ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[ronjon]

Here it is BA. Yes the vorticity is pushed SW down the coast to JAX and then heads west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_su_loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Yep, the GFS goes right off the Carolina coast then gets shoved back SW like some of the models were showing yesterday..quite a different run for the GFS

[ronjon]

12Z CMC - recurve.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010080312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[TwisterFanatic]

Is it just me or are the models wanting to develop Colin even stronger than yesterday?

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET sets up a potentially hairy situation for the Carolinas after the forecast period.

Code: Select all

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2010

        TROPICAL STORM COLIN      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N  48.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042010

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.08.2010  14.6N  48.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.08.2010  14.9N  52.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.08.2010  16.1N  56.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.08.2010  17.6N  60.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.08.2010  19.5N  63.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.08.2010  20.6N  65.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2010  22.2N  68.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.08.2010  23.8N  71.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.08.2010  24.8N  72.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.08.2010  26.6N  73.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.08.2010  28.8N  74.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.08.2010  30.3N  75.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.08.2010  31.5N  76.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

[Macrocane]

Yes, since last night the models have been forecasting a stronger system than on previous runs, that means that Colin will be able to survive the shear and then intensify, I'm not sure if that's going to happen with the actual presentation of Colin. I wouldn't be surprised if Colin is torn apart although it could regenrate once the shear relaxes.

[Ivanhater]

Almost all models show intensification today

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[SeminoleWind]

Here it is BA. Yes the vorticity is pushed SW down the coast to JAX and then heads west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_su_loop.shtml

Thats one crazy run from the GFS
I think the TVCN had that same type of jog to the SW and the UKMET has shifted also to the west.



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[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Ivan,SHIP goes to hurricane so there is another one.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 031848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC TUE AUG 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN (AL042010) 20100803 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100803  1800   100804  0600   100804  1800   100805  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N  52.4W   16.7N  56.4W   18.5N  60.3W   20.2N  63.7W
BAMD    15.4N  52.4W   16.4N  55.4W   17.8N  58.3W   19.4N  60.7W
BAMM    15.4N  52.4W   16.4N  55.8W   17.9N  59.0W   19.4N  61.7W
LBAR    15.4N  52.4W   16.8N  56.7W   18.2N  60.6W   19.9N  64.0W
SHIP        35KTS          38KTS          43KTS          49KTS
DSHP        35KTS          38KTS          43KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100805  1800   100806  1800   100807  1800   100808  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.9N  66.7W   24.2N  71.1W   25.5N  73.6W   26.8N  75.7W
BAMD    21.0N  62.6W   23.5N  64.7W   24.9N  66.5W   25.7N  69.6W
BAMM    21.0N  64.0W   23.4N  67.3W   25.3N  70.1W   27.3N  73.3W
LBAR    21.8N  66.6W   25.4N  68.9W   29.2N  68.9W   32.2N  68.7W
SHIP        53KTS          56KTS          64KTS          67KTS
DSHP        53KTS          56KTS          64KTS          67KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.4N LONCUR =  52.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  30KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  46.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  25KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  42.4W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =   75NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  30NM
 


[Ivanhater]

Euro shifts west as well and scrapes Hatteras

[lebron23]

Models shift west.

[HurrMark]

Models shift west.

Probably doesn't matter much unless it can regenerate.

[lebron23]

It will.

[ROCK]

if anyone is looking at the current situation.....Colin is in survival mode....LLC exposed and moving at 36mph.....out running its own convection right into the ULL....i think I mentioned that last night.... could have been just luck though.....

Ivan, time to look elsewhere IMO.....Another lull for a few days at least....

[Ivanhater]

Well if it can survive...models have shifted a great deal west today...Carolina coast increasingly in the middle

[meebo]

Will the NHP follow these models? Is this a doom sceneario?

[Macrocane]

It will.

That's a very informative post Would you like to tell us why do you think that?

[jcoffee]

The NHC should provide easy to follow tracks of these models to the public for each invest and named storm. The public should have every last bit of information the NHC has provided on a massive website. There should also be videos explaining how to read each map and what is means. We are paying for it with our taxes and we deserve absolute 100% knowledge and data. This would be very good!

[AJC3]

Will the NHC follow these models? Is this a doom scenario?

Doom? Seriously, if you read the majority of posts, there's no "doom" about this scenario, the main question here is will there be anything left of Colin to forecast for the next several days. While the scenario of Colin "weakening" to an open wave, could eventually bring Colin, or more importantly, it's remnants, closer to the SE coast...if we assume advisories are stopped, which is looking increasingly likely, it also brings in the scenario that Colin may never regenerate at all.

[solomon25]

The models are public. I found some right here! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html