WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.7N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.1N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.6N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.6N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.4N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 117.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 37 NM WEST. A 271727Z TRMM 37H IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON
THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. BASED ON THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC, THE 27/12Z
POSITION WAS RELOCATED ABOUT 85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE 27/12Z
WARNING POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES
BASED ON 2 SHIP OBSERVATIONS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER, WHICH
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS OF 180/30 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1001 MB. TD
07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BUT
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDS
ACROSS EASTERN CHINA FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH (CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO EASTERN CHINA). THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS (UKMO, WBAR, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, JGSM AND GFS) ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS. THE LATEST GFS
AID DEPICTS A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TRACK EAST OF TAIWAN WHICH IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT. ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS SHOWS ERRONEOUS
INTERACTION AND MERGER WITH TWO OTHER 850 MB VORTICITY CENTERS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO MARGINAL
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN
TO 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT TD 07W IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

12z ECM now agrees with the JWTC on taking this northwards and much weaker on this run, probably only a TS.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like the shears been at work with this one overnight however I fully expect it to develop as it moves further north into a more favourable environment. The ECMWF run shows a very erratic track so a big guess as to final landfall location at the moment!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's prognostic reasoning from JTWC no. 4, note at the end they think this could become stronger if it spends more time over water:

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 272213Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS DIRECTLY OVER
THE CENTER, WHICH INDICATE SURFACE WINDS OF 180/30 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR
1001 MB.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 BUT SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RE-BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CHINA FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH (CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO EASTERN CHINA). THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (UKMO, WBAR, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, JGSM
AND GFS) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS. THE
LATEST GFS AID DEPICTS A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TRACK EAST OF
TAIWAN WHICH IS HIGHLY SUSPECT. ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS SHOWS
ERRONEOUS INTERACTION AND MERGER WITH TWO OTHER 850 MB
VORTICITY CENTERS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 07W MAY INTENSIFY
TO MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH IF THE DURATION OVER WATER IS
LONGER E.G., SYSTEM SLOWS OR TURNS NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED.
C. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.//

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 17.6N 117.4E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 20.0N 117.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.2N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.1N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.0N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.8N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.6N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 117.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Vis:


IR:


Microwave:

[supercane]

WTPH RPMM 280000
TTT WARNING 04

AT 28 0000 UTC TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 290000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD

[supercane]

And from Vietnam:


07 Saturday, August 28, 2010 17.4 117.6 TD 56 km/hour
07 Sunday, August 29, 2010 19.9 117.4 TS 65 km/hour

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 18.1N 117.2E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 20.6N 116.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 18.6N 116.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 20.6N 116.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

[supercane]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 280900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.7N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.0N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.8N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.4N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.1N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.9N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.7N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.9N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 117.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 281034Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWING PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW REFLECTIVITY CLOUDS CURVING
INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES NEAR
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER AIR DATA NEAR
HONG KONG INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AT 500 MB. BY TAU 48, A
SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN CHINA ASSUMES STEERING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS WHICH DEPICTS AN IMMEDIATE SHARP DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK ENVELOPE. A NOTABLE SOLUTION FROM ECMWF DEPICTS A LOOPING
MOTION AFTER TAU 12, INDICATING A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EAST OF TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.
C. BY TAU 72, TS 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Last afternoon vis:


Latest IR:


Latest microwave:

[supercane]

Doesn't look like overwhelming shear on the CIMSS analysis, but apparently enough to blow the convection to the SW:

[KWT]

Yeah there is shear but the convection looks pretty strong right now, maybe enough to tempt an upgrade but we will see.

[supercane]

WTSS20 VHHH 281345
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 281200 UTC, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002
HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE
EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT
EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

[StormingB81]

wow it has blown up on the sat images..wonder if it can make it to a typhoon

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 19.1N 116.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 20.7N 116.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Latest ASCAT pass shows well-defined circulation with 25kt winds:

[KWT]

Yeah and importantly the system is right under the convection now which suggests it probably will strengthen decently.