ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Steve]

Hey Rock,

You might be right, but I think the main energy is still due east of Daytona where recent IR loop is showing some convection building. I might be wrong but see what you think. Not sure where it will head west at the moment. You can barely see the rotation on J-ville Radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Maybe better on the IR?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Thats quite a potent run there Ivanhater compared to the other models which generally don't see too much going on. I suspect that this one will take a while to get going as they normally do in these set-ups, hence why Alicia type systems are rare...

I'd suspect the Global models will be closer to the mark but we will see!

[srainhoutx]

Careful. That is highly experimental. Met Tech continues to refine that model.

[Weatherfreak000]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

CZ:

Just a note of encouragement. I enjoy your posts, and encourage you to continue to express your opinions. I tend to agree with you regarding this season so far. Posters keep saying the "lid is about to blow off the pot" or "the switch is about to be turned on." We'll see. However, everyone is entitled to their opinions.

You and all these posters are completely misanalyzing the situation that began with ivanhater than my post.

We LIKE CZ's opinions and we FULLY encourage the individual to post at his discretion. We merely noticed the poster makes a habit to go to many topics and post that opinion and that's all. It gets kind of old. Just like the EURO debate....it gets old.

Your going to draw conflict when your impatient on this forum. Pro or Anti development.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL for 94L 103 KNOTS


HOUR:108.0 LONG: -93.27 LAT: 28.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.28
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -94.06 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.18
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.01 LAT: 29.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.16 LAT: 29.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.51

[dixiebreeze]

Invest 94 Recon schedule:

Tropical Weather Statements
448
NOUS42 KNHC 081500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF.....

LA as a weak TS.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL continuest to be a model....

[Macrocane]

That would be scary, but I don't thnik that will verify. IMO the GFDL is overdoing the intenisty of 95L and underdoing the intensity of 93L.

[TwisterFanatic]

Goodness GFDL

[KWT]

Good ole GFDL has to go mental at some point doesn't it, would be the strongest home brew for a very long time if that came off!

HWRF looks more reasonable, stays a TD for most of the time before finally making it to TS.

Also note how both models take till about 120hrs to get inland, quite a few models are suggesting this is of now.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 090030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC MON AUG 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100809 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100809  0000   100809  1200   100810  0000   100810  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.5N  79.5W   29.7N  80.2W   29.9N  81.4W   30.2N  83.3W
BAMD    29.5N  79.5W   28.6N  80.4W   28.0N  81.9W   27.5N  83.8W
BAMM    29.5N  79.5W   29.3N  80.5W   29.1N  81.9W   29.0N  84.0W
LBAR    29.5N  79.5W   29.2N  80.3W   29.0N  81.6W   28.7N  83.2W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          29KTS          31KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          25KTS          30KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100811  0000   100812  0000   100813  0000   100814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.3N  85.2W   30.5N  88.9W   31.0N  91.3W   31.8N  92.8W
BAMD    27.4N  85.8W   28.4N  90.1W   30.0N  93.7W   31.4N  96.8W
BAMM    28.9N  86.0W   29.5N  90.0W   30.6N  93.0W   31.9N  95.3W
LBAR    28.7N  85.1W   28.8N  89.6W   29.4N  93.7W   30.6N  96.9W
SHIP        34KTS          38KTS          42KTS          45KTS
DSHP        32KTS          31KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  29.5N LONCUR =  79.5W DIRCUR = 225DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  30.1N LONM12 =  78.9W DIRM12 = 213DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  31.1N LONM24 =  78.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KWT]

IF a track like the GFDL were to come off, probably would have a good shot at being a hurricane like it shows...but the key thing to note is most models bring it inland a good deal further east and given the current east coast troughing that seems a far more likely outcome.

[cycloneye]

00z SHIP Run

Shear decreases as time goes by at this run.

