SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

[Crostorm]

07/0830 UTC 14.2S 79.8E T4.0/4.0 EDZANI -- Southwest Indian

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 75 knots

[HURAKAN]

Very solid

[HURAKAN]

07/0830 UTC 14.2S 79.8E T5.0/5.0 EDZANI -- Southwest Indian

90 knots

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 672
WTIO30 FMEE 071220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/07 AT 1200 UTC :
14.5S / 79.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/08 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/08 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.4E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.2S/75.8E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 17.0S/74.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 18.0S/72.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 19.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
THE SYSTEM KEEP ON INTENSIFYING DUE TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONNEMENTAL
CONDITIONS, UN EYE IS VISIBLE ON SATELITE IIMAGERY SINCE 04Z.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, THE STEERING FLOW IS
A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST EXISTING IN THE LOW AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
A POLEWARDS OUTFLOW SHOULD BUID BETWEEN TAU24 AND TAU36 AS A SHORT
WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS ALSO
OVER
HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS, BUT UP TO TAU 36H SST WILL BE THE
LIMITATINF
PARAMETER, AND INDUCE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 100 knots

[HURAKAN]

07/1430 UTC 14.8S 79.3E T6.0/6.0 EDZANI -- Southwest Indian

115 knots

[Macrocane]

After looking very bad a couple of days ago it got its act together and now is a beautiful cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 79.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 79.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.1S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.6S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.2S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.0S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.5S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.6S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.5S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED PINHOLE EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL WHILE
MAINTAINING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A
071241Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 07S IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD, PROVIDING AN EFFICIENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. FURTHER FUELING ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
ARE THE HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE TC'S TRACK. GIVEN
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST WITH UKMET AND GFDN ON THE FAR RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE,
FAVORING A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE ENSEMBLE FAVORS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[Cookie]

wow what a beauty thanks for all the updates

[P.K.]

Upgraded, up to 100kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 071841

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/07 AT 1800 UTC :
14.9S / 78.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 320 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 15.5S/77.7E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 16.2S/76.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.7S/74.6E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 17.5S/72.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 18.5S/70.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 19.9S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0

THE SYSTEM KEEP ON INTENSIFYING DUE TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONNEMENTAL
CONDITIONS, RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS LOWERING. MICRO WAVE PICTURES
(F16 AT 14.03Z AND TRMM AT 14.06Z) SHOWS AN CHANGING EYE CYCLE.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, THE STEERING FLOW IS
A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST EXISTING IN THE LOW AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
A POLEWARDS OUTFLOW SHOULD BUILD BETWEEN TAU12 AND TAU24 DUE TO A
SHORT
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD. SYSTEM IS ALSO OVER HIGH HEAT
CONTENT
WATERS, BUT UP TO TAU 24 TO 36, SST WILL BE THE LIMITATING PARAMETER,
AND
INDUCE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

Another very small system

[Crostorm]

wow




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JAN 2010 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 15:04:22 S Lon : 78:36:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 907.2mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +2.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

What is it with storms bombing out in the Southern Hemisphere this year?

I would guess 125 kt looking at it.