ATL: NICOLE - Models

[cycloneye]

Yep Gator. 54 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

I think in order to get this accurate a definite center has to be well established and deepen a bit.

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...

I would wait until we get the 00z runs with the PREDICT flight data. Additionally, if 96L does form near the Yucatan, this run can be thrown out, seeing how it develops around the Cayman Islands.

I think that how much this affects FL will depend on which part of the disturbance the LLC comes from.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...mostly because the shear is going to be screaming out of the west...

Somehow, we may not even get much rain when all is said and done, just NW winds and dry air.

At 54 hours GFS has the a 996 mb low right over SE Florida.

[Wthrman13]

But how can you say that 60% of the time the models you depend on will be wrong? Are you not also saying that other forecasts predicated on model output such as track and intensity of already formed storms also has a better chance of not verifying than of verifying? Maybe they trust output on developed storms but not on cyclone genesis.

I think that is putting too fine a point on it; That is, I don't think they are thinking that way (that the models are wrong 60% of the time). Rather, they are being cautious in the timing of development into a TC or STC, by giving it moderate probabilities. It's a more uncertain forecast than usual because it is unclear to what extent extratropical processes will be involved in development. I wouldn't read too much into it. I agree, I would probably go higher than 40%, but otherwise, it makes sense to be cautious. And yes, you are right, they (the NHC) would put more weight on model forecasts of an existing storm over model forecasts of cyclogenesis. Anyway, I'm not trying to nitpick, only trying to argue that the NHC is not discounting the models.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...

I would wait until we get the 00z runs with the PREDICT flight data. Additionally, if 96L does form near the Yucatan, this run can be thrown out, seeing how it develops around the Cayman Islands.

I think that how much this affects FL will depend on which part of the disturbance the LLC comes from.

GFS first shows a low at 6 hours right off the coast of Belize.

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...

I would wait until we get the 00z runs with the PREDICT flight data. Additionally, if 96L does form near the Yucatan, this run can be thrown out, seeing how it develops around the Cayman Islands.

I think that how much this affects FL will depend on which part of the disturbance the LLC comes from.

GFS first shows a low at 6 hours right off the coast of Belize.

6 hours later (12 hours into the run) it jumps to the Cayman Islands and never goes back. And what you are seeing in the first few frames is an incredibly broad area of low pressure. If 96L consolidates near the Yucatan, that is different than what this run is showing.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I would wait until we get the 00z runs with the PREDICT flight data. Additionally, if 96L does form near the Yucatan, this run can be thrown out, seeing how it develops around the Cayman Islands.

I think that how much this affects FL will depend on which part of the disturbance the LLC comes from.

GFS first shows a low at 6 hours right off the coast of Belize.

6 hours later (12 hours into the run) it jumps to the Cayman Islands and never goes back. And what you are seeing in the first few frames is an incredibly broad area of low pressure. If 96L consolidates near the Yucatan, that is different than what this run is showing.[/quote][/quote][/quote]That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.

[artist]

I would wait until we get the 00z runs with the PREDICT flight data. Additionally, if 96L does form near the Yucatan, this run can be thrown out, seeing how it develops around the Cayman Islands.

I think that how much this affects FL will depend on which part of the disturbance the LLC comes from.

GFS first shows a low at 6 hours right off the coast of Belize.

6 hours later (12 hours into the run) it jumps to the Cayman Islands and never goes back. And what you are seeing in the first few frames is an incredibly broad area of low pressure. If 96L consolidates near the Yucatan, that is different than what this run is showing.

[/quote][/quote]That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.[/quote]
if you go back in this thread you will see where they initiated another ships run over the Yucatan-
Code:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1948 UTC MON SEP 27 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100927 1800 100928 0600 100928 1800 100929 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 88.0W 18.4N 87.0W 17.9N 85.7W 18.1N 83.5W
BAMD 18.4N 88.0W 18.2N 87.1W 17.7N 86.0W 17.8N 84.2W
BAMM 18.4N 88.0W 18.3N 86.9W 17.6N 85.7W 17.5N 83.7W
LBAR 18.4N 88.0W 18.6N 87.3W 19.3N 87.2W 20.6N 87.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100929 1800 100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 80.9W 25.6N 76.2W 30.4N 72.8W 34.6N 68.5W
BAMD 19.1N 82.0W 23.1N 78.0W 24.6N 75.2W 25.9N 72.8W
BAMM 18.6N 81.4W 23.0N 76.9W 25.6N 74.3W 28.5N 72.4W
LBAR 22.9N 87.2W 28.3N 87.2W 31.9N 84.2W 33.9N 76.5W
SHIP 61KTS 72KTS 72KTS 67KTS
DSHP 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 88.0W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 88.9W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 89.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Evil Jeremy]

That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.

Exactly. If it does consolidate off of the Yucatan, we can somewhat discard these model runs. It would change how it affects FL.