Code: Select all

                  *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL942010  08/09/10  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    26    28    29    31    34    36    38    40    42    44    45
V (KT) LAND       25    25    26    25    25    30    32    35    31    29    28    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    25    22    24    28    29    31    29    28    27    27    27

SHEAR (KT)        23    26    25    14    11    15    14    14    15     7    11     5     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     5     3    -4     1     3     1     0     2     0     1     0     1    -1
SHEAR DIR        336   347     2    11   360    45   106   108   122   130   143   126   149
SST (C)         29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.1  29.9  30.2  30.3  30.6  30.6  30.1  29.5  28.2
POT. INT. (KT)   149   149   150   150   152   167   171   171   171   170   170   158   138
ADJ. POT. INT.   123   124   125   127   131   144   150   152   156   153   142   132   114
200 MB T (C)   -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     8     9    10     9    11     9    14     9    15     9    14
700-500 MB RH     55    52    54    55    51    51    54    52    50    53    54    49    50
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     7     8     8     9     8     9     7     6     5     3     2  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -5   -21   -10     1    -3   -14    -8   -21   -19   -21   -16   -40   -44
200 MB DIV        51    -2   -30    -4     7   -11    -3     1   -10     3   -16    -4   -13
LAND (KM)        151   105    55   -13   -81    87   106   108   -14   -28   -92  -153  -262
LAT (DEG N)     29.5  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.1  29.0  28.9  29.1  29.5  30.0  30.6  31.1  31.9
LONG(DEG W)     79.5  80.0  80.5  81.2  81.9  84.0  86.0  88.1  90.0  91.7  93.0  94.2  95.3
STM SPEED (KT)     4     4     5     6     8     9     9     9     8     7     6     6     6
HEAT CONTENT      52    11     7     0    17     7    49    56     0    41    39    34     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/  5      CX,CY:  -3/ -3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  617  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   7.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:   5.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   6.  12.  19.  25.  30.  33.  35.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     2.   4.   6.   7.   9.   8.   7.   5.   5.   5.   6.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -8.  -8.  -7.  -6.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  11.  13.  15.  17.  19.  20.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010     INVEST 08/09/10  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  19.9 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 101.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.8 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:   4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.9 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  17.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010     INVEST 08/09/10  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010     INVEST 08/09/2010  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[Dean4Storms]

I think it stands a fair chance 40% chance if it becomes tropical that it could make strong TS status.

[Steve]

>>Good ole GFDL has to go mental at some point doesn't it, would be the strongest home brew for a very long time if that came off!..

Yeah, for sure. But for argument sake, could we even see a hurricane out of that track? You really don't see that track as it is very often. I think there were a couple of tropical storms this decade (Edouard and the one Barometer Bob observed forming off J'ville if it was before then) that moved west across the northern Gulf, but it seems like riding 28-28.5, even with the hottest water in the entire basin, wouldn't bear a hurricane I don't know.

[Stormcenter]

I think it would be too close to the coast to become anything more than a strong TS or minimal hurricane assuming
that latest tracks verify. In addition conditions don't seem to be ideal in the GOM this upcoming week. JMHO

[Frank P]

>>Good ole GFDL has to go mental at some point doesn't it, would be the strongest home brew for a very long time if that came off!..

Yeah, for sure. But for argument sake, could we even see a hurricane out of that track? You really don't see that track as it is very often. I think there were a couple of tropical storms this decade (Edouard and the one Barometer Bob observed forming off J'ville if it was before then) that moved west across the northern Gulf, but it seems like riding 28-28.5, even with the hottest water in the entire basin, wouldn't bear a hurricane I don't know.

Elena sorta did it in 85... came up towards the MS coast from the south out of the Gulf, took a hard right to FL, sat right off the FL coast for a while then back tracked WNW towards the MS coast again.. came in at a really weird angle and for a Cat 3 storm had very little storm surge, eye went right over my house, surge was about 8 feet, but the wind was pretty wild, thought my Oaks were going to blow down on my house .. TS Isadore 02 (~9 feet) and Hurr Gustov (~10-11 feet) back in 08 had higher storm surges in my neighborhood.. Katrina ~26, Camille ~21 rank 1 and 2 in my life time... Gustov is third and the center was about 150 miles west of here.. amazing

[Ivanhater]