Models mostly show a weak surface reflection, but some of them have shown the energy stronger in the mid and upper levels (possibly some hybrid characteristics or a trailing ULL?). If nothing else, Florida will get some rain with maybe some feeder bands in WFL/AL/MS/LA/TX(?) . Some of the upper runs show that the energy may be pushed back toward the NE Gulf with a front. Who knows? It will be an interesting week.

[KWT]

Its a classic messy set-up Steve, these don't tend to happen as often in La Ninas but of course that doesn't mean it won't happen. Most models do indeed develop something even if its weak and that seems like a reasonable outcome.

[Aquawind]

[StormClouds63]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

CZ:

Just a note of encouragement. I enjoy your posts, and encourage you to continue to express your opinions. I tend to agree with you regarding this season so far. Posters keep saying the "lid is about to blow off the pot" or "the switch is about to be turned on." We'll see. However, everyone is entitled to their opinions.

[Steve]

I agree 63. But I'd add that anyone who is adamant about whatever who turns out to be wrong needs to admit it too. (Wo)Maning-up helps maintain credibility.

[ROCK]

the 18Z NAM pops a low right off of Tampa which as we can all see the rotation is steadyly moving south. Aint going to cross at Tampa's lat...more like Miami...IMO

[Aquawind]

the 18Z NAM pops a low right off of Tampa which as we can all see the rotation is steadyly moving south. Aint going to cross at Tampa's lat...more like Miami...IMO

Convection supports that ATM..lol


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 18z (i know, i know)

36h

[KWT]

18z GFS rolling, will be interesting to see whether it continues to do what it did in the 12z run and not even get the Vort into the Gulf...

Will soon know!

[Steve]

Not enough out yet, but it shows low pressure in the Gulf on the 10m winds/6 hr precip charts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

All I have to do is look at the map above and imo the lid has come off but I guess it's all how you look at it

[KWT]

Haha Ivanhater yeah and we are yet to see the effects that any weak MJO pluse will produce, not expecting a large surge from that side of things but its getting closer, as I've been saying for goodness knows how long, the 20th will probably when things really kick off...anything before isn just a bonus...

The GFS is further north then some models but that because it takes a good deal longer to get it into the Gulf....also slows it right down just before landfall, thats several models suggesting thats possible.

[StormClouds63]

Lake Charles NWS Discussion on Sunday (8/8/10):

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING THE LATER YOU GO IN THE PERIOD. AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND WEAK CIRCULATION EAST OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSENSUS TAKES THE MIDDLE LEVEL WAVE/VORT MAX...WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION...AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WILL INCREASE POPS FROM EAST TO WEST TO THE CHANCE RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AT-LEAST SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

[vacanechaser]

The problem is when we have the same conversation every day. If you think it is going to be an inactive season, that is fine, but we don't need to hear about it every hour. This is not directed at anyone in particular.
Back to models..

okay, I promise I won't mention anything about it anymore for the rest of the year.

No keep on posting your thoughts. Seems like everytime mentions they don't think this season is going to be as active as predicted they get jumped on by a select few people. I don't recall you ever insulting anybody so please keep on posting your thoughts. They're as valid as anyone elses around here.

they are valid thoughts.. correct.. after a few hundred times of seeing it and reading it and its not even august 15th yet, it gets old... i can understand where a few folks are coming from...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team