[MGC]

Yep, depending on where the low forms will play a big roll in its future track. Could mean the difference of heading up the west coast or east coast....MGC

[CalmBeforeStorm]

That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.

Exactly. If it does consolidate off of the Yucatan, we can somewhat discard these model runs. It would change how it affects FL.

Since no models show that happening why would you think it would?

[Evil Jeremy]

That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.

Exactly. If it does consolidate off of the Yucatan, we can somewhat discard these model runs. It would change how it affects FL.

Since no models show that happening why would you think it would?

... because it's happening right now! The models aren't 100% accurate you know.

[artist]

That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.

Exactly. If it does consolidate off of the Yucatan, we can somewhat discard these model runs. It would change how it affects FL.

Since no models show that happening why would you think it would?

calm - here is a model run the NHC did over the Yucatan today. It was on page 1 or 2 in this thread-
Code:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1948 UTC MON SEP 27 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100927 1800 100928 0600 100928 1800 100929 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 88.0W 18.4N 87.0W 17.9N 85.7W 18.1N 83.5W
BAMD 18.4N 88.0W 18.2N 87.1W 17.7N 86.0W 17.8N 84.2W
BAMM 18.4N 88.0W 18.3N 86.9W 17.6N 85.7W 17.5N 83.7W
LBAR 18.4N 88.0W 18.6N 87.3W 19.3N 87.2W 20.6N 87.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100929 1800 100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 80.9W 25.6N 76.2W 30.4N 72.8W 34.6N 68.5W
BAMD 19.1N 82.0W 23.1N 78.0W 24.6N 75.2W 25.9N 72.8W
BAMM 18.6N 81.4W 23.0N 76.9W 25.6N 74.3W 28.5N 72.4W
LBAR 22.9N 87.2W 28.3N 87.2W 31.9N 84.2W 33.9N 76.5W
SHIP 61KTS 72KTS 72KTS 67KTS
DSHP 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 88.0W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 88.9W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 89.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

I pasted this a few posts up but it messed up for some reason.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

That's a big if and I'm not aware of any model showing it consolidating off the Yucatan. They only show the low first present there.

Exactly. If it does consolidate off of the Yucatan, we can somewhat discard these model runs. It would change how it affects FL.

Since no models show that happening why would you think it would?

What evidence is there that it's happening. The lowest pressure was inland until just recently and it's moving NNE just as all models have predicted. There is no evidence it's going to sit there.

[Evil Jeremy]

What evidence is there that it's happening. The lowest pressure was inland until just recently and it's moving NNE just as all models have predicted. There is no evidence it's going to sit there.

Of course its not going to sit there, but if the LLC forms near the Yucatan, as compared to near the Cayman Islands, it can have big implications on the track. And right now, its forming near the Yucatan, not near the Caymans, as the models suggested (minus the BAMs, because I think they run where the NHC tells them to). Remember, the first few frames of the GFS run was showing a broad circulation before it consolidated near the Caymans.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

What evidence is there that it's happening. The lowest pressure was inland until just recently and it's moving NNE just as all models have predicted. There is no evidence it's going to sit there.

Of course its not going to sit there, but if the LLC forms near the Yucatan, as compared to near the Cayman Islands, it can have big implications on the track. And right now, its forming near the Yucatan, not near the Caymans, as the models suggested (minus the BAMs, because I think they run where the NHC tells them to). Remember, the first few frames of the GFS run was showing a broad circulation before it consolidated near the Caymans.

The 18z GFS is showing a closed 1006 mb low off the Yucatan at 6 hours. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18/fp1_006. What's happening now is what was supposed to happen.

[Evil Jeremy]

What evidence is there that it's happening. The lowest pressure was inland until just recently and it's moving NNE just as all models have predicted. There is no evidence it's going to sit there.

Of course its not going to sit there, but if the LLC forms near the Yucatan, as compared to near the Cayman Islands, it can have big implications on the track. And right now, its forming near the Yucatan, not near the Caymans, as the models suggested (minus the BAMs, because I think they run where the NHC tells them to). Remember, the first few frames of the GFS run was showing a broad circulation before it consolidated near the Caymans.

The 18z GFS is showing a closed 1006 mb low off the Yucatan at 6 hours. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18/fp1_006. What's happening now is what was supposed to happen.

Yes, but look how broad the low is. I am talking about where its going to consolidate. In this run, it consolidates around the Caymans.

[caneman]

To Evil Jeremy's rescue. Not that he needs it but the NHC did say earlier today that later tonight the model runs would have more current info ingested in them. To try and determine where exactly this will head without an LLC nor the current info ingested would be foolish, irresposnible and simply guesswork at best.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd still not get too far into the exact track from the models simply because there is still a little while to go with this and in this sort of set-up whilst the broad idea of a NNE track looks very solid, obviously there will be a big difference to the weather if it sets-up further to the west then the models are suggesting.

Too early yet to know if this is indeed the case.